ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly from training camp to Super Bowl with answers to a new question being posted Thursday morning. How the guest experts responded when we asked them: Which player will be on the most fantasy championship teams?
SAM HENDRICKS
C. J . Spiller. 1700 combined yards, 12 TDs and 60 receptions. In a PPR league that is 300 fantasy points and a championship... Buffalo plans to "give him the ball until he pukes". Now that's confidence. E. J. Manuel will start over Kolb and that should keep defenses a little unsettled. It will open up some lanes so that he can improve on his 6.0 YPC from 2012. Now if Spiller can only get some decent passes in the open field then he can work to improve on his dismal 10.7 yards per reception (kidding). The dual threat Spiller presents will be unleashed in 2013.
Hendricks is the author of Fantasy Football Guidebook, Fantasy Football Tips and Fantasy Football Basics, all available at ExtraPointPress.com, at all major bookstores, and at Amazon and BN.com. He is a 20-plus year fantasy football veteran who regularly participates in the National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) and finished 7th and 16th overall (out of 228 competitors) in the 2008 and 2009 Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC). Follow him at his web site, www.ffguidebook.com.
SCOTT PIANOWSKI
I have two ways of approaching this question. Right at the top, I think Adrian Peterson will be a common thread winning player because he has such a high floor and picking first is definitely a major advantage in the antiquated snake-draft world. But anyone who finds a strong running back in the middle or late rounds is also giving their winning chances a significant boost. With that in mind, I'd name Eddie Lacy, ready to be Green Bay's bell cow and perhaps likely for 10-plus touchdowns right away.
Pianowski has been playing fantasy football for 20 years and writing about it for 17. He joined Yahoo! Sports in 2008 and has been blogging 24/7 on RotoArcade.com ever since.
MIKE CLAY
Rob Gronkowski. The most dominant per-play player in fantasy football over the last two years, Gronkowski can now be had as late as the fifth round of drafts. Sure, he may miss a handful of games, but he's expected to be out no more than a quarter of the regular season. With the likes of Brandon Myers, Martellus Bennett, Fred Davis, and Brandon Pettigrew available after Round 11, it's very easy to find a short-term replacement. One of those veterans for a few weeks combined with Gronkowski for a good chunk of the season lands you elite production from your tight end position. Owners who take a chance on Gronkowski in the fourth round of drafts will have no trouble making a title run this season.
Clay is the Managing Editor and Director at Pro Football Focus Fantasy. It's there that he created a batch of advanced statistics, most notably average depth of target (aDOT). Mike also works as an NFL writer at Rotoworld.com and has contributed at PhiladelphiaEagles.com and for Athlon Sports.
ALAN SATTERLEE
That's a tough question to answer and no one player can really win you a title. I do think the optimal draft start (1st two rounds) is either RB-WR or WR-RB, and the key to the start of the draft is to get one of the elite WRs (Calvin, Dez, Thomas, AJG, Marshall). So, if you go RB first I think Trent Richardson is going to lead many to the promised land. T-Rich is going to have a huge workload, with fantastic play-calling for his fantasy outlook and a great OL as well. If you go WR first, I like Dez Bryant to help win a lot of titles. I think Bryant will be the #1 WR this year.
Satterlee is Co-Owner and Chief Editor/COO of FantasyFootballWarehouse.com. FFW features comprehensive profiles for all the major 2013 skill-position rookies, its Trading Spaces series, the team Deep Dives, the Speed Bump competition plus draft strategies, rankings, projections and more. FFW runs in tandem with its dynasty site DynastyFootballWarehouse.com.
IAN ALLAN
Eddie Lacy. I think he’ll start in Green Bay and be a solid performer. I think he’ll be undervalued relative to where he’s picked. At the end of the year, guys will look back and say, “Gee, Lacy should have gone in the first or second round.” So when he goes in the fourth, fifth and sixth rounds in a lot of drafts, those guys will have a big advantage.
Allan is the senior writer for Fantasy Football Index. He's been in that role since 1987, generating most of the player rankings and analysis for that publication. His work can be seen in Fantasy Football Index magazine, and also at www.fantasyindex.com.
