Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Is Ian guilty of flip-flopping on Golden Tate? Who are the best kick returners? Why is Chris Johnson ranked so high? And an offense that could hold the key to fantasy drafts.
Question 1
I'm not going to rant because you changed your mind on a player. I know FF is an inexact science like the weather and every new day can change something. But I did pick up Tate thinking he'd be close to a Harvin clone, and now he's marginally a bye replacement. I'm curious to know that progression. (Incidentally I still think I'm in good shape)
James COSTELLO ( PORTLAND, ME)
I’ll give you the walk-through on my thinking on Tate. In 2012, he was sneaky effective at times. He averaged 10.3 yards per pass attempt, which was No. 2 in the entire league. He scored 7 TDs and threw a touchdown in 15 games, which ain’t bad. He averaged 46 receiving yards in those games. I was surprised when the Seahawks went after Percy Harvin, because I thought they were comfortable with the Tate-Rice tandem. In July, the situation changes. Rice is in Switzerland getting treatment on his knee and Harvin as the knee issue – looks like he’s out for most of the year. And there was an article or two that came out suggesting that Tate is the clear No. 1 guy and ready to take advantage of this opportunity. And he’s in a contract year. It all looks good. Russell Wilson is an emerging young quarterback, this looks like his No. 1 guy, and I think that makes Tate a probably 1,000-yard receiver with 8 TDs – a top-20 wide receiver. As an added bonus, Tate will return punts. He scored on a punt return in Kansas City in the preseason last year, and he had a good return at Green Bay in one of these practice games. That’s the reasoning behind Tate maybe being a nice impact receiver. But in none of Seattle exhibition games has he really jumped out as the next big thing. He’s not being used extensively, and he hasn’t looked special in his limited opportunities. It seems like they’ll spread things around. How much better is Tate than Doug Baldwin (who’s healthy this year)? Sidney Rice will be back for the regular season, and he was similar to Tate last year. Their young receivers have looked really good – Jermaine Kearse and Stephen Williams. I think those guys will make the team and see spot duty. Williams is a nice deep threat; I think he's got 5 catches of 38-plus yards in the preseason. I also like their speedy backup tight end, Luke Willson. I think they’ll bring him on and have him try to sneak deep for a big play in most games. And as well as the Seahawks run the ball, I don’t think Russell Wilson will be a monster. I think I had the team at 235 passing yards per game at one point, and now it’s been dialed back down to 228 (and Tate is tied into that projection). I think he’ll still be OK. I wouldn’t worry about him too much. If you want the gut-feel projection, he was an 800-yard guy last year. This year, I was originally going 1,000, now I’ll call him a 900-yard receiver.
Question 2
Has FFI ever published a '13 list of punt and kick returners? My league gets 1 pt per 15 kick return yards and I want to adjust my cheat sheet accordingly.
Mike Rubi (W HOLLYWOOD, CA)
I track those guys. That’s why there was the comical error in the Monday product, with Kerwynn Williams showing up around 40th among running backs. I noticed he was returning kickoffs for the Colts and wanted that noted. I duplicated Donald Brown’s stat record and put down Williams at have a 1 in 50 chance of returning a kickoff for a touchdown each week. But I didn’t zero out Brown correctly. I only erased his current-game stats, not the potential 3-4 games that he might be an active No. 2 behind Ahmad Bradshaw or Vick Ballard. So Kerwynn got credited as a 16-game spot contributor, which is embarrassing. With only 24 hours to turn around the 10 games that occurred Saturday night, I didn’t notice that error until Monday. Apologies. But you asked about kick returners, and I assume you want only guys who are also starters or significant contributors on offense? That being the case, I offer the following: Antonio Brown (punts), Darren Sproles (kickoffs and punts), T.Y. Hilton (punts), Golden Tate (punts), DeSean Jackson (some punts), Tavon Austin (punts), Dexter McCluster (punts), Jacquizz Rodgers (kickoffs), Rueben Randle (punts, I think), Cordarrelle Patterson (kickoffs), Jacoby Jones (both), LaMichael James (both), Jeremy Kerley (punts), Harry Douglas (punts), Eddie Royal (maybe punts – it will be either him or Keenan Allen), Jacoby Ford (kickoffs), Brandon Tate (both), Dwayne Harris (both). As a reminder, if you’re going after these yards, there’s more kickoff yards than punt yards.
