Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: A walk-through on how to value 300-yard passing games. What to make of the injury to LeVeon Please-Don't-Call-Me-Tatum Bell. Is Daryl Richardson the real deal? And a walk down Marino Memory Lane.
Question 1
Our league hands out a 5 point bonus for 300 yards passing. How would you re-rank the QBs? Stafford becomes a top 5 QB right?
Marco Tavares (BILLERICA, MA)
We’ve got that feature in the custom scoring, so you can do that and get the exact rankings. For Stafford, I expect he’ll still be outside the top 5. We’re projecting him to average 304 passing yards per game (we think they’ll rely heavily on the pass again). After studying teams from the last 10 years, it’s my expectation that when a team averages 300-309 passing yards per game, it has a 55 percent chance of reaching 300 yards in each game. We’ve got Stafford projected for 15 games. (15 games) x (55%) x (5 points) = 41 additional points. There are a bunch of quarterbacks projecting to throw 280-289 yards per game. Based on my research, I think they have a 36 percent chance to reach 300 each week. (15) x (36%) x (5) = 27 points. So in a rough sense, this 300-point rule gives Stafford 1 point per week versus a bunch of those other quarterbacks he’s trying to catch. But you’ll have to plug it into the custom scoring to get the exact rankings. Go to “Your Stuff” and pull down to “Scoring Systems”.
Question 2
Hello Ian, big fan of the Index. I've been using it since Marino was on the cover. Do you think Daryl Richardson has potential to put up Eddie George or Chris Johnson type numbers based on Jeff Fisher's coaching philosopy? I see Richardson's at 20. Do you feel that's low if he performs at 75% of what George and Johnson have in the past. Personally, I have him higher.
Gary Goodrich (CLINTON, PA)
If you’ve got a Marino cover, you’ve been around for a while. He was on the first edition of the magazine (in 1987). And he was on a regional cover in 1993 – the loogie edition (he was under center, and if you look closely, you can see a big glob of spit on his facemask). As for Daryl Richardson, I kind of like him. He’s small, but he’s really fast – could be a poor man’s Jamaal Charles or Chris Johnson. I could see him doing some nice damage out of spread sets there. He’s significantly better than the other backs they have there.
Question 3
Long time subscriber, here. Since it appears that LeVeon Bell will miss 6-8 weeks, what do you expect to see from the Pittsburgh backfield? Is Redman the clear starter? Do you see any value in Stephen-Howlings? Thanks!
Daniel Burks (BALTIMORE, MD)
I believe LaRod Stephens-Howling for that team will be used the same way the Patriots used Danny Woodhead last year. More than a third-down back – a change-of-pace guy. Maybe he catches 30-40 passes and runs for 20-30 yards per game. Stephens-Howling (I think) will put up 700-900 total yards and maybe 4-6 TDs. He’s part of it. But he’s not a starter. That will be either Isaac Redman or Jonathan Dwyer. I like the look of Dwyer. He’s lost some weight and is running hard. I think Dwyer will beat out Redman and be the opening day starter there. Bell’s injury supposedly isn’t that severe; it won’t need surgery. But I’ll be surprised if he returns before their Week 5 bye.
Question 4
My draft is on the 24th of August. I see you are really high on Danny Amendola -- I agree with your analysis. If he stays healthy he'll be a blue chipper. The question is how fast do I draft him? I draft 9th in a 12 team PPR league. Based on the ADP sites I've been using, Danny Amendola seems to be going early in the 4th round -- possibly too early for me to get him with pick 4.04. If things go according to plan, I hope to draft Ray Rice or Trent Richardson at 1.09, and Dez Bryant or Brandon Marshall at 2.04. The key decisions for me are what to do with picks 3.09 and 4.04. If Amendola produces like you think, should I take him at 3.09 and then shoot for Eddie Lacy at 4.04?