DAVID DOREY
That is a great question and invariably it is someone you would not guess – i.e., Adrian Peterson last year. It would almost have to be another running back because of their consistency and difference making ability. Since it will be a non-obvious answer I am going to swing for the fence here and say Matt Forte. New offense should heavily use him as a runner and a receiver with minimal sharing.
Dorey is the co-founder and lead NFL analyst for The Huddle and author of Fantasy Football: The Next Level. He has projected and predicted every NFL game and player performance since 1997 and has appeared in numerous magazines, newspapers, radio and television.
ERIC CATURIA
In attempts to ponder over players that are well below their ADP from a season ago, yet have the potential to match or surpass the presumed top options at their respective positions, very few names come to mind, with one in particular seemingly hiding in plain sight: Panthers quarterback Cam Newton. I've been able to snag him as low as pick 42 in a draft, while his ADP on entities such as ESPN and Yahoo! reside in the low-30s (32.4 and 30.2, respectively). After a bumpy first five weeks last fall, the signal caller failed to tally a touchdown, either through the air or via the ground, on just two occasions, while totaling at least 200 yards passing in 10 of 11 contests. His eight rushing scores did not match the record 14 he claimed in his rookie campaign, but because he has surpassed 700 yards in the ground in each of his two seasons and only has DeAngelo Williams to contend with for goal-line carries when Week 1 arrives, his combined output can handily approach the triumvirate of Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Peyton Manning, each of whom has typically been selected at least a round ahead of Newton.
Caturia is a writer/editor of NFL, MLB, and NBA content for RotoWire. He can be found on Twitter @etcat30.
CORY BONINI
While I feel this may be taking the easy way out, the highest scoring running back -- likely Adrian Peterson -- probably will be the most prevalent player from championship rosters. Owning AD practically ensures you had the first pick and then were able to build elsewhere in the next few rounds. I see him being able to produce 1,700-plus rushing yards and at least a dozen touchdowns. Pairing that kind of production with just about any other running back with a pulse makes for a strong weekly lineup.
Since 1996, KFFL.com has been combining its award-winning news service with fantasy analysis. KFFL.com offers services including daily news, draft guides and in-season advice. Completely free, KFFL.com is your destination for fantasy baseball, football and NASCAR cheat sheets, tips, sleepers and much more. KFFL.com has won more than a dozen expert championships and was listed as "One of the 10 essential sports-related online destinations for fans, athletes and fantasy owners" by Time.com. KFFL.com is property of USA TODAY Sports Media Group.
SCOTT SACHS
There is a very good chance that Drew Brees will again lead the NFL in TD passes. At the minimum, he should finish in the top 3. With the return of Sean Payton, the Saints have a lot of promise this year to rebound from a very turbulent 2012. The problem for them is twofold. Once again, New Orleans is fierce on offense, but the exact opposite on defense. Secondly, they are in a division with Stacked-lanta, plus potential up-and-comers in Carolina & Tampa Bay. Therefore, the Saints will be most likely vying for a Wildcard berth all season long, thereby ensuring there will be no resting starters in NFL Weeks 15/16/17--the time period most Fantasy Leagues have their playoffs. So for all Fantasy Owners that have "The Brees", let us shout WHODAT!
Sachs runs Perfect Season Fantasy Football, offering LIVE Talk/Text/Email consulting & advice. Winner of Fantasy Football Index's 2012 Experts Poll & 2011 Mock Auction League, Scott can be found at http://perfectseasonffb.com/.
JAKE CIELY
I'll give you two: Trent Richardson and Reggie Bush. Richardson will be the one for standard leagues. When I wrote about him coming out of college, I said, "Richardson is Adrian Peterson except that he runs through people instead of cutting back as much." He has a similar skill set and the upside is tremendous. If he stays healthy, with Chud and Turner, TRich will carry teams, mainly because he's barely costing a top-10 pick! The pick value with TRich is exponentially greater with Bush in PPR leagues. Bush is narrowly inside the Top 25, and that's amazing value. There is no doubt that Bush is set for 60-plus catches, and he has little competition when it comes to regular carries as well. Bush is a PPR RB1 going at a low-end RB2 price! Just like Richardson, the fact that you can get a running back at that price whose return will be much greater is why teams will win championships with him.
