Ian Allan fields your fantasy football questions (except the "Who Should I Start This Week?" kind -- he skips those). In this edition: Why forecasting huge numbers for any player doesn't make sense. Why Reggie Bush has a Kardashian-like ranking on the PPR board. How the Andre Brown injury affects draft boards. Why Ian might be overvaluing wide receivers. And much more.
Question 1
Looking at the projected points you have for players under my scoring system, the highs are not high enough, and the lows are not low enough. Looking at last year's scoring for my league, I had three QBs go over 400 pts., with Brees topping out at 450. The #25 QB only scored 180 pts. Your projections for this year for my league are 392 for Manning and 240 for Rivers. I'm able to enter my rules pretty much exactly with your system, so I'm wondering why the disparity? With a tighter spread that you have, it kind of suggests that the top QBs aren't really worth that much more as your spread shows a difference of only 152 points from 1-25 whereas last year's reality showed a difference of 270. I think that's going to make a difference in my valuations. It's the same deal, more or less, with my RBs. WRs get closer, and then the TEs seem to align pretty well. Can you help me understand why this might be?
DARREL OWEN (SACRAMENTO, CA)
Everything went right for Brees last year (in fact, everything’s gone right for him two years in a row). When he’s on his game, he’ll give you about 5,000 yards and 45 TDs. But when I’m building my stat model, I have to factor in the probability that things could go wrong. What if he dislocates his shoulder in the second game? What if they run the ball a lot more? When you starting working in those possibilities, the good guys (Brees, Manning, Brady) will drop a little, and the crappy quarterback (Rivers, Ponder, Pryor) will look better.
Question 2
Curious for your feedback again on FFPC leagues. Your overall rankings definitely do not favor running backs. I think this is understandable given the ability to start 2 flex positions and the 1.5 points per catch for tight ends. With that said, those drafts still seem to have rbs fly off the board very early. Does this need to be taken into consideration or is the thought that the value of the WR's and Tight Ends and the additional 2 flex spots will create separation from other teams if you have stockpiled those positions regardless of the lack of running back depth that you will assemble? As an example, picking in the top half of a league, you may be able to draft a Jamaal Charles type back and then still get WRs/TEs that actually figure into your top 10-12 overall?
WILL SAYRE (SACRAMENTO, CA)
Sounds good. I think you’re on the right track. You’ve got to balance the reality of the situation you’re in. There’s the rankings you have in front of you, and then there’s the behavior of the other guys in the league. If you bite the bullet and reach for a running back a little bit early in an early round, it can save you having to reach more for one in the future. With the way I grade the players, I also might discriminate a little bit against running backs. At that position, I’m very aware of the injury possibility. I’ve researched running backs from the past, seen how many get hurt, and I have almost all of the starting running backs slotted to play about 13 games. Durable guys are up at 14; injury-prone guys are down at 12. But with wide receivers, I tend to operate from the mindset that they’re playing 16 games. The only guys who are put down at 14 and 15 games are the guys who have a well-documented history of getting hurt – Anquan Boldin, Marques Colston, etc. But this might not be fair. I will look into it more closely, but the reality might be that the average, healthy wide receiver tends to play about 15 games. A lot of seemingly durable wide receivers will pull a hammy or sprain an ankle. Let me look into this and possibly make a policy change for the 2014 season.
Question 3
I am sure you won't get around to this question before my sunday draft and over the last 15 years you have rarely steered me wrong. But you have Reggie Bush jumping all over the place on your PPR Cheat Sheet until Aug 22 he was steadly ranked #16th, then on Aug 26 he jumped up to #4. Aug 6th - #6 , Aug 30th - #5. how do you guys decide he's worthy of such a huge jump especially since their is a more then likely chance he won't play 16 games.
