Ian Allan breaks out the goal-line rushing stats for the last two years and offers some of his observations.
David Wilson is the New York running back everyone's talking about, but I think Andre Brown will outscore him. Brown is a pretty fair running back himself, and I think he'll be New York's back of choice in goal-line situations.
New York used Brown some in that capacity last year, and he was outstanding. They gave him the ball 11 times when they were on the 1 or 2 yard line, and he scored on 9 of those carries. Part of that is scheme and surrounding personnel. Notice that two of the other four running backs over 62 percent since 2011 are also Giants -- Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. But I think Brown will be the back there, not Wilson.
On this chart, I'm not listing everyone. Just players with at least 7 attempts.
Another name that jumps out at me is Beanie Wells. He's gone 9 of 14 (that's in both 2011-12), and he's done it on a lesser team. He'll sign somewhere, and he's an intriguing guy. I'll be shocked if the Cardinals get that kind of success from Rashard Mendenhall (note that he's gone only 4 of 13 on those plays the last two years).
At the other end of the scale, notice that Michael Turner has gotten more carries than anybody at the goal line in the last two years (31), but he scored on only 10 of them. I think he's done, but that he's also been hurt by poor blocking. Interesting that he's being replaced by another older back who's been ineffective. Steven Jackson went only 2 of 7 at the goal line the last two years for St. Louis.
Trent Richardson has a growing reputation as a great tackle-buster, but he went only 4 of 9 last year in Cleveland. Another back who's struggled: Maurice Jones-Drew, who's gone only 3 of 10 with the Jaguars.
Notice that Stevan Ridley, while he scored lots of touchdowns last year, has gone only 7 of 17 as a goal-line runner since the Patriots drafted him. With that in mind, I don't think he's a lock to be New England's main goal-line runner for the entire season.
The rest ...
| GOAL-LINE RUSHING, 2011-2012 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| TD | Att | Pct | |
| Andre Brown | 9 | 11 | 81.8% |
| Alfred Morris | 5 | 7 | 71.4% |
| Tom Brady | 6 | 9 | 66.7% |
| Cam Newton | 11 | 17 | 64.7% |
| Beanie Wells | 9 | 14 | 64.3% |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 7 | 11 | 63.6% |
| Brandon Jacobs | 5 | 8 | 62.5% |
| Arian Foster | 13 | 21 | 61.9% |
| LeSean McCoy | 11 | 18 | 61.1% |
| Michael Bush | 10 | 17 | 58.8% |
| Mike Tolbert | 12 | 21 | 57.1% |
| Fred Jackson | 5 | 9 | 55.6% |
| Willis McGahee | 6 | 11 | 54.5% |
| Shonn Greene | 8 | 16 | 50.0% |
| Adrian Peterson | 8 | 17 | 47.1% |
| Frank Gore | 9 | 20 | 45.0% |
| Ray Rice | 8 | 18 | 44.4% |
| Jonathan Stewart | 4 | 9 | 44.4% |
| Doug Martin | 4 | 9 | 44.4% |
| Trent Richardson | 4 | 9 | 44.4% |
| Peyton Hillis | 3 | 7 | 42.9% |
| Stevan Ridley | 7 | 17 | 41.2% |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 10 | 25 | 40.0% |
| Michael Turner | 10 | 31 | 32.3% |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 4 | 13 | 30.8% |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 3 | 10 | 30.0% |
| Steven Jackson | 2 | 7 | 28.6% |
| Ben Tate | 2 | 8 | 25.0% |
| Daniel Thomas | 2 | 8 | 25.0% |
| Cedric Benson | 2 | 9 | 22.2% |
--Ian Allan