Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Should we really be thinking about selecting a quarterback in the first or second round? Seattle's dynamic backup tailback. How long does one wait before selecting a player like T.Y. Hilton or Eddie Lacy? And wondering whether to hitch up the fantasy wagon behind Michael Vick.
Question 1
The top QBs are slotted very high in the TD-only overall rankings. Can you explain the logic there, and if I'm picking early in a big (14 team) league are you saying I should take a QB before a RB?
JEFF CASTER (WEST MIFFLIN, PA)
The rankings on these various cheat sheets are mathematical. I’m not simply sitting down with a list in front of me, saying, “Hmm. It’s the top 5 in a TD-only league; who should I take?” I’m projecting the stats for each player, and trying to get those as accurate as possible – TD passes, TD runs, TD receptions, TD returns, passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards. I’m looking at team totals and what guys have done in starting roles. If a guy’s returned a kick for a touchdown three years in a row and he’s returning punts and kickoffs again, I’ll probably put him down for about a kick return again. One kick return touchdown divided by 16 games equals .06 TD returns for that guy each week. See where I’m coming from? Then, when it’s time to decide who’s going in the top 20 overall, the values are determined by their worth relative to what you can later in a draft. Think of the guys you might select in the 10th round in a typical league. Many of those players will be released in October when you have a chance to pick somebody up off waivers – like Colin Kaepernick in October later. Maybe both Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce get kicked off Baltimore’s roster, then we’re all scrambling to sign Delone Carter. You get the idea. We’re into players on the margin – what you might select in the 9th, 10th, 11th round (where you want to set it). We’re talking maybe the 15th quarterback or the 38th running back. Stuff like that. Then you look at the production of the first round guys relative to these lesser-type guys to get a cross-positional value. For you being in a 14-team league, I would set the baseline at about 19 quarterbacks. The No. 19 quarterback on my board, Jay Cutler, projects to score 91 points in TD only, so that’s your baseline. The top quarterbacks – Brees, Brady, Rodgers and good Manning – project to finish at almost 140. So almost 50 points, that’s their value. You get about 12 TD passes of value when you select one of those guys, rather than just punting the position by waiting and selecting Cutler. At running back, I will set the baseline at about 42 guys (suppose each team wants three). Down there, I think you’re looking at guys like Mendenhall, McFadden, DeAngelo Williams, Vick, Ahmad Bradshaw. That’s what you get if you wait until really late to select running backs. I will call that baseline 26 points. (So roughly, you’re saying you can find guys who’ll score 4-5 TDs even if you wait until late and play the game of working the waiver wire). How much better are the elite backs? Well, you’ve got Peterson at 73 points. That’s a big chunk. But the next group of eight guys is all at 58-63 points. Guys who’ll score about 10 TDs, in other words. That includes the possibility of injuries and whatnot. So at running back, you’re looking at a difference of about 6 TDs. What would you rather have in the first round? A quarterback who gives you an additional 12 TD passes (probably at 4 points each) or a running back who’ll give you an extra 6 TD runs (at 6 points each). That, in a rough sense, is why you see the quarterbacks ranked a little higher than you might expect. Now keep in mind that’s just one idea. You’re on the frontlines, and you have the advantage of knowing where the quarterbacks will be selected in your league. If you know that you can get a top-8 quarterback in the fourth round of your draft, that would change the recommendation. But for me, working with hundreds of players being selected in thousands of leagues, it’s hard for me to work those contingencies into my draft boards. I tend to work in a few backdoor tricks with the math to make quarterbacks less valuable (feeling that they’re less coveted in most leagues), but ultimately it’s up to you to make the best adjustments, having a better feel for what your opponents are doing.
Question 2
A cautionary tale for Index subscribers. I got cute and traded down from 3.01 to 3.10 thinking I could still get Lacy and was wrong. With a run on backs I'm now stuck with Ingram as an RB2. Was offered Lynch and D Richardson for AP and Mike Vick (there is no chance of acquiring C.Michael). Jump on this or relax and wait it out?
Russell Ditnes (JAMISON, PA)
I find Vick to be an intriguing sleeper-type quarterback. He looks potentially very good in that offense. Would be tough to part with him. It would be nice to get your hands on Daryl Richardson as an upgrade over Ingram, but having to give up Vick and Peterson looks like too steep of a price.
Question 3
In our dynasty league (keep everyone you want), we have our first supplemental draft at the same time as our regular annual pick-from-scratch league. I am drafting fourth this year (ten-team league), and need to buttress my RB roster. I have Lynch, Morris, and Gore -- only 3. One of the guys in the league has 7 RBs -- sheesh! I expect to face a choice among Lamar Miller, LeVeon Bell and Ben Tate at the 4-spot. I am intrigued by the possibilities of Tate in free agency next year, and think he may play more this year. I had hoped Miller would break out more than he has by now. I like Bell, but am suspecting he may slide based on the dreaded phrase 'Lisfranc'. Whoever I select, my goal would be to get a minimum of 3-4 premium production years going forward. What would you advise?