Andrew Napoli (SPRINGFIELD, VA)
I like the idea of targeting Amendola and Lacy in the third and fourth rounds. With it being a PPR league, I’d probably go Amendola first and hope Lacy is there at 4.04. But if you’re drafting against 11 guys who are thinking like I am, both Amendola and Lacy will be gone long before pick 3.09 rolls around. I don't care much what the "ADP values" say about those guys, because they both had great games this last week, so I imagine there will be a few people in every league that are hot on their trail.
Question 5
I see a new sheet was just distributed. I have a draft on Sunday. Outside of a major injury do you see anything that would really change much from this last sheet to the one that comes out on Monday? I was hoping my draft was Tuesday or something, but it's Sunday.
Bill Petilli (LARCHMONT, NY)
I expect there will be many changes. How many are minor, medium and crucial, we’ll see. Teams are playing their third preseason games this weekend, and that tends to be the most important one – the dress rehearsal. Based on what happens, I’ll adjust my board. If Julius Thomas drops both balls that are thrown his way, he’ll fall. I’ve been down on Tavon Austin after his first two games; I’m not a believer. If he has a great game – catches 4 balls and a couple of touchdowns or returns a punt for a touchdown or whatever – he’ll move up. We could get clarity on running back situations with the Broncos, Steelers, Jets and other teams. We’ll see.
Question 6
Does the addition of Baldwin lessen or magnify the importance of Austin Collie in SF?
MONTE MCDONALD (LAS VEGAS, NV)
I don’t see how his situation changes. The 49ers need a wide receiver who can play – somebody who can start opposite Anquan Boldin. Collie looks like the most capable of their candidates. Last week, he was competing against a former first-round pick who’s done absolutely nothing as a pro (A.J. Jenkins). This week, he’s still competing against a former first-round pick who’s done absolutely nothing as a pro (Jon Baldwin).
Question 7
What is your position on Gronk? With him possibly being on the PUP list and all of his recent surgeries. I am in a dynasty league Yard/Td that keeps 12 players every year. I have been offered the #1 pick in this years draft and am thinking of trading him and selecting Eddie Lacy.
DAMON DUHON (BATON ROUGE, LA)
Lacy has been the most impressive running back I’ve seen in the preseason. That’s rookies and veterans. He’s the real deal, and a lot of teams will be regretting letting him slide to the end of the second round. With Gronk’s injury issues (and with him being a tight end, which is a less-coveted position), I would take Lacy in a keeper league.
Question 8
Thanks for the passion you convey in all you write. Through the custom scoring system option, an overall draft list for a 14 team, PPR, snake draft (18 player roster) (standard scoring with QB TDs at 4 pts) with a starting roster of QB, RB, WR, WR, TE, K, D/ST & 2 Flex positions (RB-TE-WR) has the top 5 players at Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall, Ray Rice, & Jamaal Charles. I'm a disciple of your ideology of accumulating WR's. This format, I can start 4 of them in any given week! So many of the radio shows, magazines (non-FFI, of course) & talk shows say, "your 1st 5 picks should be 2 stud RB's, 2 wideouts & a QB. I disagree. I'm sitting at #2 draft position (no trading of draft position or picks are allowed) & I'd really like your advice at #2. Peterson will certainly be the 1st player chosen. I am seriously considering Megatron at 2 overall, & not a RB. I'm even thinking, hell, I'm going WR at picks 27 & 30, also (Amendola & Cobb??). I can wait on a QB & try my hand at the likes of maybe, Eddie Lacy, Shane Vereen, and/or Montee Ball at selections, #55 & #58. And should the #1 drafter throw me a curve & take Megatron, I'm going Dez Bryant at 2 overall. Just wanted to make sure I have my mind right, here; draft is 2 weeks away.
Donald McCown (CHICAGO, IL)
Thank you for the nice words. I’m all for taking wide receivers. Would love to take Amendola and Cobb around 27th and 30th. But you need to take a running back at some point and get that position out of the way. With your first pick, I think you should be looking at Jamaal Charles or Ray Rice. Those guys project to be a little more valuable than Megatron and Dez Bryant. Then, with you next four picks, you don’t have to worry about position. You just take the best production available. If that includes another running back, fine. If it means four wide receivers, that’s fine too.