Question 3
I'm a first-time subscriber, and I wanted to ask about CJ2K. He's ranked as the 2nd RB, 3rd overall player in my customized draft list. We have a 6 pt bonus for 300-yard passing and 120-yard rushing/receiving games, .5 point PPR. I'm just curious why he's so high on your list, as that's such a disparate position from any other list I've seen. I have the 7th pick, and I'm ready to pounce on him there b/c I know he'll still be on the board in my league. Is this projection based on his offensive line, which may be the second best in the league?
Eric Kaufman (Louisville, KY)
I don’t follow what the other analysts are doing. I don’t know where they’ve ranked him, and I don’t care. I know that there are many, many ‘experts’ out there who will throw the names down on a list without giving anything much thought. And there are ADP lists out there which show where a player is supposed to go, but that’s also not part of my process. I’m reading everything, carefully analyzing what’s happened in the past and observing each team in its preseason games. I’m working very hard to try to get each stat projection for each player right. In this case, I’m not giving too much weight to what’s happened to Chris Johnson the last two years. They were running a different offense, and it didn’t really seem to suit him. They’ve got a better offensive line now, and it seems to be a much more tailback-friendly system. If you look only at tailback and forget about his team, Johnson is a top-tier back – up there with the likes of Peterson, Rice, Charles and Foster. Now he’s in a favorably situation again, and I think you’ll see him get back to putting up difference-maker numbers.
Question 4
Re the Eagles' passing attack, you've mentioned that you expect them to spread the passes around. Do you expect it to be a vertical passing attack a la those of the Skins/49ers/Panthers/Seahawks of last year? If so, and given my league rules combined with the Eagles' expected pace, I'm thinking Vick will be our League MVP till he gets hurt.
Richard Loppnow (EPHRATA, WA)
For some reason, with like to throw around “vertical” passing attack, but we never use “horizontal”. The Patriots have a horizontal passing game. Quick step back and fire the ball out before the pass rush gets anywhere near you. Lots of short passes to the sidelines, then the knockout punch over the top when the time is right. I expect the Eagles will be in that horizontal group of teams this year, and I find them to be the most intriguing offense in the league. At times, it looks like they could be a top-5 offense – up there with the likes of the Patriots, Saints, Broncos and Packers. Then again, is any of this stuff going to work? And can they keep Vick healthy? And will he be anywhere near as good as he’s looked at times in the preseason. He had a couple of bone-headed mistakes in the exhibition at Jacksonville. So maybe it’s just an average offense. But as I say, I find them intriguing.
Question 5
I'm in a yahoo league in which we have to draft a team defense and then 3 individual defensive players (you start 2 IDP's). I've never been in an IDP league before and I'm really not sure of their value when it comes to selecting them in the draft. They get 1 pt for a solo tackle, .5 for an assist, 2 for a sack, 3 for an INT, 2 for a forced fumble, 2 for a recovery, 6 for a defensive TD, 2 for a safety, 1 for a pass defended, 2 for a blocked kick and 1 for a tackle for a loss. So in regards to drafting, I'd assume I'd draft them before a team defense and kicker, but would I start targeting guys before my backup WRs? Again, you need to start 2. Also, based on the scoring format I'd assume linebackers would be the most valuable? Thanks!
Mike Koffski (CHICAGO, IL)
I’d treat those defensive players the same way you treat everyone else. What can he do to make the team better? Can he give you an edge? Luke Kuechly is certainly a guy that everyone will be looking into. I think he’ll finish with 20 more tackles than just about everyone else; that’s like a player who’ll give you an edge of 3 TDs over the other guys at his position. NaVorro Bowman, Jerod Mayo, Chad Greenway, Bobby Wagner, Patrick Willis – these are guys I’d be looking at. I would have an eye on rookie Alec Ogletree of the Rams; he looked special in the Denver game, with an interception, a fumble recovery and another near-interception.
