It's not easy to draft and develop wide receivers. Take away the can't-miss stars (guys like Larry Fitzgerald, A.J. Green and Julio Jones) and NFL teams have done poorly at selecting players at this position.
It looks like the Tennessee Titans have missed on Justin Hunter, their early second-round pick (a guy they traded up to get). Hardly a day goes by without some new story coming out of camp about how he's been a disappointment or simply isn't working hard enough.
For those in dynasty leagues, do you stay away from a guy like Hunter (who is talented)? Or do you hope he grows out of it?
Well, there have been a lot of Hunter-type guys. Freddie Michael, Rashaun Woods, Jonathan Baldwin, A.J. Jenkins, Craig Davis, James Hardy. It seems like it's not too often that the rookie bust comes back and becomes a second- or third-year star.
Consider this list. It's the 35 receivers in this century who've been selected with one of the last 10 picks of the first round, or one of the first 10 picks of the second. For this group, there are a lot more misfires than superstars.
Of these 35 guys, only 3 went over 800 yards in their first season. Only 7 others even went over 500 yards.
Now that's just Year One, but look at the sophomore seasons. Not that much better. Only 10 of 32 went over 600 receiving yards, and only three went over the 1,000-yard mark (Ochocinco, Bowe and Nicks).
In my opinion, of the 35 receivers, only 9 truly panned out. (I've got those guys in bold). There's some opinion in there. Robert Meachem, for example, had some success as an outside receiver in New Orleans and got a big contract; maybe he should be on the 'hit' list. Eddie Royal, Jabar Gaffney and Michael Jenkins also might make it on the maybe list.
But in a rough sense, it looks like when you take a receiver late in the first round or early in the second, there's only a one in three chance that you'll feel good with the selection three-four years down the road.
So when a rookie receiver struggles in the beginning (Hunter, A.J. Jenkins, Brian Quick), my leaning from a fantasy perspective is to just cut bait and move on.
| Year | Receiver | No | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Todd Pinkston | 10 | 181 | 0 |
| 2000 | Dennis Northcutt | 39 | 422 | 0 |
| 2000 | R. Jay Soward | 14 | 154 | 1 |
| 2001 | Chad Johnson | 28 | 329 | 1 |
| 2001 | Quincy Morgan | 30 | 432 | 2 |
| 2001 | Reggie Wayne | 27 | 345 | 0 |
| 2001 | Robert Ferguson | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2001 | Freddie Mitchell | 21 | 283 | 1 |
| 2002 | Josh Reed | 37 | 514 | 2 |
| 2002 | Jabar Gaffney | 41 | 483 | 1 |
| 2004 | Michael Jenkins | 7 | 119 | 0 |
| 2004 | Rashaun Woods | 7 | 160 | 1 |
| 2005 | Reggie Brown | 43 | 571 | 4 |
| 2005 | Roddy White | 29 | 446 | 3 |
| 2005 | Mark Bradley | 18 | 230 | 0 |
| 2006 | Santonio Holmes | 49 | 824 | 3 |
| 2006 | Chad Jackson | 13 | 152 | 3 |
| 2007 | Dwayne Bowe | 70 | 995 | 5 |
| 2007 | Anthony Gonzalez | 37 | 576 | 3 |
| 2007 | Robert Meachem | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2007 | Craig Davis | 20 | 188 | 1 |
| 2008 | Donnie Avery | 53 | 674 | 3 |
| 2008 | Eddie Royal | 91 | 980 | 5 |
| 2008 | Devin Thomas | 15 | 120 | 1 |
| 2008 | Jordy Nelson | 33 | 366 | 2 |
| 2008 | James Hardy | 9 | 87 | 2 |
| 2009 | Hakeem Nicks | 47 | 790 | 6 |
| 2009 | Kenny Britt | 42 | 701 | 3 |
| 2009 | Brian Robiskie | 7 | 106 | 0 |
| 2010 | Dez Bryant | 45 | 561 | 6 |
| 2010 | Arrelious Benn | 25 | 395 | 2 |
| 2010 | Dexter McCluster | 21 | 209 | 1 |
| 2011 | Jon Baldwin | 21 | 254 | 1 |
| 2012 | Brian Quick | 11 | 156 | 2 |
| 2012 | A.J. Jenkins | 0 | 0 | 0 |
--Ian Allan