ROBERT JOHNSON (PEARLAND, TX)
Call me crazy, but Christine Michael looks like a really nice fit with your club. You have Marshawn Lynch. Michael should be the guy who takes over for Lynch when he either breaks down or gets kicked to the curb in 2014, 2015 or 2016. Michael looked really good in the Green Bay game. He had three plays where he really looked special. I am aware that four running backs were selected before him in the draft, but I don’t think any NFL scout right now would LeVeon Bell or Montee Ball before Michael. There’s a talent edge there, and he fits very well with your roster. Do you think you can get him in the second round? They’ve also got Robert Turbin, which limits Michael’s value for 2013. Of the guys you list, I would select Bell.
Question 4
I have been analyzing and testing out the auction values based on the customization section and have noticed that I miss out on the top tier players at all positions and get the 2nd/3rd tier players at a discounted price. Usually means my bench is strong, but my starters don't appear to be as strong as other teams. Have you noticed the same and if so, do you ever overbid from your board on draft day if you feel you are missing out on all the top tier guys.
ERIC FEINGOLD (GARDEN CITY, NY)
That’s logical. The tendency for guys is to try to win in the easiest way. “Adrian Peterson ran for 2,000 yards last year; I’ll outbid everyone for him.” “Well, I missed out on Peterson, but if he went for that much, then I’ll spend a little less and get the next-best guy.” It’s all fine, but if you step back and look at the overall numbers, you’ll be better with a more well-rounded and balanced team with all the guys you’ve scouted better than the other teams. Now if you feel you’re really want to get guys ranked in the top 5 at their positions, you can push more of the dollars to the top end of the auction of moving the baselines up. (Have fewer players being worth more than the minimum bid). Overpaying for star players makes more sense in smaller leagues, where there’s a nice supply of talent always available on the waiver wire.
Question 5
Do you have back issues that can be bought. I'd like to have the '87 Marino cover
Gary Goodrich (CLINTON, PA)
Golly gee. Not sure I want you looking at the insides of 87 magazine. It’s pretty rough. We were just kids – just out of the University of Washington. To me, the most interesting thing about looking at that initial magazine is observing what’s stayed in place. There are position-by-position rankings in the front, team stories in the back. The team sections include team stats from the previous year. And stats in the back. All of that is still in place. But the writing – the mechanics and the reasoning – is pretty crude. I might be willing to pay you to promise not to read it. But it’s part of the 27-year history of the company, and we have issues for almost all of those years available. That’s one where you contact the office directly by phone (206-527-4444) or email customerservice@fantasyindex.com. For your enjoyment, I’m using a cover of one of the magazines from the ‘90s as the artwork for this mailbag.
Question 6
Your custom rankings for my 10-team, no PPR league ranked T.Y. Hilton a hair better than Reggie Wayne. I drafted Hilton in the sixth round as my third WR ahead of Wayne because I'd rather have the young up-and-comer rather than the aging veteran. I was proud of the pick, but my son wasn't impressed, saying Wayne is the much better player. My son says I could have and should have waited a few more rounds to draft Hilton. I see his point, but he was the highest-ranked WR on my board at a position of need. What do you think of the pick? And in a situation like this, should you wait on a player you may be able to get later or go ahead and draft him if there's not anyone else at another position you like better?
Paul Owers (WEST PALM BEACH, FL)
I don’t want to knock Wayne. He’s a good receiver, and he’s played far better than I expected in this preseason. There seems to be some kind of rapport there with Andrew Luck. I will not dismiss the possibility he’ll be the Colts best wide receiver. But I like Hilton better. He looks like a dynamic, emerging playmaker. He keeps catching touchdowns every week. He’s returning punts, so I imagine he’ll get one of those touchdowns somewhere along the line as well. And while I tend to get good values as much as the next guys, there’s something to be said for simply drafting good players. Approaching the middle of a draft, do you really want to miss out on a possible breakout player because you think you might be able to get him a round later? Another reader wrote in this week to explain that he lost Eddie Lacy trying a stunt like that. Hilton is a safe, building-block type of player. I’d just select him.
Question 7
Love the magazine. Faithful reader. Can you explain the relative low ranking -- still -- for C.J. Spiller? You praise him in the notes, he's soaring in other, albeit inferior, rankings and yet he's still about No. 20 overall, and No. 14 among RBs in your latest update. Why no love?
JOHN GRUPP (PITTSBURGH, PA)
I’m not low on Spiller, am I? On the current list he’s 11th, 10th or 15th, depending on what scoring system you’re using. I like that offense, and he’s definitely a talented, explosive guy. I hope he can stay healthy. And I have concerns about that offensive line.