JAMES TALLEUR (HIGHLAND, NY)
Sorry, I’m just seeing this now. Yes, we’ve got Bush really high on our board. That’s the nature of the PPR format. When you have a guy who catches a half-dozen passes per game, he’s gold. Look at where Darren Sproles has finished in that format in your league in recent year. Bush is a Sproles-type guy, and he’ll be out there more – they’ll use him more as a runner. It becomes a lot more complex when you factor in the injuries. If Bush stays healthy, he might be the No. 1 running back in that format. Watching the preseason games, he moved up on my board when I decided that #1, the Lions definitely will pass the heck out of the ball again this year, and #2, Bush will be a huge part of their offense as a receiver. I think he played about 3-4 quarters in the preseason and caught 10 passes. He’ll be terrible as a runner, though. He carried 17 times for 21 yards in August, which is the worst preseason by any starting running back in the last four years. And you are correct in pointing out that he’s really an injury waiting to happen.
Question 4
With the injury to Andre Brown last night, what effect will that have on David Wilson's draft position? Do you see the Giants just plugging in another goal line back? Would that back see as many carries as Andre Brown would have?
Trevor Thomas (RENO, NV)
I think Wilson will be outstanding this week at Dallas. I think he’s the No. 2 back on my board. Before the start of their second game, however, I think they’ll add another back. I know they’ve been contacting and working out other guys – Beanie Wells, Jonathan Dwyer, Ryan Grant, etc. If DaRel Scott knocks it out of the park this week, he’ll be the No. 2. If he plays like DaRel Scott, then the team will sign somebody else to handle that job for the next two months. There are rules that make is favorable to sign a guy like Wells AFTER the first game. If he’s on the season-opening roster, per labor-agreement rules, I think his salary for the season then become guaranteed. That’s why it makes sense for them to wait a game before making a move. Andre Brown should be healthy and ready to come off the short-term IR for the final eight games.
Question 5
Oldest fantasy football league? I am preparing for my 34th draft in the Hawkeye Steel Football League. I was 28 at the first draft and am now 61. The league has thrived over the years. Most of the owners are now partnerships, and we have a waiting list for owners. We still have 4 original guys in the league. First player taken at the first draft in 1980? Terry Bradshaw. Not a great pick. It took a while to understand the financial consequences of our rules. My first pick was Earl Campbell with the fourth pick. I had the two Super Bowl QBs on my team - Jaws and Plunkett. It has been a blast over the years. Our rules are a little unique since we operated in a vacuum for years. Roto, not head-to-head, TD heavy scoring, IDP, individual KR's, and we play through the Super Bowl. By the way we were NOT the first FFL. We actually got the idea out of a Sport magazine article in 1980. Thought you might be interested in a piece of the real history of FFL. Best wishes. Love your stuff!
KEVIN TURNER (CHILLICOTHE, IL)
Thanks for the letter. Starting in 1980, you’re definitely getting up there. I started playing in 1986. I guy told me about the concept, then we cooked up our own rules, with a touchdown-only format.
Question 6
What will Miami do at TE now? I've read Clay will be their starter. I noticed him last year making a few plays, but one catch for 5 yds this preseason concerns me. Any chance they will go Egnew or Sims and one of them might be decent? Our league is deep and drafts 2 TE's.
Paul Bakalars (LA CRESCENT, MN)
In their final preseason game, I think one of their primary objectives was to pick between Dion Sims and Spiral Egnew. Those guys alternated series, and they made an effort to get them ball. Sims got the better of him. Not great, but he caught a short touchdown. They tried to pass to Egnew twice in the red zone, and it looked like he couldn’t get open. So on that brief look, I’ll tag Sims as the up-and-comer in the group. But he’s just a fourth-round rookie, and he looks kind of soft – like he’s a little out of shape. Not a guy should be considering. I also have no interest in Charles Clay, who might play more than either of those guys. They featured Clay heavily in the third exhibition game and he flopped. They threw to him 6 times, and he caught only one of them.
Question 7
In my auction last night it seemed that everyone had somehow obtained copies of my value board - every player was selling within a buck or two of my max price. Almost no one drastically overpaid for any one player, which meant that no one "slipped through" either. Any thoughts on how to handle that situation? I've never been in an auction like that where there really never were any great values to be had. The only thought I had (after it was over) was to maybe target higher-ceiling guys in the hopes that someone might pop. I'm afraid I now have an average team in a league full of average teams. Any suggestions you might have for the future would be appreciated. Thanks.
