Ian Allan fields your fantasy football questions. Special Week 1 complaint edition. What the heck was up with misfires on Tom Brady, Vernon Davis, Bryce Brown and Jordy Nelson? Will double-teams doom Dez? And is it time to swing a deal for Somewhere Over The Dwayne Bowe?
Question 1
Oh you got me in week 1. Both Kembrall Thompkins AND Tavon Austin rated higher than my bench prize, Victor Cruz??!! Two rookies over a proven vet playing a primetime game versus a division rival? Oh, the agony. Each day that passes I question my decision to be a sheep more and more. But alas, even after enduring my mocking competitors, I stand by the advice (not necessarily my decision however - I could have chosen one or the other and still started Cruz). Gutsy rankings like this are what makes Fantasy Index the best damn fantasy football advice out there. And thank goodness there's still 15 weeks left.
BRYAN BERTSCH (MINNEAPOLIS, MN)
There are some weeks when I wonder why I even spend all the hours breaking down every game and matchup, trying to get to the truth. You’ve got the guy in your league, who doesn’t even know half the starters around the NFL, and his analysis amounts to, “Hmm … Victor Cruz. He’s that Puerto Rican guy who does the dance thing when he scores, right? I’m start him.” We spend all week analyzing every offense and defense and historical result and somehow wind up starting Thompkins and Austin. My team is 0-1, and the guy who doesn’t know anything about football is standing in front of my cubicle, doing the Puerto Rican salsa dance. Week 2 can’t come soon enough.
Question 2
I have a concern pertaining to Dez Bryant. Now that teams will be double teaming him going forward, do you think his numbers will drop? It sounds like he is frustrated by the double teaming and he was told by his coach to expect it every game and to deal with it. Your thoughts?
cliff streich (SPRINGFIELD, MN)
You don’t think any defenses last year thought of the idea of double-covering Dez Bryant? You don’t think the great receivers – Megaton, Marshall, Fitzgerald, A.J. Green – see double coverage all the time? It comes with the territory of being one of the big dog receivers. Bryant will be just fine. (And thank you, by the way, for the kind words.)
Question 3
Our league, World Associated Football League (WAFL) based in Sacramento, California, had its first draft in 1974 and is still going strong. Do you know of any fantasy football league that is old as the WAFL that is still in existence? We just conducted our 40th draft and our 40th anniversary will be next labor day. Thank you for responding.
Mark Hurst (ELK GROVE, CA)
As I understand it, the game was born in the Bay Area. Some of the employees of the Raiders and newspaper guys covering the team, while on an East Coast road trip in October, 1962. As one of our writers, Luke Esser, observed, that means that fantasy football was born during the Cuban Missile Crisis. That seems appropriate to me – captures the spirit of the game. In general, there are always more important things going on in life, but we spend a bunch of time instead caring about this crazy statistical game. You’re in Sacramento, so I’ll guess that somebody in your league is somehow tied to somebody from that original league. Ask the guys in your league. Who was the founder? And where did he get the idea?
Question 4
What's the love affair with Brady and the Pats? It's more than evident Brady will take a big fall in stats this year. Yet he is still ranked at 4. Brady looks like he will end up out of the top ten this year. Nobody to throw to. On another note why did it take so long to get on the Vernon Davis train? Jordy Nelson so low?? I normally am a glass half full guy but it seems you have dropped the ball this year. Long time reader and a little disappointed.
David Kennedy (STEAMBURG, NY)
With Brady, I didn’t expect Amendola and Vereen to get hurt in the first game. Vereen was going to be a big part of that passing game. I just learned yesterday that it looks like Amendola will miss multiple games. And when I saw Kenbrell Thompkins in the preseason, I thought he would be fine as an outside receiver there. Things change. It’s not the same situation it was a week ago. With Vernon Davis, we’ll see how it turns out. Jim Harbaugh has been there for two years, and in both of those seasons, Davis has been woefully underused. He wasn’t used at all in the preseason – I didn’t see any sign of him having any improved rapport with Kaepernick. Less than a week ago, one of the receivers who played on that team (Randy Moss) was on television, explaining how those two just don’t have any chemistry. Now, after one good game you’re throwing your hands up in the air, complaining that I missed the boat and something that was so easy and obvious to see. Same kind of deal with Jordy Nelson. He wasn’t any good last year – even before his injury issues. He missed all off this preseason with another leg injury. Didn’t seem logical to be to identify him as one of the big bounceback guys. But he sure looked good in that first game, didn’t he? We’ll see.
Question 5
I am in a league where we have special teams as a separate category That are both TDs and return yardage. I use your link for my rules. It showed Denver special teams as the 4th best team to play Week 1. I think you need to do more research on that. There are more touchbacks for kickoff returns in Denver than most other stadiums (where the main part of the return yardage comes from). Also Justin Tucker has a bigger kickoff leg then most. Luckily I knew all this and therefore benched the Denver special teams.