Question 9
Currently in the Fantasy Index Cheat Sheet Auction Values using Point Per Reception (for the 8/19 update), it has 5 QBs, 25 RBs, 17 WRs and 3 TEs going in the top 50 per the auction values. I am assuming this is a league that starts 3 WRs. If it is, I am surprised that it would project to take some many RBs in the top 50 when you can only start 2, but need to start 3 WRs. Also, I know you are a big fan of taking WRs early and often in PPR leagues, but it appears that the rankings do not reflect that. Is there something I am missing (which is usually the case)? Thanks again for all your great work!
Rick Anderson (SUN PRAIRIE, WI)
There’s a balancing act on this rankings. There’s the way I’d rank them if I were bidding against 11 versions of myself, and then there’s the reality that a lot of owners will be running back crazy. They’ll be hell-bent on taking running backs in the first and second rounds. That tends to affect the board I publish. I am very nervous, for example, about ranking quarterbacks too high. Suppose my studies indicate to me that there should be six quarterbacks in the top 20. I would be nervous about telling you to select a quarterback with 7th overall pick, when in most leagues that guy might not even be chosen in the second round – or a guy very similar to him might be selected in the third or fourth. So there’s a little tweaking that occurs there. Ultimately, the order in those early rounds is determined by where you set the baselines at each position. And if you want to customize the rankings to fit your own personal preferences (and your league’s tendencies) you can do so in the custom rankings area (go to “Your Stuff” at the website and pull down to “Scoring Systems”).
Question 10
Hey Ian, my first Index was '02 and I have never spent money on another fantasy resource since. No one but you offers the mathematical analysis necessary to be consistent and to properly determine VALUE - not just rankings. I can't thank you enough. That said, every year there is typically a position that I feel uncomfortable with - that I have a lack of confidence in players living up to their projections. This year, I think for the first time, it is the wide receiver group that has me nervous. For example, I'm not sure there is enough antacid in my home to make it through a season with Roddy White as my #1 or Torrey Smith as my #2. Do you get an ulcer projecting the WR group this year, or which position has been the toughest for you?
L DALE GANDER (SUN PRAIRIE, WI)
Thanks for the kind words. As for wide receivers, look over the top 20 and figure out which ones you want to pick. For whatever reason, I’m more interested in Dez Bryant than Calvin Johnson. (If forced to pick between the two, I’d take Megatron, but I’d rather trade down and get Bryant.) I like Amendola and Cobb; I expect they’ll be on a lot of my teams. A notch down, I have interest in Torrey Smith and Antonio Brown. Golden Tate (I think) will be cheaper than those guys; he should be on some of my rosters.
Question 11
Liked the piece in the magazine (Mailbag) about how an "all-serpentine" draft is a weak choice. Our 12-team league is a bit unconventional in that we draw random order for all of the "odd" rounds. The "even rounds" are then a serpentine of the previous round. So, for example, if you have the overall #1 pick, your second round pick would be #12 as usual but then we would do a random order again for round 3 and so on. We draw rounds prior to draft day so that it doesn't drag on the day of the draft. It can make you or break you sometimes but we've used this format for 15 years now and the guys like it. I'm just curious how this plays out as far as "fairness". It seems to me that overall it would really level out the playing field but can be feast or famine in the crucial rounds. Can I get your take on this?