BILL REHOR (CULVER CITY, CA)
I’ve found this in our league. We’ve been using an auction for about 15 years, and now everybody is kind on the same page. We all know what the various positions will go for in our league. So it’s been a few years since I’ve walked away grinning with a team full of steals. (Of course, in this particular league, I also have the issue of competing in a league where two thirds of the teams have my price list in front of them.) I don’t know any way around this. If everybody in your league is doing a great job – not overspending and not underspending – than the logical progression is to a league with more parity.
Question 8
Longtime reader - love your service. Been using it for over 20 years, and has brought me tons of success. I have an unusual scoring system in one of my leagues, and am trying to tweak the custom ranking to match our scoring. We start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 flex. 6 points for all TDs, and yardage starts to accumulate after a tier. For QBs, the first point is at 150 yards, and another point for every 20 yards after. For RBs & WRs, it's 50 yards and every 10 thereafter. So there's a big advantage to a starting RB as compared to a backup, but after the first tier of RBs, WRs tend to become pretty important because there are more who can hit those tiers every week. Having a hard time getting the custom ranking for RBs especially to match our historical scoring within reason, as it tends to overvalue backup running backs relative to starters. For example, I can get the top 10 RBs close to our scoring, but when I do so, our 30th ranked running back the last couple of years has scored about 45 points, whereas I can't get the 30th ranked RB in the custom scoring to be much below about 60 pts, no matter how I tweak. The closest I've gotten is awarding no points for rushing yards, but a 20 pt bonus for hitting 100 rushing yards. At WR, I'm getting fairly close by using 25 yds receiving per point, and 6 bonus points for 100 yards. Would love your thoughts - I think a little more customization by adding bonus points by tiers would be awesome - any thoughts of adding this going forward?
Matthew Kelpy (ASHBURN, VA)
We’re making changes to our custom scoring. This year we added features allowing users to give credit for defenses holding opponents to different scoring thresholds, as well as bonuses for 100-yard rushing and receiving games and 300-yards passing. Next up on the docket, I think, will be points for completions and rushing attempts. They seem to be requested a lot. For your scoring, I think you should just go with 1 point for every 10 run/rec yards and 1 point for every 20 passing yards. That will work fine. Every quarterback you would ever use will pass for over 150 yards in a game. So they’re all getting an extra 7.5 points each week. But that doesn’t really change anything on your end. Same the field players. You’re not going to use anyone who’s getting under 50 yards, so I wouldn’t worry about it. Everyone’s just getting an extra 5 points per week. But if Chris Johnson beats DeAngelo Williams by a project 28-23 this week, how is that any different than him being him by a 23-18? He’s still 5 points ahead.
Question 9
I am reading article FFI about the low impact of rookie recievers. Who do I start week one Ahmad Bradshaw going up against Oakland Or Tavon Austin going up against Arizona? Tough call Tavon Austin is projected to get more point bit Ahmad Bradshaw is going against Oakland 9th in the AFC against the rush.
Alan Conley ()
Bradshaw isn’t even starting. They’re just starting to work him back in. Vick Ballard has been running with the first team.
Question 10
In the August 21 Fantasy News (Pats and Seahawks in Super Bowl?) you laid out your odds of teams winning for all games. Are there any revisions based on what you've learned in the last 2 weeks?
Jose Montana (ROSEMEAD, CA)
I re-worked those numbers and locked down on my final choices on Thursday morning. I got more aggressive with the picks this time. I didn’t like that on my first cut, the Raiders and Jets came out a little high. We know those teams will be terrible, and I wanted to see that reflected in the end result. Some other teams moved up or down or little, but it was similar. Still have Patriots-Seahawks as the two teams with the best records.
Question 11
As a Forte owner I was about to grab Michael Bush, but I am really intrigued by Christine Michael. Should I grab him instead?