Ciely oversees the fantasy football staff for Football.com and assists with social media, including Twitter and Facebook. He is an award-nominated fantasy writer with over 15 years of experience. He started his fantasy sports career with his own blog and eventually became the Managing Editor at RotoExperts.com. He’s also a poker enthusiast, which is why you see many poker references, including his nickname “All In Kid.” Jake has also introduced new metrics to fantasy football analysis.
MIKE NAZAREK
Peyton Manning. Despite the fact he's an upper-tier fantasy quarterback, he's sliding in many drafts, providing some of the best value for fantasy teams this summer.
Nazarek is the CEO of Fantasy Football Mastermind Inc. His company offers a preseason draft guide, customizable cheat sheets, a multi-use fantasy drafting program including auction values, weekly in-season fantasy newsletters, injury reports and free NFL news (updated daily) at its web site. He has been playing fantasy football since 1988 and is a four-peat champion of the SI.com Experts Fantasy League, a nationally published writer in several fantasy magazines and a former columnist for SI.com. For more info go to www.ffmastermind.com. Nazarek can be reached via email at miken@ffmastermind.com.
MICAH JAMES
Jimmy Graham, for several reasons. First, even though he was dealing with some significant (although not well-documented) injuries in 2012 and even though the Saints' offense struggled a good bit during the season, Graham still ended up as the #1 TE in typical PPR formats. Second, Graham is only heading into his 5th season of playing organized football which means he has yet to reach his full potential at the position. I expect Coach Payton to fully leverage Graham in 2013, and I expect the former hoops star to be the focal point of the Saints' passing attack. Third, in almost every Value-Based Drafting scenario for 2013, Graham is far and away the most valuable player. I believe that owners who rely on a VBD strategy (and thereby own Graham in higher proportion than others) tend to be pretty savvy players. I think they will also round out their squad with excellent complements, giving these teams the best chance for a championship season.
James, the FFMagicMan, has been playing fantasy football since 2000. James won the FSTA Accuracy Rankings Challenge in 2012, finishing 1st out of 61 expert entries with an unprecedented Top-9 performance across all four skill positions. You can follow James on Twitter (@FFMagicMan) and be sure to listen to his weekly fantasy football strategy podcast, The Magic Formula.
PRETZEL MAY
Danny Amendola comes to mind for this question. Amendola has definitely had some trouble staying healthy but is now on a team that has shown they can maximize the production from the slot receiver. His value is down a bit with all the talk of the turnover in receivers in New England. Currently in most 12 team leagues you can pick him up in the late 4th/early 5th round. Getting potentially Wes Welker type fantasy production that late in your draft is a huge steal and will go along way to solidify your championship.
The May brothers have more than 20 years of combined fantasy football experience and are the co-founders of FantasyDraftMaster.com. In FDM's first 3 years as part of the Fantasy Index Experts Poll, they have amassed 1st- and 2nd-place finishes. The cornerstone of FantasyDraftMaster.com is the UberRank which is a revolutionary approach to the traditional fantasy football cheat sheet. FantasyDraftMaster.com also offers insightful and humorous commentary and recommendations on waiver wire pickups, lineup submissions and weekly pick em' pools. For more info on FDM, visit the web site or email info@fantasydraftmaster.com.
ANDY RICHARDSON
A couple of players leap to mind as guys who could significantly outperform where they're being selected. One is Eddie Lacy, who looks like the real deal in Green Bay and probably won't come off the field very often. The other is Colin Kaepernick, who I'm surprised isn't getting more attention in drafts. All these reports about defenses are going to figure out the read-option -- I'm not buying. Everyone can "figure it out," the question is if you can stop it when the quarterback is actually capable of throwing the ball well in addition to running it. I like these two players to be on a lot of fantasy champions (and I hope I'm right, since I keep drafting them).
Richardson has been a columnist and contributor to the Fantasy Football Index magazine and web site for 12 years. His responsibilities include team defense and IDP projections and various site features, and he has run the magazine's annual draft and auction leagues since their inception. He previews all the NFL games on Saturdays and writes a wrap-up column on Mondays during the NFL season.