Question 6
I think I burned out on fantasy a bit last year. After some prodding from friends, I went hardcore fantasy last year. Started a website, started to twitter, joined a big money league, did Fan Duel all the way through the playoffs, in addition to 4 normal leagues (and the Fantasy Index Super League). This year, I've had trouble getting the enthusiasm up to do it all again. I've done less preparation this year than last. So what's the secret for you guys at Fantasy Index (besides being paid to do it). How do you get the mojo running high each year after 25 years?
Sean Chi (FLUSHING, NY)
For me, it’s a two-part issue. There’s fantasy football the job. I enjoy that; I like the challenge. It’s a great honor to have people care about my opinion – to be willing to pay to read what I write. So I take that very seriously. That’s my responsibility. It’s my job to put together the best rankings I possibly can. I’ve been working 75 hours a week on this since the start of the preseason. It’s a seven-days-a-week commitment, but it’s rewarding. For me, the part of the job that’s the most fun is when I get to do something with stats that nobody else is doing. (But at the same time, I’m getting really tired of watching crappy preseason games – ready to get the real games underway.) For the actual playing of fantasy football, that’s still fun. I find it’s a lot easier to be engaged in the game and to create and implement strategies when I’m on the frontlines doing it myself. I will concede that I don’t hang on every fantasy game like I did in the past. When the Monday Night game starts, I don’t necessarily know the score of all 3-4 of my fantasy games. Nowadays, I’ll submit my lineups on Friday or Saturday, then I’ll just check the scoreboards late Monday or early Tuesday to see how I fared.
Question 7
my question centers around the Cleveland Brown offense. This offense to me very much resembles the San Diego Chargers when they were a dominant offense under the leadership of Norv Turner. Brandon Weedon, T Richardson, J Gordon, G Little, and J Cameron and with a good offensive line could spell good things for the future. In particular, Josh Gordon interests me. I know that you don't have him ranked very high but I think that he could be a break out wr this year. He certainly has the physical attributes or metrics to be very good. I am not comparing him to Vincent Jackson when he was a Charger, but there are similarities. I would love to hear your thoughts.
JOHN SHELBROCK (FRANKENMUTH, MI)
I’ve seen a couple of signs of life out of that offense. At times in the preseason, it looks like they’re starting to get something going. But too often they haven’t been good enough. They’ve got Joe Thomas, so it’s easy to say it’s a good offensive line. But too often it’s not playing that way – running backs are getting hit in the backfield. And ultimately they’re trapped in the AFC North. Very tough to envision them sneaking out of the basement in that division.
Question 8
Since there has been discussion about past issues of the Index in other Mailbag questions, I think that there are a good number of us who have an interest in past issues. While some may not be able to buy the past issues, I think a gallery of the past covers would be a very popular feature.
Treavor Phipps (SALEM, IN)
To see the back issues, go to our Facebook page (inside Facebook, we’re under ‘fantasyindex.com’). If you look in the “photos” section, there’s an album with a cover from every year that we’ve ever published. I’m throwing up a 1993 Steve Young for this edition of the mailbag. Will save you having to look my grinning mug for a few days.
Question 9
With all of the starting jobs set who are the top handcuff type RBs to target on the waiver wire? I did some drafts early on and will be making cuts to replace guys like Joseph Randle, Latavius Murray, or maybe Bryce Brown now that Polk appears to be the backup. I think its a good thing for Lacy that Harris got hurt. Sounds like McCarthy planned on starting DuJuan over Eddie. You seem pretty high on a guy who wasn't even going to be the main guy. I think you’re too low on Hilton and Giovani Bernard. Bernard will take over the job by early October and Hilton looks like a straight up stud. Hilton top 15! Thanks and good Fantasy too all.
David Kennedy (STEAMBURG, NY)
McCarthy made a couple of comments about Harris starting. Those are comments – words. And easy to say after Harris was lost for the year. Eddie Lacy is a lot better than Harris, and I believed he was going to be their main back all along. We will document any up-in-the-air backup tailbacks in the Monday product. For now, you can look at Brian Leonard in Tampa Bay. Maybe Alfonso Smith in Arizona (I think he’ll be the guy there) and Rashad Jennings in Oakland. In Philly, I think it will be Bryce Brown.