JIMY BYRD (ALBUQUERQUE, NM)
It sounds like fun, and it’s “fair” in that every team is equally likely to enjoy whatever advantages there are from selecting from the various positions. So I suggest you just leave it be. It’s worked for 15 years, after all. But if your goal is to make the draft order as even as possible, then you can start looking at who’s ahead and who’s behind after those initial 24 picks. In general (not so much this year), the first pick is the one everyone will want. That slot will tend to be ahead (projected points) after the first two rounds. One option would be to switch to a random draw for only every four rounds. The second block of 24 picks could be a mirror image of the first. (If you picked 1.01 and 2.12, then you’d be at the other end for the next two – 3.12 and 4.01). But if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
Question 12
Hey Ian, love the magazine and website. I have a question regarding bidding strategies in auctions. This will be the first auction I've done in over a decade, and I have no idea on how the other owners tend to bid. I will obviously go in with my own player valuations and try to build a team worth as much more than the $200 cap as possible. My question is: What is your opinion regarding how much to bump bids when I want to bid on a player? On shows like "Storage Wars" bidders will often win bids by bumping the bid significantly right away, scaring other bidders off. The risk is obviously that I might pay more than I otherwise might have had I only bumped the bid a small amount. Example: CJ Spiller is nominated for $45. I have a value on him of $60. If I bump the bid right away to $55 I may well just get him for that amount. If I bump it to $47 other owners may stay in and he gets bumped higher and higher in $1 and $2 increments. Not knowing how the other owners bid, I'm stumped. Thoughts?
Michael Kessler (MADISON, WI)
I don’t like the idea of bump bids, as you call them. I can remember a couple of times in recent years, there have been running backs that I thought were worth about $3.00. A guy opened the bidding at $10. And? Crickets. The guy goes for $10, leaving everyone to wonder if the player would have sold for $1, $2 or $3. As the other owners are working through the undercard bids, I like to examine my price list and decide what I’m actually willing to bid. Keep in mind that if you immediately through out a price, that’s a tell to all the other guys that you’re definitely willing to go higher. If you hem and haw and let the auctioneer do the, “going once, going twice” routine, that’s a sign you’re closer to what will be your final bid. Keep in mind that many players will go for $1.00. So with those guys, you have to be the opening bidder. So if you’re of the school of thought that 18 of the 20 kickers should go for $1.00, it makes sense that in the early going, you should toss out some $1.00 opening bids on your Nos. 3-5 kickers – either you’re getting the guy for $1.00, or somebody else must overpay for him. Same with defenses. My own signature bidding move, which I tend to use 3-5 times per auction, is to outbid myself. If I think a player is “worth” $7, then I’d probably want to get him for $5. At $6, I’m not so interested. If I’m the high bidder at $4, and I sense by the attitude that somebody in the room is going to top that bid, then I’ll go to $5 to find that sweet spot where I want to buy him.
Question 13
I'm currently picking 3rd in an 8-team league with a snake draft. The way I look at it is that the top 10 RBs are pretty even. I have an opportunity to drop down to the 7th slot (picks 7 & 10). That would guarantee me 2 of these RBs which I wouldn't likely get at picks 3 & 14. What should I do?
JEFF LITTLE (MISSISSAUGA, ON)
Looks good to me. According to my values, the 7-10 combo should be slightly more valuable than the 3-14 pairing.
Question 14
One of my leagues is going to IDP- never done it before- not sure I want to- but it is now in our league. I have looked over your IDP cheat sheet and have gotten an idea of who to take. My problem is- WHEN to take these players. Does someone like JJ Watt go before the likes of a 3rd WR? When would you start taking these better IDP players? And once I start taking them - do I keep taking my starting IDP players before I finish my offensive players? Any help with this would be appreciated?
MONTE MCDONALD (LAS VEGAS, NV)
I’ve never down an IDP league. But as with other positions, it would come down to the usual issues. How productive will this player be? How confident am I that he’ll actually put up those kind of numbers? How much am I giving up if I wait another two-three rounds at this position? And if I don’t draft anyone good at this position, how likely will it be that I can find an acceptable option on the waiver wire during the season?
Question 15
who should i keep? Maurice Jones Drew or Frank Gore
KAY HALLMARK (ONTARIO, CA)
I’ve got Jones-Drew a little higher on my board.