Kelly AuCoin (BROOKLYN, NY)
Michael looks really good, but he’s probably more of a 2014 guy. I think you stick with Bush – not as talented, but more experienced and fits well with Forte. If Forte gets hurt, then you have Bush. With Michael, he’s got to work his way ahead of Turbin. And even then, if Lynch were to get hurt, you would still have the issue of whether you wanted to use Michael instead of Forte. It’s nice to have a roster where the puzzle pieces fit together.
Question 12
Thank you for the work. I won three of four last year with your help. I've purchased a DVR, read your updates and then go watch the first half of the games too. Oh, the league I lost, I had the top total points but ran into buzz saws each week. Two suggestions: 1) allow customizing for number of starting players and number of teams in the league and 2) provide a bit more flexibility on customizing the scoring. We've grown in fantasy from who scores a touchdown to who keeping track of who wipes their nose between second and third down and as your product is on the cutting edge of providing information such customization would be worth a few extra dollars. For a twelve team standard scoring league, we're picking #3. My brother-in-law and I are sold on an RB (either Rice or Lynch) in that spot. Assuming another 12-15 rbs go and APete was the first pick, that means top end 16 RB's total. Our next pick is number 22. We're then looking at either QB's #3-4 or WR #3-4. I'm a believer in playmakers first since we only start 1 QB per week. That puts us at choosing WR #3-6 or RB #16-18. I'm inclined to also consider Graham. Then taking the QB with the 3.03 to ensure we have one of the top 6 QBs. What are your thoughts?
Phil Eichorn (ROCKY RIVER, OH)
The rankings can be customized to account for varying number of starters. And let’s not call them “starters”. Let’s think of them as significant players. If you’re in a league with three starting wide receivers, for example, that fourth wide receiver is essentially another starter – he’s going to cover three bye weeks and at least half-dozen weeks where the regular guy has a tough matchup. Or maybe one of those top three gets hurt or just doesn’t perform like you thought he would. If you’re in a league where 12 teams are starting two running backs each, it’s not 24 starting running backs. It’s more like about 38-40 relevant running backs. Then you’re getting down to the point where the guys your picking might not be better than what’s getting picked up off the waiver wire in mid-September. Maybe Maurice Jones-Drew tweaks a knee and Jordan Todman (who isn’t on any fantasy roster) carries 10 times for 65 yards while filling in. All of a sudden, you would gladly release Shonn Greene or Danny Woodhead to get the services of Todman. This can all be accounted for in our custom scoring. Go to “Your Stuff” and select the “Scoring Systems” pull-down. Go in there and enter your league’s scoring system. There’s a box in there, “AUCTION VALUES”. Click on that one (even if you don’t use an auction). In there, you’ll find setup questions that allow you to account for the numbers of starters or relevant players. It will ask you how many running backs will be selected. That’s easy. And then it will ask you how many of those running backs are worth more than the minimum. That’s where you decide how many you think are relevant – better than the Todman-like guy who might come down the road in a week or two or three. Give a whirl, I think you’ll like it. And please do not select Marshawn Lynch No. 3 overall – too early.
Question 13
Who is Eddie Lacy's handcuff back? The last update was unsure and GB just cut Alex Green. I would like to add the handcuff, since I drafted him.
Henry Brooks (TAMPA, FL)
I believe it will be James Starks. Johnathan Franklin, I think, is being considered only a third-down back right now.
Question 14
Okay, just a few days left before our new keeper league starts. I have picked up L Green and K Thompkins on your advice in the updates. Any other deep 1st or 2nd yr players us keeper league owners should have on our Radar?
MONTE MCDONALD (LAS VEGAS, NV)
Love those pickups. Thompkins can play for you right now. Green, we’ll check back on him next August (unless Gates gets hurt). Luke Willson is another one of those kind of tight ends, but I don’t think you want to use a second roster spot on another developmental tight end.
Question 15
Best ball league - six WR's per team - 3 guys start... Any guys in your rankings in the 40-65 range that particularly stand out? I guess either guys who could have three or four big games as opposed to week-to-week consistency, or guys you think are more likely to be break-out players.
