Alec Pierce was good at getting downfield last year. Only Ja’Marr Chase had more receptions of 40-plus yards. But I’m not confident that Pierce will ever ascend to being much more.
The Colts are well stocked with other wide receivers. Michael Pittman and Josh Downs have had some success. Adonai Mitchell had a lousy rookie season, but he could develop into being a lot more.
That could leave Pierce in a role as a lightly used deep threat. He averaged 22.3 yards per catch last year, but he only caught 37 passes.
Keon Coleman and Christian Watson similarly were used mostly as deep threats. Watson averaged 21.4 yards per reception but caught only 29 passes in 15 games. Coleman averaged 19.2 yards per reception but also caught only 29 passes (while missing four games).
In the case of Coleman, he’s a little different in that he was a rookie, and there was also some effort to use him as a fade-route option around the end zone. He looks like the most promising of these three. With Watson coming off an ACL injury and Pierce probably heading into the 2025 projecting to be the 3rd- or 4th-best wide receiver on his own team, I’m not certain those guys will be getting rostered in August.
In general, the hit rate hasn’t been high when selecting receivers who’ve had some success at being deep threats, hoping that they’ll become more.
In the 32-team era, there have been 18 other wide receivers who’ve averaged over 19 yards per catch while finishing with 500-900 yards – guys seemingly on the edge of something. But only two of those receivers put up notable numbers in their next season (2005 Plaxico Burress, who signed a free-agent deal with the Giants, and Mike Wallace, who had a big second season for the Steelers).
Of these 18 receivers, five others at least finished 38th to 43rd in cumulative production, using PPR scoring. (All presumably ranked a little higher in standard formats, where yards become more valuable relative to catches).
Chart below shows all receivers who averaged over 19 yards per catch and finished with 500-900 yards. Players who moved up into the top dozen among receivers the next year tagged with double dots. Guys ranking 38th to 43rd tagged with one dot.
| DEEP-THREAT RECEIVERS (the next year) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2004 | Joey Galloway, T.B. | 53 | 33 | 416 | 12.6 | 5 | 112.5 | 56 |
| 2004 | Kelly Campbell, Min. | 32 | 19 | 364 | 19.2 | 1 | 61.8 | 95 |
| 2005 | •• Plaxico Burress, NYG | 166 | 76 | 1214 | 16.0 | 7 | 239.4 | 11 |
| 2007 | Donte Stallworth, N.E. | 75 | 46 | 697 | 15.2 | 3 | 134.9 | 51 |
| 2007 | Devery Henderson, N.O. | 43 | 20 | 409 | 20.5 | 3 | 80.9 | 81 |
| 2009 | • Devery Henderson, N.O. | 83 | 51 | 804 | 15.8 | 2 | 144.7 | 43 |
| 2009 | Justin Gage, Ten. | 67 | 28 | 383 | 13.7 | 3 | 84.3 | 80 |
| 2010 | •• Mike Wallace, Pitt. | 98 | 60 | 1257 | 21.0 | 10 | 249.6 | 9 |
| 2011 | • Malcom Floyd, S.D. | 70 | 43 | 856 | 19.9 | 5 | 158.6 | 38 |
| 2011 | Anthony Armstrong, Was. | 27 | 7 | 103 | 14.7 | 2 | 31.2 | 126 |
| 2012 | • Malcom Floyd, S.D. | 85 | 56 | 814 | 14.5 | 5 | 167.4 | 38 |
| 2012 | Johnny Knox, Chi. (IR) | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2014 | • Kenny Stills, N.O. | 83 | 63 | 931 | 14.8 | 3 | 173.9 | 39 |
| 2015 | • Martavis Bryant, Pitt. | 92 | 50 | 765 | 15.3 | 6 | 172.2 | 39 |
| 2016 | Torrey Smith, S.F. | 49 | 20 | 267 | 13.4 | 3 | 64.7 | 100 |
| 2019 | Robert Foster, Buff. | 18 | 3 | 64 | 21.3 | 0 | 12.3 | 161 |
| 2020 | Mecole Hardman, K.C. | 62 | 41 | 560 | 13.7 | 4 | 132.1 | 60 |
| 2021 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling, G.B. | 55 | 26 | 430 | 16.5 | 3 | 87.0 | 82 |
| 2025 | Alec Pierce, Ind. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2025 | Keon Coleman, Buff. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2025 | Christian Watson, G.B. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan