Three tight ends were selected in the second round -- Zach Ertz, Gavin Escobar and Vance McDonald. What are the chances of any of those guys doing much of anything in their first year?
NFL teams are using tight ends more nowadays. More teams are using formations with multiple tight ends, and they're throwing to them more. If you look at tight end production league-wide, it's consistently risen over the last 25 years -- not only totals (teams are passing more) but the percentage of the totals going to the tight end position.
But it's still rare to see a tight end step in and excel right away -- particularly if you're looking at the second-tier type guys (not the Vernon Davis and Kellen Winslow guys, but tight ends selected in the second and third rounds).
Three tight ends were chosen in the second round this year -- Zach Ertz (Eagles), Gavin Escobar (Cowboys) and Vance McDonald (49ers). But if form holds, none of those guys will make much of an impact this year. And there's a decent chance none of them will ever be a big star.
In this century (ie, since 2000), there have been 20 tight ends selected in the second round. Only two of those guys put up fantasy-worthy numbers in their first year -- John Carlson and Rob Gronkowski. Two out of 20; that's 10 percent.
In my mind, only five went on to become significant fantasy players in future years. That group would include Gronk, Kyle Rudolph (he looks like he'll be really good for a long time), Alge Crumpler and Zach Miller. Miller isn't doing much right now in Seattle, but he caught a lot of balls with the Raiders. I'm including Carlson in that group, but he really had only two notable seasons with Seattle.
Others had some success -- L.J. Smith, Anthony Fasano and Martellus Bennett -- but they're not the kind of guys anybody in a dynasty league would be kicking themselves for having not selected.
Every player is different and must be graded on his own merits and situation, of course, but the general gut feeling is that these second-round tight ends probably won't amount to much.
| SECOND-ROUND TIGHT ENDS SINCE 2000 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | No | Yds | TD | Pts | |
| 2001 | Alge Crumpler | 25 | 330 | 3 | 51.0 |
| 2002 | Doug Jolley | 32 | 409 | 2 | 52.9 |
| 2003 | L.J. Smith | 27 | 321 | 1 | 38.1 |
| 2003 | Teyo Johnson | 14 | 128 | 1 | 18.8 |
| 2003 | Bennie Joppru | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 |
| 2004 | Ben Troupe | 33 | 329 | 1 | 38.9 |
| 2004 | Kris Wilson | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 |
| 2006 | Tony Scheffler | 18 | 286 | 4 | 52.6 |
| 2006 | Joe Klopfenstein | 20 | 226 | 1 | 28.6 |
| 2006 | Anthony Fasano | 14 | 126 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 2007 | Zach Miller | 44 | 444 | 3 | 62.4 |
| 2008 | John Carlson | 55 | 627 | 5 | 92.7 |
| 2008 | Martellus Bennett | 20 | 283 | 4 | 52.3 |
| 2008 | Fred Davis | 3 | 27 | 0 | 2.7 |
| 2009 | Richard Quinn | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 |
| 2010 | Rob Gronkowski | 42 | 546 | 10 | 114.6 |
| 2011 | Kyle Rudolph | 26 | 249 | 3 | 42.9 |
| 2011 | Lance Kendricks | 28 | 352 | 0 | 35.2 |
| 2012 | Coby Fleener | 26 | 281 | 2 | 40.1 |
| 2013 | Zach Ertz | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2013 | Gavin Escobar | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2013 | Vance McDonald | ? | ? | ? | ? |
--Ian Allan