Fantasy Index

Factoid

July 04, 2013

The risk of pursuing an elite quarterback

What goes up tends to come down

Just because you draft a quarterback in the first or second round, that doesn't mean he'll be a superstar. Of the top 30 quarterbacks of the last 10 years, only six have come back and put up even better numbers the next year.

What goes up must come down. That's the reality of fantasy football, and it's true at every position.

When you go after a player coming off a career-type year, it's tough for him to match that kind of production.

Consider, for example, quarterbacks. I've listed the top 30 from the last 10 years below, using points per game. These are all guys who started over half the season and put up great numbers. (I went with points per game rather than cumulative stats to minimize the factor of guys missing games).

Of these 30, only six were even better the next year (I've got them in bold in the chart). So 80 percent of these quarterbacks declined, usually by about 10 percent.

Here, because of space limitations, I've listed only the fantasy points, using the scoring system of 6 for TDs, 4 for TD passes, 1 for every 20 passing yards and 1 for every 10 running yards. To see the yards and TDs for each guy, you can go to the Facebook page.

Setting aside 2010 Peyton Manning, who didn't even play the next year, the other 29, on average, averaged 27 fewer yards per game, and they averaged almost a half touchdown less per game (.40 TDs lower, to be exact).

TOP 30 QUARTERBACKS (2002-)
YearsBefAft
02-03Daunte Culpepper24.224.4
02-03Matt Hasselbeck23.320.0
02-03Donovan McNabb26.817.4
02-03Rich Gannon23.512.8
03-04Daunte Culpepper24.428.2
04-05Donovan McNabb23.922.5
04-05Peyton Manning26.719.0
04-05Daunte Culpepper28.217.8
06-07Peyton Manning23.321.6
06-07Donovan McNabb24.419.0
07-08Tony Romo23.721.6
07-08Tom Brady28.93.8
08-09Aaron Rodgers22.725.6
08-09Drew Brees24.324.7
08-09Jay Cutler22.619.9
09-10Aaron Rodgers25.624.5
09-10Ben Roethlisberger22.721.5
09-10Drew Brees24.722.7
10-11Drew Brees22.729.8
10-11Aaron Rodgers24.530.4
10-11Philip Rivers22.721.9
10-11Michael Vick30.523.2
10-11Peyton Manning23.1---
11-12Drew Brees29.827.3
11-12Tom Brady27.925.3
11-12Michael Vick23.220.5
11-12Cam Newton27.824.5
11-12Matthew Stafford26.722.9
11-12Eli Manning23.119.0
11-12Aaron Rodgers30.425.7

--Ian Allan

3 Reader Comments:

Moishe Steigmann

Glendale, WI
2013-07-05T01:52:41Z
While correct, I think that this post might be (unintentionally) misleading. The goal, I believe, of securing one of those elite QBs is NOT the unlikely promise of increased production but rather the security of elite production. Many of the guys did put up poorer numbers, but many of those poorer numbers were still elite -- and make this list. That's the security, promise and value of drafting the elite QB early, and that overwhelms (for those who choose this route) the unlikelihood of increased production.

IAN ALLAN

BOTHELL, WA
2013-07-05T21:24:51Z
Agreed, guys. Anytime you select a player at any position coming off a great year, the expectation should be for declined stats.
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