Question 10
Other than the better known sleepers, who do you think are backup RBs that could take over as solid producers in 2014 with their current team or on a new team? I am specifically wondering if there is potential value with Kendall Hunter, Jordan Todman, Dunbar/Joseph, Polk/Brown, Stacy/Pead. Thanks for your help.
JASON WILHELMSEN (SMYRNA, GA)
Skimming over the backup running backs on each team, the following guys (to me) seem to have the chops to become starters in the future for some team: Bernard Pierce, Giovani Bernard, Ben Tate, Knile Davis, Bryce Brown, Christine Michael. Maybe Robert Turbin and Kendall Hunter. That’s it. Anybody else, I don’t think their value is high enough that I’d want to use a roster spot on them. Zac Stacy, Isaiah Pead, Joseph Randle, I have no interest in those guys.
Question 11
Hi Ian. I drew the #4 pick in a 12 team ppr league where you can start 1-3 RB's or WR's each week. I've done very well in the past loading up on 80+ catch WR's, but have never picked this low before. Usually if I'm this low RB is automatic. That being said, Calvin and Dez are right there with the top 4 RB's in my custom auction value cheat sheet. Actually Calvin is #1. Would you take one of those 2 monsters and hope Reggie Bush, Darren Sproles, or Matt Forte fall to you or would you look to grab one of the top 4 RB's. No way Calvin or Dez make it back around to me in round 2.
JOHN RUPPE (FORT MYERS, FL)
You have the ability to start one running back and three wide receivers, so I think you have the flexibility to comfortably step out of the mindset that you must select a running back in the first round. With the two flex players, it’s really just one position – I suggest you just look at overall points for RB-WR when making your decision. Wide receivers tend to be more durable. In mulling whether to select Johnson, I would be a little nervous about Matthew Stafford getting hurt; he passes a lot and doesn’t have much of an offensive line in front of him. But they’ve got a backup who’s pretty good (Shaun Hill) so I think Megatron should be fine.
Question 12
Do you have a primer on how to start a dynasty league and typical rules? More of our teams are thinking about making the switch from keeper to dynasty.
Scott Kopischke (MENOMONEE FALLS, WI)
I’m sure readers will chime in with some ideas. I like an auction. If somebody’s going to have Andrew Luck for the next 10-15 years, I think that should be determined by an auction, not by drawing names out of a hat. If you go the auction approach, give each team a $100 payroll. At the end of the year, you can keep anybody. Whatever guys you release, that frees up money for you to bid in the next year’s auction. If you want to go the draft route, have teams select 20 players. Protect whoever you want, but each time you keep a player you lose a draft pick (keep three players and you’re not picking until the fourth round; keep 15 players and your first choice is in the 16th round, etc.).
Question 13
Will you be releasing an update for dynasty rankings?
Nathan Kline (Topton, PA)
I’ve been working those into the weekly updates. For the rookies anyway. In the past couple of issues, we’ve revised the top 10 rookie running backs and top 20 wide receivers for dynasty purposes. I’ll try to get the tight ends into this final one as well. At quarterback, there’s really only two significant guys, right? Just Manuel, who looks really good, and Geno Smith, who does not. For the veteran players, you can how our opinions have changed on them in the team-by-team scouting reports.
Question 14
I'm in a league which allows for two QB's as one goes in the OP slot as a general rule. 5 points for a TD and a negative 3 for a Int. ESPN projections show QBs to be basically in the top 12 projected points leaders so which 2 QB's do I draft? Week 16 is our Super Bowl and week 11 is our final reg. season game. (12 teams). I’m thinking RG3 and A.Luck?
Curtis Smith (Parma, OH)
There are lots of good quarterbacks available this year. I wouldn’t go in with the mindset of getting any one particular guy. I would go in hoping to get the best buy. Maybe, for example, you like Luck more than Kaepernick, but if Kaepernick is going $6 cheaper, that’s your guy. With the Week 16 Super Bowl, you could potentially look at favorable matchups for that game. With it being a 12-team league, however, you might be better served looking at matchups in Week 15 that might get you into that game.