Andrew Beach (Toronto, ON)
How about Kenbrell Thompkins? He might go in that range. He’s an undrafted rookie, and I had never heard of him until about six weeks ago. But he’s starting for the Patriots, and they throw the ball around a lot.
Question 16
One thing I really believe in and try to keep in mine when i pick r.bs is strength of schedule.I have learned this the hard way in past years.I would dread the week my running back had to play say S.F. or Seattle.That said, i think the nfc west has the hardest schedule having to play seattle,S,F. twice.Also I think Phil, Det, Giants,G.B.Bal,and Minn has a hard schedule for r.bs. I think Den,Jets,Atl,T.b, Houston,and the very easiest looks to be Miami.L Miller may be a real sleeper pick this year.Do you agree?
BEN HOGEVOLL (SILETZ, OR)
I don’t use Strength of Schedule much. If I’m in a league where I am certain I will make the playoffs, then I start looking at those playoff games – moving guys up and down a little here and there. But in general, it’s just a tiebreaker type deal. I can’t bring myself to select a clearly inferior player because of his schedule.
Question 17
I as a long-time subscriber I know you get tons of mail, but I also like to share with you the results of my drafts to get a post opinion. Considering I use the site as a baseline, I'd imagine you do take some pride in your students :). 12 team snake with a standard roster, 1 flex and 6 pts/td pass. I had pick 7. J.Charles, CJ2K (couldn't believe he was there on the come around. I 1000% share your same thoughts on him.), D.thomas, amendola (really like him too.. think he's alot better than welker), d.richardson (this was the pick I have to question. I had the shot at Gronk, and passed. I considered a QB, but passed and thought the 3rd RB was really important. Thoughts on that selection? Torrey Smith, R.Wilson (nervous about him), g.olsen, e.manning, daniel thomas, knile davis, c.patterson, f.davis, stl d.
Bill Petilli (LARCHMONT, NY)
Looks like a good team to me. I think you’ll like Daryl Richardson a lot more after he puts together a big game against Arizona. In my opinion, you start Richardson over Johnson this week.
Question 18
Twelve team PPR league (start 2 RBs, 3WRs, and flex) where I draft 12th. I have Alf Morris (Rd 10) and David Wilson (Rd 11) as my keepers. I've been waffling back and forth about my approach for rounds 1 and 2: RB-WR vs. WR-WR. The other factor here is that both T-Richardson and Martin are also keepers, so they're already off the board. With Andre Brown's injury, I'm leaning towards trying to grab Dez Bryant and AJ Green with the 12th and 13th pick and look to grab the best RB with my pick in the 3rd. What are your thoughts on this approach...or what RB has to be available at #12 to go in a different direction?
Chris George (McDonald, PA)
In a PPR league with potentially four starting wide receivers, you should be doing backflips if you’re able to get both Bryant and Green at picks 12 and 13. That would be a coup.
Question 19
I recently had my draft in a 10 man standard league with 20 rounds and I had the 5th pick. I drafted 4 running backs with my first 4 picks them being Martin, CJ2K, Murray, and Gore. My 5th pick was Witten and I didnt take a receiver until my next pick when I drafted Reggie Wayne. My receivers ended up being Wayne, Nicks, Garçon, Decker, Michael Floyd, And Jeffery. I was wondering if you think my recievers are solid or just ok and if I should try to deal one of my backs for a top receiver?
Brian Overstreet ()
I would have drafted a wide receiver or two in the third and fourth rounds, but you’ve cast your lot with those guys. You have some decent-enough looking receivers. Probably best to see how they play for a week or two.
Question 20
Here is my dilemma: 10 team yardage league where you start 2 QBs and 3 RBs. QBs get 1 pt for every 30 yds, 5 pts for TDs and 10 pts for TDs >= 50 yds. RBs get 1 pt for every 10 yards and double pts for long tds. Do I protect Brees and forfeit a first round pick, or David Wilson for an 11th round pick? The custom scoring/auction values point towards Wilson as a better value, but it's tough to give up a blue chip QB in a 2 QB league. What do you think?