Question 8
Love your internet updates. I use them, exclusively, leading up to my draft. This year we are counting TE as a separate position for the first time in our 12-team PPR league. By the way, this is our 23rd year with the same owners. We also have a keeper and I was fortunate enough to choose Tony Gonzalez last year in the 10th round, so I can have him for a 7th round pick this year. However, I also have the option of keeping Mike Williams of TB with my 11th round pick. Which do you think represents a better value? Thanks.
Jeff Rose (WESTON, FL)
A tip for you, since you haven’t used tight ends before. That position is more like quarterback than wide receiver. There are 32 teams. All of them have starting tight ends and some have multiple tight ends of value. You’re league is starting only 12. So it’s a position where you might be able to adequately fill it in the later rounds or during the waiver wire during the season. It’s not as valuable as running back or wide receiver. So while Gonzalez is certainly a much better player, I think the better move is to keep Mike Williams. That’s tough to say, as dysfunctional as the Bucs have looked at times this preseason. But he’s a wide receiver, and he’s coming four rounds cheaper. If you kept neither guy, Gonzalez would be selected in the 6th or 7th round. Williams would be gone long before the 11th – much better value.
Question 9
Bought every magazine since my first Fantasy draft back in 93. I won my first year so I got hooked on the magazine. Plus I enjoy reading about the teams and players mostly. I got the Aug 22nd updated cheat sheet since my draft was on the 24th this year and noticed the updated cheat sheet does not include the little Pacman looking icon for running back by committee. Is the reason for Fosters drop down so many slots, because he is now going to share time? Or is it strictly based on risk of injury? I would like to suggest the RBBC be added to the updated cheat sheets if possible. With TD-only leagues it helps a lot.
Peter Kilman (COLORADO SPGS, CO)
We’ll try and get those Pacman dots on there going forward. Apologies. If they get missed for any issue, however, notice that it’s just a search-replace for the (C) mark. If a player has a “(C)” after his name, that means he’s a committee guy. As for Foster, I’ll explain a little of the reasoning for moving him down. He’s been banged up, so it’s likely but not certain he’ll be ready for the first game. He says he’ll be ready and the team says he should be ready, but they’ve missed on a number of other deadlines already. With Foster having missed a lot of practice time, I think he could be more apt to break down this year, and I also think they’ll probably spell him more with Ben Tate. As I analyze, re-analyze and over-analyze, it seems to me that it makes more sense to select one of these other backs – you maybe lose a little upside but pick up some security.
Question 10
My first (and last) magazine was in '95, haven't looked at another since. Love waiting for July 1st to get my new one every year! Long-time reader of your mailbag and I'm not sure if I've ever read a question like this, but part of me wonders if its counterproductive to the magazines purpose/vision. Have you ever taken the previous years predictions (like just the overall top 100 preseason) and published a comparison to how the season actually ended? I'd like to see that in the magazine.
JON SCHREMPP (Coon Rapids, MN)
I try to stay away from the back-patting deal. It serves no purpose. Better to spend that time working on some other project that will help people in the current year.
Question 11
Can you email me the links to expert drafts you already participated in? I usually see them on your page somewhere but am unable to locate.
Jon Ozick (LIBERTY, MO)
I did the Mock Auction in the magazine (page 60). Not sure if that one’s online – I hope not. With my $200, I bought Michael Crabtree ($19) and Dennis Pitta ($9), who might not play all year. Vick Ballard ($17) became a lot less valuable when the Colts signed Ahmad Bradshaw. Justin Blackmon ($6) has been suspended for the first month. And Montee Ball ($26) doesn’t look like a starter-caliber back. Will be a long season for that group. That’s a no-moves league. I’ve done an auction and two drafts with the Fanex group. Those can be accessed here.
Question 12
I have Daniel Thomas and am contemplating offering him to the owner of Lamar Miller (I would try to package him with Vernon Davis to upgrade at TE). As the draft is over and teams are pretty much set, am I better off trying to squeeze any current value out of him by offering him to the Miller owner now or gambling that he ends up as the starter? I have good RBs with Rice, Morris, and Richardson, but I am not deep, so having another starter would be great.
Chris Thompson (LOS ANGELES, CA)
I wouldn’t give him away. I wouldn’t, for example, trade him with Vernon Davis for another tight end who simply might be better than Davis. It would have to be for a tight end that you’re sure will be better than Davis. Thomas has value. He’s a better short-yardage runner than Miller, and he’s better in the passing game as a pass protector and receiver. Yes, he threw up a dud in the Tampa Bay game, but I expect Thomas will start some games for Miami this year.