Question 15
I am in a 2qb league i was wondering how i can change the custom scoring section to reflect that when i plug in my leagues numbers. thanks!
michael minarik (NEW YORK, NY)
It’s a supply and demand thing. In a 2-QB league, you need to re-configure to account for more teams wanting them. Go to “Your Stuff” and pull down the “Scoring Systems” tab. Enter your scoring system. Check the “Auction Values” box; that’s where you mess around with the supply-demand stuff. Current settings likely indicate that about 28 QBs will be selected, with about 15 going for more than the min. You’ll want to change that to about 34 quarterbacks being selected, with 26 going for more than the min. This will cause quarterbacks to be properly slotted, moving up on your overall board.
Question 16
Long-time fan your mailbag column. I know you don’t typically delve into IDP topics, but I’m hoping you can offer your insights on valuing players based on positional scarcity versus how much a top player scores above others at his position, so I can apply similar logic when drafting defensive players. I’m in a 14-team PPR league with 29-man rosters – 11 offensive starters, 11 defensive starters and 7 bench spots. Our scoring system gives sufficient points for tackles, sacks, defended passes, etc., that defensive players score nearly as much as offensive players. (Our top 10 scorers last year were Adrian Peterson, followed by J.J. Watt and then a mix of QBs and LBs.) I need to start QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, 4 Flex (RB/WR) and K on offense, and 2 LB, DL, 2 CB, 2 S, and 4 Flex (any Def – most folks choose LBs) on defense. Typically a couple of LBs are drafted in the 3rd and 4th round, but most owners don’t choose defensive players until they have most of their offense in place. I’m wondering if it makes sense to pick an RB in round 1, grab top defensive players for the next 5-6 rounds, and then circle back to pick up what’s still available on offense. How much better do the top LBs need to be (and how rare) compared to the rest of the field to offset the RBs and WRs I would miss out on?
Doug Alger (SAN JOSE, CA)
Defense wins championships. That’s what they say, right? If you’re in a league where a bunch of defensive players are finishing in the top 10 in scoring, you’ll have to look at them. Luke Kuechly and J.J. Watt should probably be selected in the first round. But as you point out, it’s about scarcity. Use the 10th round as a benchmark. If you don’t select a linebacker until the 10th round, who will you get? Maybe this is your 13th-best linebacker or whatever. Look at how many points he’s going to score. Maybe your 10th-round linebacker is worth 150 points, and Kuechly is going to score 200. So Kuechly would be worth about 50 points. Now do the same with quarterbacks and the other positions. Maybe you think you’re getting Bradford, Cutler or Roethlisberger if you select a quarterback in the 10th round. How much better is Brees than those guys? This is one way we can stack a draft board. With it being a PPR league with 4 flex players, I think you’ll be looking to stockpile lots of pass catchers. And with 4 flex defenders, I think you’ll want plenty of tackling linebackers and safeties on the other side. With the draft being 29 pounds, you probably want to look more at the 15th to 17th round as the benchmark round, rather than the 10th.
Question 17
Ian, faithful reader since 1997 & no one else comes close. So, I'm performing my post-auction autopsy (12 teams, $200 cap, std scoring). Every year, I say "don't be afraid to overpay for stud RBs", and yet, I watched Forte ($51), Vereen ($30), Murray ($41), McCoy ($60), Rice ($59) go for far more than I thought they were worth - and I just couldn't pull the trigger. Now my roster is Charles ($35), Green-Ellis ($19), Brown ($9) and Ingram ($7), plus C. Michael ($3) and Rodgers ($1) in reserve. Should I stand pat, or fire up the trade engine to get a legitimate #2? I'm slowly convincing myself that 2 of Ingram/Brown/BJGE for RB2 & Flex based on matchups is not that bad...but am I fooling myself? (For what it's worth, remainder of starting lineup will be QB Rodgers, WRs Wayne & Givens, TE Gonzalez, K Nugent & D/ST Bengals). What do you think, Ian, is it time to start scouting the #1 rookie picks for 2014?
Scott Anderson (LAKEWOOD, CO)
You got Jamaal Charles for $35. That’s less than DeMarco Murray and a small fraction of what was paid for Forte, McCoy and Rice. And you’re complaining? To me, it looks like you did fine. I assume there’s some receiver depth there that will help with the flex. Losing Andre Brown hurts, but you’ve still got Green-Ellis and Ingram, and there’s still the waiver wire to work.
