One of the compelling big-picture issues of 2013 drafts, I think, will be how to rank the two different groups of running backs. You like young guys? Or do you prefer older, more established options.
On the one hand, you've got Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch and Arian Foster. Peterson is 27. Lynch and Foster will be 27 on opening day. They're all punishing, physical runners, and they're all now moving into the back halves of their careers.
On the other hand, you've got three running backs who were great as rookies - Doug Martin, Alfred Morris and Trent Richardson. Go with one of those guys, and you've getting a runner who's about five years younger.
Which way do you tend to go in this debate? The more proven option? Or the younger guy on the upswing?
I'm not prepared to answer today. But I'll toss out that if you look at past running backs (as in the last 20-25 years), the track records indicate the 27-year-olds tend to be better. There's a lower bust rate.
Below are the top rookie runners of the last 25 years. All of these guys scored over 200 fantasy points in their first season (using the scoring system of 6 points for TDs and 1 for every 10 run-rec yards). But only 5 of these 19 put up better numbers in their second year.
Three were derailed by knee injuries - Ickey Woods, Robert Edwards and Jamal Lewis. Nevertheless, there are 11 other decliners in that group of 19.
If you pull out the same group of runners who are 27, the results are better. About a third of that group put up better numbers.
It's early. I'm still looking at trends and whatnot. All six of these backs, I'm sure, will be gone before the middle of the second round in the vast majority of drafts.
TOP ROOKIE RUNNERS OF LAST 25 YEARS (THE NEXT YEAR)
Yds TD Year (drafted) Running Back (rookie stats)
94 2 1988 Ickey Woods (1265-15)
1784 16 1989 Barry Sanders (1752-14)
1318 4 1993 Jerome Bettis (1673-7)
1553 14 1994 Marshall Faulk (1804-12)
1485 17 1995 Curtis Martin (1748-15)
1443 7 1996 Eddie George (1550-8)
815 6 1998 Fred Taylor (1644-17)
inj -- knee 1998 Robert Edwards (1446-12)
2303 18 1999 Edgerrin James (2139-17)
724 4 2000 Mike Anderson (1669-15)
inj -- knee 2000 Jamal Lewis (1660-6)
2172 15 2001 LaDainian Tomlinson (1603-10)
1905 14 2002 Clinton Portis (1872-17)
1425 5 2004 Willis McGahee (1297-13)
1175 10 2006 Maurice Jones-Drew (1377-16)
1885 10 2007 Adrian Peterson (1609-13)
2509 16 2008 Chris Johnson (1488-10)
854 7 2008 Steve Slaton (1659-10)
1400 4 2008 Matt Forte (1715-12)
Ian Allan
February 27, 2013