Question 13
Quick question in a 12team PPR that can keep up to three players from the year before as long as they aren't a top 3round pick... I have picks 7 and 13... Should 13 be an elite WR or solid RB? My only keepers are Jared Cook and Alfred Morris.
Anthony Cillis (LAGRANGEVILLE, NY)
I wouldn’t be locked into either. Would just look at players. The way I stack my board, I will guess that a wide receiver will be the choice, but I’m not opposed to a running back.
Question 14
Is there any way you can add a Dynasty/Keeper league cheat sheet with your updates? It would really be helpful even if you didn't know everyone's scoring system. You could base it on a four year projection. If you can't (won't) do a complete sheet- could you maybe make a separate small section (like biggest movers) of players you like best/worst for Dynasty teams?
MONTE MCDONALD (LAS VEGAS, NV)
We’re trying to do more with the dynasty guys in the weekly newsletters. A week ago, I did a re-listing of the rookie running backs, and I did the top 20 dynasty wide receivers (rookies) in the product that went out on Monday.
Question 15
I had asked about how drastic the rankings would be from yesterday's sheet until the one that comes out Monday. Thanks for the reply and yes, I understand about the players you mention. My question was more geared toward the top 24 or 36. Basically what I'm trying to avoid happen is work off yesterday's sheet where a guy like CJ2K is ranked very high (top 6), I go and pick him and then the sheet has him at 12 on Monday.
Bill Petilli (LARCHMONT, NY)
Sorry if you feel there are too many changes. I’m working with a lot of numbers and adjusting them constantly based on what I’m seeing. There’s an injury or a lineup change. An offense looks really comfortable. Or a quarterback looks like he simply can’t play. As I get more comfortable (or nervous) about teams and players, I’m moving them up and down, and it’s all kind of a work in progress. Lots of moving parts, as I’m trying to get everything just right. It’s all part of the over-analysis process.
Question 16
I'm looking through the custom scoring profile and it shows that you go by the assumption there is 1qb, 2rb, 3wr etc.. I'm in a 12 team league with 1qb, 2rb, 2wr, 1te and 1 flex (wr/rb). There is a 6 person bench so I set the total rb and wr at 60 with 36 going for more than the minimum. Is that an accurate number to work off? It definitely spit out different rankings than the regular sheet. Meaning CJ2K is now 4th overall.. does that sound right if you get a 5pt bonus for 100 yards rushing?
Bill Petilli (LARCHMONT, NY)
I’d set those baselines just a little lower. There will be about 30 running backs and 30 wide receivers starting each week, so about 40-42 at each spot is where I’d set the baselines. That will increase values of those positions slightly (relative to the quarterback position).
Question 17
Done very well since the early 90s using your advice and projections. I'm in one odd league where QBs go quickly. Std scoring except 6pt for QB TDs and PPR with 1 point per 20 yards for WRs. Over the last 3 years, round 1 has seen 4QBs off the board, 6 through round 2, 7+ through round 3, 9+ through round 4 and 10+ through round 5 and 12+ by end of round 6. I've won the league one of these three years without joining the QB race. However, knowing that the #12 QB will be gone by the end of round 6. How would you play it? Wait and tag team QBs like Vick and Bradford? Or grab a top guy out of the gate? I pick 2nd. Classic snake draft. Thanks for your help now and for the last 20 years. Your advice means a lot.
James Crawford (ATLANTA, GA)
I don’t have the full scoring system, so I’m working without the benefit of a draft board in front of me. I’ll assume you’ve put it into the custom scoring deal and checked out the rankings. But you mention the idea of Vick-Bradford, and I find that compelling. We can push around the numbers and debate whether quarterbacks are worthy of selection in the first two rounds and whatnot. But the best way to get ahead of the other 11 teams in your league is to come up with some dramatically undervalued guys later. Going the Vick-Bradford might work. Bradford looks like a breakout-type guy at times, and I really like the look of Vick in Philadelphia. If you had that tag-team, there would be a reasonable chance you’d be able to hand in there with the guys who used their premium picks on quarterbacks, while you would presumably clobber them at the field positions by grabbing the great players there. It’s an intriguing idea.
Question 18
I am picking #2 in a 10-team PPR league, where we start 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE (no flex). I will be taking a RB. My question concerns the turn in rounds 2-3. The top players available will most likely be: QB: Brees / Rodgers RB: R.Bush / Sproles WR: Fitzgerald / R.Cobb TE: J.Graham Which two players should I take? Would your answer change if we started 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE)?
Jeff Schwarze (CAROL STREAM, IL)
I’d probably just off the overall board there. Doubt it would be a quarterback. Selecting between Bush and Sproles would be tough. Sproles is safer bet to stay healthy, but Bush looks like he’ll be a huge part of the Detroit passing game. Those are the two running backs with a chance to catch 80 balls. Cobb and Fitzgerald look solid.