Question 18
Ian, I'm looking for projections for QB completions and don't see any in the update. Our league gives .25 points per completion and I'm looking for a way to account for that ... any suggestions?
Eric Schmit (KEIZER, OR)
Convert them into yards. The average completion is about 11 yards, so just give 1 point for every 44 passing yards. If you’re currently at 1 point for every 20 passing yards, change it to 1.4 points for every 20 passing yards. That will be close enough for our purposes.
Question 19
I am in a keeper league. We are allowed to keep 8 players. We start 1 qb, 2 rb, 3 wr, 1 te, 1 k, 1 def each week. 2 questions. Would you keep Andy Dalton or Ph River at QB ? leaning to Dalton right now. WR quandry I have room for 1 more WR and it is either M Wallace or Givens (Rams)
Mark Flood (WEST LINN, OR)
Put me down for Dalton and Givens. Dalton over Rivers, that’s an easy one. That’s the equivalent of a doctor giving a consult. “I was working with this nail gun and accidentally fired one through my palm. Do you think this is why my hand is hurting?” It’s tougher with Wallace and Givens. Dolphins might be a team on the rise. But I have been impressed by Givens this preseason; I think he’ll be the go-to receiver in St. Louis.
Question 20
Would really appreciate some advice for an upcoming draft. 2 player keeper league, keep one round above previous years draft position. Grabbed Alfred Morris in the 15th round last year and can be kept for a 14th round pick. Considering trade offers but with my other keepers locked up I only want draft picks back. Having trouble valuing a late first round talent in the 14th, what kind of picks should I reasonably expect in return?
VICTOR KITZES (MAPLE VALLEY, WA)
He’d probably be selected in the second round, right? You’ve got him in the 14th round. How about a eighth-round pick as an initial starting point?
Question 21
You have Chris Johnson and Ray Rice ranked #2/#3. If you had the #2 pick would you really draft CJ or would you try and steal him in round 2?
JOHN THOMAS (Cleveland, OH)
I don’t see much difference between those top backs. Peterson, Rice, Charles, Johnson, Martin, McCoy, Richardson. They’re all kind of the same, aren’t they? Not a good year to be picking No. 1, in my opinion.
Question 22
I'm in a 12 team league,TD's are 6pts with a 2pt bonus for TD's over 40 yds.golden tate is my bottom wr.i was thinking of dropping him and taking a flyer with Blackmon .my other WR's are amendola, vjax,T,smith and S.smith(car)
Kevin Toland (SOUTH BOSTON, MA)
I’d keep Tate for now. If he doesn’t do much in the first two games, you can think about bringing in Blackmon (who’s due back in Week 5).
Question 23
8 team league, snake draft, scoring system most like distance with this exception:passing td's are worth 6 points just like running td's and qb position is a team catagory so you get the G.Bay backup if you would take Rogers as an example. Long Long time customer Thanks
ROBERT FAUT (AVONDALE, AZ)
For team passing stats, I’ve got them something like this: NO, Den, NE, GB, Atl, Det, Dall, Ind, Cin, NYG, Sea, Balt, Wash, StL, Pit, Hou, Phil. If you’re giving points for running quarterbacks, then you can think about moving up these teams: Packers, Seahawks, Washington, Eagles, 49ers and Panthers.
Question 24
8-team dynasty league, typical yardage scoring with some PPR. Keep 8. Yes, I'm trying to trade, but am I crazy if I chose to release Patriots team QB to keep J Charles, M Lynch, S Ridley, A Morris, H Nicks, Andre Johnson, P Garcon, and Demarius Thomas? I really think I can pick up a team QB like Giants, Rams, maybe even Falcons with the 5th pick in each round (probably 2nd or later). 11 QBs are expected to be kept. Who would I cut to keep Patriots QB anyway? Ridley? Thanks!
JOHN MACHO (ELKO NEW MRKT, MN)
How many running backs and wide receivers are starting? If it’s just two each, then I would put the New England quarterback ahead of some of these guys. I don’t see Nicks, with his health issues, as anywhere near the value. He’s not going to get on the field often for your team. Even if you’re starting three wide receivers, I’d go Patriots quarterback over Nicks.