Just because you draft a quarterback in the first or second round, that doesn't mean he'll be a superstar. Of the top 30 quarterbacks of the last 10 years, only six have come back and put up even better numbers the next year.
What goes up must come down. That's the reality of fantasy football, and it's true at every position.
When you go after a player coming off a career-type year, it's tough for him to match that kind of production.
Consider, for example, quarterbacks. I've listed the top 30 from the last 10 years below, using points per game. These are all guys who started over half the season and put up great numbers. (I went with points per game rather than cumulative stats to minimize the factor of guys missing games).
Of these 30, only six were even better the next year (I've got them in bold in the chart). So 80 percent of these quarterbacks declined, usually by about 10 percent.
Here, because of space limitations, I've listed only the fantasy points, using the scoring system of 6 for TDs, 4 for TD passes, 1 for every 20 passing yards and 1 for every 10 running yards. To see the yards and TDs for each guy, you can go to the Facebook page.
Setting aside 2010 Peyton Manning, who didn't even play the next year, the other 29, on average, averaged 27 fewer yards per game, and they averaged almost a half touchdown less per game (.40 TDs lower, to be exact).
TOP 30 QUARTERBACKS (2002-) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Years | Bef | Aft | |
02-03 | Daunte Culpepper | 24.2 | 24.4 |
02-03 | Matt Hasselbeck | 23.3 | 20.0 |
02-03 | Donovan McNabb | 26.8 | 17.4 |
02-03 | Rich Gannon | 23.5 | 12.8 |
03-04 | Daunte Culpepper | 24.4 | 28.2 |
04-05 | Donovan McNabb | 23.9 | 22.5 |
04-05 | Peyton Manning | 26.7 | 19.0 |
04-05 | Daunte Culpepper | 28.2 | 17.8 |
06-07 | Peyton Manning | 23.3 | 21.6 |
06-07 | Donovan McNabb | 24.4 | 19.0 |
07-08 | Tony Romo | 23.7 | 21.6 |
07-08 | Tom Brady | 28.9 | 3.8 |
08-09 | Aaron Rodgers | 22.7 | 25.6 |
08-09 | Drew Brees | 24.3 | 24.7 |
08-09 | Jay Cutler | 22.6 | 19.9 |
09-10 | Aaron Rodgers | 25.6 | 24.5 |
09-10 | Ben Roethlisberger | 22.7 | 21.5 |
09-10 | Drew Brees | 24.7 | 22.7 |
10-11 | Drew Brees | 22.7 | 29.8 |
10-11 | Aaron Rodgers | 24.5 | 30.4 |
10-11 | Philip Rivers | 22.7 | 21.9 |
10-11 | Michael Vick | 30.5 | 23.2 |
10-11 | Peyton Manning | 23.1 | --- |
11-12 | Drew Brees | 29.8 | 27.3 |
11-12 | Tom Brady | 27.9 | 25.3 |
11-12 | Michael Vick | 23.2 | 20.5 |
11-12 | Cam Newton | 27.8 | 24.5 |
11-12 | Matthew Stafford | 26.7 | 22.9 |
11-12 | Eli Manning | 23.1 | 19.0 |
11-12 | Aaron Rodgers | 30.4 | 25.7 |
--Ian Allan