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Dolphins miss golden opportunity

Fail to take advantage of creampuff schedule

The Dolphins were a disappointment last year, and that went down despite them playing the easiest schedule in the league – not only the easiest last season, but the easiest in 25 years.

I’ve been grabbing the scheduling data for over 30 years – expected strength of schedule heading into the season, and then how things turned out – and Miami’s slate last year was definitely of the cakewalk variety. Their opponents went a combined 112-160 in their games against other teams. (So 121-168 overall, but to leave each team’s wins and losses out of its on strength of schedule, reducing the tendency of the winning teams appearing to play easier schedule – when a team goes 15-2, after all, it’s opponents go only 2-15 against them).

For the Dolphins, 112 wins versus 160 losses works out to a winning percentage of .412. That’s the lowest since the 2000 Broncos. I’ve also got the 1998 Cardinals lower.

This is all last year stuff, of course, so who cares? But I take it as an indication we can discount a little bit the nice numbers that Miami was putting up in the second half of last season (after Tua Tagovailoa returned from his injury). Miami averaged 25 points in its last 11 games, 11th-best in the league, but it presumably would have been a few ticks lower with a more typical schedule.

Washington had the 2nd-easiest schedule last year; its opponents combined to win 9 more games than Miami’s.

EASIEST SCHEDULES (since 2002)
YearTeamWLTPctRecord
2024Miami1121600.412(8-9)
2010Kansas City1001400.417(10-6)
2007Seattle1001400.417(10-6)
2023Atlanta1141580.419(7-10)
2022San Francisco1161551.428(13-4)
2007Arizona1031370.429(8-8)
2023New Orleans1171550.430(9-8)
2017Tennessee1041360.433(9-7)
2007Cleveland1041360.433(10-6)
2003Kansas City1041360.433(13-3)
2017Jacksonville1051350.438(10-6)
2012Atlanta1051350.438(13-3)
2008San Francisco1051341.440(7-9)
2018Chicago1041324.442(12-4)
2017Baltimore1061340.442(9-7)
2012Cincinnati1061340.442(10-6)
2010St. Louis1061340.442(7-9)
2009New Orleans1061340.442(13-3)
2004Atlanta1061340.442(11-5)
2020Green Bay1061331.444(13-3)
2024• Washington1211510.445(12-5)
2022LA Chargers1201502.445(10-7)
2015NY Jets1071330.446(10-6)
2008Buffalo1071330.446(7-9)
2006Chicago1071330.446(13-3)
2005Seattle1071330.446(13-3)
2004Seattle1071330.446(9-7)
2003St. Louis1071330.446(12-4)
2016Seattle1071321.448(10-5-1)
2014Houston1071321.448(9-7)

—Ian Allan

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