Question 1
2 QB league, 1 keeper, 5 points for TD passes, 10 teams, .5 point PPR. I have no one who’s a for-sure keeper. My best players are Vick, Julio Jones, Kaepernick, Dez Bryant, Wes Welker and Flacco. I also traded my 2nd- and 4th-round picks to get another 1st-round pick, so I have the 1st pick and the 7th pick. I’m guaranteed A.Peterson or A.Foster with the 1st pick. last year one team had both. So who do I keep and who should I draft with 7th pick thanks guys.
elton gordon (palmdale, CA)
Hold on, now. Who said you should take Peterson or Foster with the No. 1 pick? This is a double-quarterback league. That’s a huge game-changer. You have to have two good quarterbacks in that kind of format, and with there being 10 teams, every team will want to carry three. I spent a few minutes playing around with the numbers, and it’s my belief that the first seven picks in your draft should all be quarterbacks. Then, Foster, Andrew Luck and Doug Martin round out the top 10. I don’t even have Peterson in the first round. So my advice would be to keep Colin Kaepernick, then select another quarterback with the No. 1 overall pick – Brees, Brady, Rodgers-type guy. At seven, maybe you sneak in a running back there. I’ve got Dez Bryant as the No. 2 wide receiver on the board and No. 23 overall. Now if the guys in your league aren’t selecting quarterbacks in the first round, then I would advise trading those picks and loading up on picks in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th. When I dink around with the numbers, it usually works out that it’s better to trade down than trade up.
Question 2
Been in same league with same core of guys for almost 25 years. Bought the very first issue of Fantasy Index and have never gone a season without. You guys are still the class act. Now to my question. This is partly luck, I won my dynasty league the year before, but was in last place last year. When you see my keepers you will wonder how that happened. I can keep 8 players at an additional cost of $10 million, we start with $53 million and last year Brees cost me $7.9 million. Price is dependent on prior year’s performance. This year, the no-brainers are Brees, Foster, McCoy, Morris and Graham (a TE that scores like a WR at the TE position is a no brainer). My questions are, will McFadden ever deliver for me after 4 years? Or do I take a flyer on Pead? At WR, my options are Stevie Johnson, Britt, Decker and Hilton. I usually don’t keep a WR and save that extra cash for our draft. Enlighten me please.
CAL HOSKISON (CARPINTERIA, CA)
Thanks for the kind words. They’re appreciated. Any time we’re talking about auctions and salary caps, I want to know what everyone is worth. Forget for a moment who’s on your team, and what should be the price tags on each of the guys on all of the teams. What is their “fair market value”. You do this by creating a stat projection for every player. Then you decide which guys at each position are only worth $1 (or $100,000, or whatever your minimum salary is). For the guys worth more than the minimum, you can now create their player values. It’s represented by the production they’ll give you BEYOND the minimum-value guys. Suppose, for example, that you decide you’re not paying more than the minimum for a kicker unless he’s going to score more than 120 points. Perhaps you feel Stephen Gostkowski will score 135 points. Than Gostkowski’s working value is 15 points (135 – 120). You do that for all players at all positions, then you mesh that with the contracts. There should be a pot of about $600 million in your league ($53 million times whatever number of teams there are). That $600 total divided by the total production of the non-minimum salary guys gives you the price of those “above-and-beyond” stats. Suppose, for example, that it works out to each fantasy point being worth $200,000. Then Gostkowski would be worth $3 million ($200,000 x 15). (Actually, a little more, since you have to account for players being required some minimum salary). You do that for all the players and it becomes very apparent who you should keep. That process is easier if you use the “custom rankings” feature on our website. But where were we? Yes, McFadden. He’s got some ability; he showed that in the two seasons prior to last year. A lot of his problems last year can be attributed to the system the team was running. They’re going back to an offense this season that should better fit his talents. He’s got to stay healthy, of course, but there’s some value there. He’s in a contract year, for whatever that’s worth. No way do you select him after Pead, who may or may not be the main back in St. Louis. You list the four receivers. I don’t particularly like Stevie Johnson. He’s got limited physical skills, and they’ve got more other receivers than they’ve had in the past – plus I don’t think the team passing numbers will be as good. Britt has had a series of knee problems and off-field problems, and it’s a lesser team. I’d let him go. The choice there, I think is Decker or Hilton. Decker should catch fewer passes this season (the Broncos have added Wes Welker), but I think he’ll be their main red-zone receiver. He was a lot better than Demaryius Thomas in that area last year. Hilton was awfully could during the second half of last year. He’s a guy who interests me. But the Colts will make better use of their tight ends and running backs (in the passing game) this year, which works against him.