Jim Backstrom (HENDERSON, NV)
I am aware that the Broncos play at Mile High (or Invesco Field or Sports Authority Field at Mile High or whatever they’re calling it). I’m aware that there are more touchbacks at that stadium. I did a home-away breakdown on Matt Prater last year and concluded that his leg strength is only average. It’s the eight game at altitude that make him appear to be one of the best kickoff guys. But the rankings you’re looking at aren’t a prediction of expected return yardage. They’re the probability of a team scoring a touchdown on a kick return. That’s either a kickoff or punt return. There are about twice as many touchdowns scored on punt returns versus kickoff returns. If you look at the last couple of years, it appears there will be about 10 touchdowns scored on kickoff returns this year. That’s in 512 games (2 teams in 256 games). Anyway, about a 2 percent chance per game of a kickoff return touchdown. It will be about 20 touchdowns on punt returns, or a 4 percent chance. So with an average kick return team, you’re looking at about a 6 percent chance of a kick return touchdown each week. The really good teams, maybe they’ve got about a 10 percent chance of scoring on a kick return. The crappiest teams are maybe down around 4 percent. If you look at our projections for this year, you’ll see that Denver’s kick return number will be lower in all games when its playing at home. When it’s on the road against a team with an average or below-average kickoff guy, it will be higher. Denver has one of, if not the No. 1, kick returner in the league. When these teams played at Mile High in January, Trindon Holliday scored on not one, but two, kick returns – one on a punt and one on a kickoff. If you’re looking for teams to finish with the most return yardage, you should be looking for teams that will allow a lot of points. Kickoff returns are more valuable than punt returns. Look at the team figures. I don’t have them in front of me, but I think teams, on average, will finish with over 1,000 yards on kickoff returns but tend to finish around 350 on punt returns.
Question 6
In this week's redrafter for PPR you rank Shane Vereen #22. Where would you rank him today knowing he's out until Week 11?
LOUIS KOUTSKY (S PASADENA, CA)
I think he’ll be a part part of what they do in Weeks 11 on. He’s a Darren Sproles type guy. Had he played the entire season, I think he might have gone over 600 yards rushing and 600 yards receiving. With Stevan Ridley struggling, that might even have made him their primary back. Could give some fantasy team a really nice boost down the stretch. To me that sounds like about the 30th to 35th best back in a PPR format.
Question 7
I have the opportunity to bid on Julius Thomas in a couple of leagues. Is he going to be a top 5 TE this year? We have a cap of 1000 for the year. I'm thinking about spending big even though I have Vernon and Witten. Also is Peyton going to make all of us who didn't draft him pay this year. 50 plus Tds or was it just the revenge and adrenaline factor of opening night? The schedule looks favorable. Can anybody stop the Broncos this year?
David Kennedy (STEAMBURG, NY)
I think Manning’s for real. Now that he’s already got 7 TDs on the board, I will be surprised if he doesn’t throw 45 TDs. That’s a very conservative projection, I think. If they’re kind of close or on pace in November, I think they’ll push for 50-plus. He doesn’t talk much about it, but I think he’d like to get that touchdown pass record back.
Question 8
I have Jason Witten and Jared Cook … being offered D Bowe for Witten. I dig Cook, feel he is real deal in STL and looking to start him. My gut is Bowe will emerge as season goes on. I have B Marshall, P Garcon, Antonio Brown, Chris Givens and Lance Moore as my WRs. Too early or does this make sense?
Bob Neal (MISSION VIEJO, CA)
Can you send me the list of wide receivers who have thrived with Alex Smith at quarterback? Can he pass downfield? In San Francisco, Michael Crabtree (who’s a Bowe-type guy) never did anything. Then they switch to Kaepernick and Crabtree suddenly is one of the five most productive receivers in the league. You would never start Bowe ahead of Marshall in a zillion years. I will guess that out of Garcon, Brown, Givens and Moore, there will be another receiver in there who will definitely be way better than Bowe. So you’re adding another receiver who can compete for minutes with two other comparable dudes.
Question 9
Thinking about trading A Morris for E Lacy in a Keeper league. Any thoughts? (PS- Where do I find the winners for the best name contest in your Super League- my "Caught MRSA in the Nicks of Tyne" has to be up there somewhere.)
MONTE MCDONALD (LAS VEGAS, NV)
It’s early. I don’t want to overreact. But now that RG3 isn’t a running quarterback anymore, doesn’t Morris look a lot more like just a sixth-round draft pick? He’s not a special talent. He’s not a guy, where if he was a free agent, some team like the Cardinals or Jets would say, “Oh my, we’ve got to give this guy a big contract and bring him in here.” Not a receiving threat. I would take Lacy over Morris. As for the team name contest, I expect we’ll get that crowned before the end of the weekend. I have been busy and haven’t look through them yet. I expect the process will be that Bruce, Andy and I will each look through the list independently and pull out about half dozen finalists. That will give 10-20 finalists, depending on how many overlap. Then we’ll debate and discuss before crowning the champion.
Question 10
The re-worked site looks terrific. Thanks for putting out such a quality product, including the podcasts! Generally, you wouldn't want to overreact to week one games, but of the performances you saw over the weekend, which ones strike you as the most worrisome, and the most promising, going forward?