DANIEL FORD (ROCHESTER, NY)
I think it’s Wilson. Too good a value to pass up. But double-check by running the custom scoring system through the website and seeing where Wilson appears on the overall, given your double-quarterback rule.
Question 21
I am in a 2 QB league that allows us to retain keepers when they are drafted in rounds 9 thru 12. I drafted Andre Brown in round 9 (making him an eligible keeper) and was super excited to get him. Now he's got a broken leg. If I drop him and pick up another player, I cannot keep him (can retain keepers for up to 3 seasons). The keepers have to stay on my roster continually (even if on the bench). Is Andre Brown worth stashing as one of my six bench players all season, if he never plays, simply to keep him next year? The options I have to pick up another player pretty much consist of EJ Manuel, Brandon Weeden, Joique Bell, Kendall Hunter, or Knowshown Moreno. Are those guys worth picking up or am I better off retaining Andre Brown for next year (and maybe hoping he plays late this season)?
Andrew Napoli (SPRINGFIELD, VA)
No. Brown goes. Given that it’s a two-quarterback league, I would be very interested in EJ Manuel as a developmental quarterback for 2014. Weeden has value as well. Bell, Hunter and Moreno all come in ahead of Brown.
Question 22
I'm in a 10 team ppr league 6 pts all TD's. My draft was crazy as I ended up with Megatron, Brady, Ridley, Lacy & Amendola as my 1st 5 picks picking out of the 2 slot. Even plucked K.Thompkins later. My question is with all these Pats on board should I be looking to trade or just hang on to them all. Week 10 is looking a little bleak. thx
DAVID STONER (LARGO, FL)
I wouldn’t worry about it. Week 10 is a long way off. Who knows who’ll be on your team at that time?
Question 23
Are your auction values based on a $100.00 or $200.00 auction "cap".
Randy Graefser (BELLEVILLE, IL)
In our custom-scoring area, you can set them either way. I’m in three auction leagues myself this year. Two use $200, and one uses $100. I prefer the $100 format because it makes harder for other owners to shadow your bids. That is, if the salary cap was $1 million and the minimum contract was still $1.00, there would be no advantage to starting the bidding. I want a $1.00 player to be worth something. This is key with kickers and defenses in the late going.
Question 24
One last, I think, Kick Returner question. The 49ers list K Williams as the number 2 WR. He also looks first in line as KR. Any value(we get 1 pt/25 return yards plus 1 pt/10 receving)? Thanks!
MARK CLURE (MOUNT SHASTA, CA)
No. Maybe the 49ers will use Kyle Williams as a kick return (LaMichael James is out) but I doubt he’ll see more than spot duty as a receiver. Would be similar to drafting Jermaine Kearse from Seattle.
Question 25
Misjudged the value of QBs in a 12 team standard flex and op league and ended up with Dalton, Smith and Pryor at QB. Did manage to get Richardson, Johnson, Spiller and Wilson at RB (and can play all 4) and am solid at WR. So, stand pat, or trade RB for QB and if so who do you try to move and for whom? I MIGHT be able to target Ryan and Wilson, both on teams as the op starter and both teams have weak RBs.
Pat Smith (Mitchell, SD)
Why don’t you just sit tight for now. Dalton might be just fine at quarterback. He’ll be slinging it, and he’s got a nice cast of guys around him (wish he weren’t beginning the season at Chicago). Richardson’s value could shoot through the roof after Week 1. He’s got a very favorable matchup against the Cardinals.
Question 26
This is a 12 team non ppr league, 6 pts for a passing td. Please rate my team for me. Starters: Tom Brady, Alfred Morris, Chris Johnson, Roddy White, Steve Smith, Kyle Rudolph, Dawson, Bears DT/ST. Bench: Daryl Richardson, Vick Ballard, Roy Helu, Chris Givens, Golden Tate, Mohamed Sanu.
TED FARACI (MIDDLETOWN, CT)
That team will win a lot of games. Very impressive.