Each week there's a favorable story out about J.J. McCarthy. Minnesota's first-round pick a year ago has met every checkpoint in his development, according to team officials. Something has to be said to counter all the Aaron Rodgers speculation.
A knee injury cost McCarthy his entire rookie season, but the plan is to start him in Year 2. Assuming the team doesn't sign Rodgers, that is. If it is McCarthy in the lineup, what can be expected from him?
We know that Kevin O'Connell operates a quarterback-friendly system. Sam Darnold was the 7th-best fantasy passer last season. Kirk Cousins was a top-12 quarterback four times in six seasons. Even Nick Mullens had a nice little run of production the year Cousins got hurt. So McCarthy definitely has that going for him.
But when first-round quarterbacks don't play as rookies, it's rare that they break out with strong numbers in year 2. This century there's one shining example, a couple of so-so ones, and a lot of guys who didn't do much of anything.
Since 2000, there have been 16 other quarterbacks drafted in the first round who played sparingly, if at all, in their rookie seasons. (I went with fewer than 100 pass attempts as the threshold.) A couple were hurt, like McCarthy, but most were stuck behind established veterans.
Of those 16 quarterbacks, one was a superstar in Year 2: Patrick Mahomes. Drafted with the same pick McCarthy was, for those who are superstitious. Two others (Tim Tebow and Carson Palmer) put up top 20 numbers in their second seasons.
None of the rest did much of anything. Some (Anthony Richardson, Trey Lance) got hurt. Some (Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love) remained stuck behind an established veteran passer. Others just struggled.
Table shows rookie and Year 2 numbers from all those previous quarterbacks, sorted by second-season fantasy ranking at their position. (For Year 1 I showed just passing numbers, for Year 2 passing and rushing stats, the key fantasy components.) I included Michael Penix in the table even though he doesn't quite fit the criteria (105 pass attempts as a rookie), though he's in a similar situation to McCarthy -- looking for a breakout as the clear starter in his second season.
| FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS WHO PLAYED SPARINGLY, 2000- | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft | Pk | Player | Yr1 (Cm-Att-Yds-TD) | Yr2 (Pa-TD-Ru-TD) | Rk |
| 2017 | 10 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 22-35-284-0 | 5097-50-272-2 | 1 |
| 2010 | 25 | Tim Tebow, Den. | 41-82-654-5 | 1729-12-660-6 | 19 |
| 2003 | 1 | Carson Palmer, Cin. | 0-0-0-0 | 2897-18-47-1 | 20 |
| 2007 | 1 | JaMarcus Russell, Oak. | 36-66-373-2 | 2423-13-127-1 | 24 |
| 2023 | 4 | Anthony Richardson, Ind. | 50-84-577-3 | 1814-8-499-6 | 25 |
| 2011 | 8 | Jake Locker, Tenn. | 34-66-542-4 | 2176-10-291-1 | 29 |
| 2005 | 25 | Jason Campbell, Wash. | 0-0-0-0 | 1297-10-107-0 | 33 |
| 2014 | 22 | Johnny Manziel, Clev. | 18-35-175-0 | 1500-7-230-0 | 34 |
| 2004 | 22 | J.P. Losman, Buff. | 3-5-32-0 | 1340-8-154-0 | 34 |
| 2007 | 22 | Brady Quinn, Clev. | 3-8-45-0 | 518-2-21-0 | 42 |
| 2003 | 22 | Rex Grossman, Chi. | 38-72-437-2 | 607-1-48-1 | 43 |
| 2016 | 26 | Paxton Lynch, Den. | 49-83-497-2 | 295-2-30-0 | 48 |
| 2020 | 26 | Jordan Love, G.B. | 0-0-0-0 | 411-2-27-0 | 50 |
| 2021 | 3 | Trey Lance, S.F. | 41-71-603-5 | 194-0-67-0 | 62 |
| 2005 | 24 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 9-16-65-0 | 46-0-11-0 | 63 |
| 2004 | 4 | Philip Rivers, NYG | 5-8-33-1 | 115-0-1-0 | 71 |
| 2024 | 8 | Michael Penix, Atl. | 61-105-775-3 | ?-?-?-? | ? |
| 2024 | 10 | J.J. McCarthy, Minn. | 0-0-0-0 | ?-?-?-? | ? |
I don't believe the Vikings are going to sign Aaron Rodgers. Ideally he'll just sign with the Steelers soon and we can put this story to bed. Minnesota will probably move ahead with McCarthy.
If they do, he's not going to be Mahomes, but operating O'Connell's offense, top-15 numbers seem reasonable. If Darnold can excel in the system, no reason to think McCarthy can't also be successful.
--Andy Richardson