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Factoid

Success rate low with rookie receivers

'Second Tier' receivers tend to take time to make an impact

In 2011, A.J. Green and Julio Jones had viable rookie seasons, but those guys are exceptions. When you look at less-coveted receivers -- guys selected outside the top 20 -- it's extremely rare to see somebody make an impact in their first season.

Tavon Austin has some promise. He's the No. 8 pick of the draft and a guy the Rams hope/think will be their leading pass-catcher from the git-go. He might catch 70-80 passes in his first year.

But what about the next tier of receivers? What about the likes DeAndre Hopkins, Cordarrelle Patterson, Justin Hunter and Robert Woods. The Titans and Vikings would very much like for their rookies to start and make a nice impact immediately. And Woods could start for the Bills (they ain't got much else).

But those guys were all selected in the low first round or early in the second. And historically, it's really rare to see one of those guys make much of an impact. In this century (since 2000), 58 wide receivers have been selected between 20th and 50th. None of those guys reached 1,000 yards.

Only three managed to go over 900 yards. Andre Davis, with 7 TDs, was your top scorer. Only three others (out of 58 receivers) scoredd 6 TDs. It's tough for these guys to come in an thrive right away.

If you're selecting one of these receivers, I hope you're in a dynasty format.

'Second Tier' Rookie receivers since 2000
YearNoYdsTDPts
2007Dwayne Bowe709955129.5
2008Eddie Royal919805128.0
2008DeSean Jackson629124115.2
2009Percy Harvin 607906115.0
2009Hakeem Nicks 477906115.0
2006Santonio Holmes498243100.4
2011Titus Young48607696.7
2010Dez Bryant45561692.1
2009Kenny Britt 42701388.1
2012Kendall Wright64626486.6
2000Sylvester Morris48678385.8
2008Donnie Avery53674385.4
2002Andre Davis37420784.0
2005Reggie Brown43571481.1
2009Mohamed Massaquoi 34624380.4
2007Anthony Gonzalez37576375.6
2005Matt Jones36432573.2
2005Mark Clayton44471365.1
2007Sidney Rice31396463.6
2002Josh Reed37514263.4
2005Roddy White29446362.6
2001Quincy Morgan30432255.2
2012Alshon Jeffery24367354.7
2002Jabar Gaffney41483154.3
2010Arrelious Benn25395251.5
2008Jordy Nelson33366248.6
2012Stephen Hill21252343.2
2000Dennis Northcutt39422042.2
2010Demaryius Thomas22283240.3
2003Bethel Johnson 16209338.9
2001Chad Johnson28329138.9
2002Reche Caldwell22208338.8
2002Javon Walker23319137.9
2001Reggie Wayne27345034.5
2001Freddie Mitchell21283134.3
2006Chad Jackson13152333.2
2011Jon Baldwin21254131.4
2012Brian Quick11156227.6
2010Dexter McCluster21209126.9
2007Craig Davis20188124.8
2005Mark Bradley18230023.0
2004Rashaun Woods7160122.0
2000R. Jay Soward14154121.4
2008James Hardy987220.7
2000Todd Pinkston10181018.1
2008Devin Thomas15120118.0
2004Michael Jenkins7119011.9
2009Brian Robiskie 7106010.6
2003Taylor Jacobs 33719.7
2007Dwayne Jarrett67307.3
2002Tim Carter23703.7
2006Sinorice Moss52502.5
2000Jerry Porter160.6
2008Jerome Simpson120.2
2012A.J. Jenkins000.0
2007Robert Meachem000.0
2004Devery Henderson000.0
2001Robert Ferguson000.0

--Ian Allan

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