Rob Dammers (RINGWOOD, NJ)
I find myself kind of intrigued by Terrelle Pryor. Most fantasy systems are slanted wildly in favor of quarterbacks who run. He looks like he’ll probably be the most productive running quarterback. Makes sense as a fantasy backup now, I think.
Question 11
Do you have any stats for 2012 showing the total Field Goals ALLOWED by each team and, based upon that info, some of the kickers in 2013 that face teams that allow the most field goals?
Rick Cwik (LEMONT, IL)
I don’t think that system is clever enough. You can’t just take last year’s stats and think you’ve stumbled onto the holy grail of forecasting kicking production. The chart below shows field goals attempted in each of the past two years. Not that of the 32 teams, over half have moved up or down by at least a half dozen field goals
| Teams allowing most field goals in 2012 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | 2011 | 2012 | Diff |
| Jacksonville | 29 | 43 | +14 |
| Detroit | 34 | 41 | +7 |
| Indianapolis | 34 | 41 | +7 |
| Miami | 33 | 40 | +7 |
| Baltimore | 31 | 39 | +8 |
| Kansas City | 28 | 38 | +10 |
| Oakland | 29 | 37 | +8 |
| Carolina | 31 | 37 | +6 |
| St. Louis | 37 | 37 | 0 |
| Arizona | 48 | 35 | -13 |
| Pittsburgh | 27 | 33 | +6 |
| New Orleans | 32 | 33 | +1 |
| Dallas | 33 | 33 | 0 |
| Cincinnati | 27 | 32 | +5 |
| Atlanta | 28 | 32 | +4 |
| Tennessee | 28 | 31 | +3 |
| NY Jets | 30 | 31 | +1 |
| Green Bay | 27 | 30 | +3 |
| NY Giants | 31 | 30 | -1 |
| Minnesota | 35 | 30 | -5 |
| Washington | 41 | 30 | -11 |
| Philadelphia | 24 | 29 | +5 |
| Buffalo | 25 | 28 | +3 |
| Tampa Bay | 29 | 28 | -1 |
| San Francisco | 27 | 27 | 0 |
| Chicago | 36 | 27 | -9 |
| New England | 23 | 25 | +2 |
| Seattle | 37 | 25 | -12 |
| Denver | 39 | 25 | -14 |
| Cleveland | 34 | 24 | -10 |
| Houston | 36 | 24 | -12 |
| San Diego | 28 | 21 | -7 |
Question 12
I'm in a 0.5 PPR (keeper) league that starts 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, and a WR/TE FLEX. RB corps consists of CJ Spiller, Reggie Bush, David Wilson, Joique Bell, Christine Michael. Wideouts are Calvin Johnson, Randall Cobb, Mike Williams, Michael Floyd, Rueben Randle, Greg Jennings. Not to sound reactionary, but do you consider swapping Wilson for Reggie Wayne? Wilson seems to have an exceptionally short leash, and Wayne would be a much more confidence-inspiring weekly play than my youngsters or the weekly 3-30 line that Jennings will see from Ponder.
Justin Howe (Morristown, TN)
Wilson doesn’t even have a leash. He’s being held by the collar at this point. But he’s a very talented guy, and I expect he’ll bounce back and be a very nice player. I will keep Wilson (who’s young) and avoid the temptation of chasing after the nice Week 1 game by Wayne. Wayne is the oldest starting wide receiver in the league, right? (I know he was going to be the oldest starting receiver, and I can think of anyone off hand who’s come back to top him.)
Question 13
No Bryce Brown in the Aug 26 top 71 RB rankings? He's arguably the most talented backup RB in the league and plays in an offense that will rush the ball 40+ times. Even if McCoy stays healthy Brown is a top 35 RB and if McCoy goes down Brown is a top 5 RB. Please don't use Polk as an excuse, they are not on the same planet talent-wise and by that point in the preseason it was rather obvious.
Gregory Zambaras (Honey Brook, PA)
Why, two weeks later, are you writing in to complain about an August 26 ranking? Easy to say now, now that we all have the benefit of hindsight in seeing that Brown was the No. 2 running back at Washington (and that the offense had some success there). But Polk was the second-string running back in the first, second and third exhibitions. Brown is more talented but seemed to have problems picking up the offense, and he was fumbling.
Question 14
In your last cheat cheat update you indicated that you didn't see Leonard Hankerson having a significant role with the Redskins. He finished with 80 yards and 2 TD's against the Eagles. What gives? I'm in a 12 league pool and have Welker, Garcon, Alshon Jeffrey and Blackmon. Hankerson is still available and I'm think of dropping Blackmon and picking him up. Thoughts?
JOHN FALVO (BOLTON, ON)
I wouldn’t drop Blackmon for Hankerson. I think Washington will use Hankerson a little more in its upcoming games, but they’ve got a lot of guys. Garcon is the No. 1 there, Moss will play a lot. Morgan started their last game. It’s a mess. Blackmon should be very solid, I think, when he returns in Week 5.
Question 15
What are your impressions of Ray Rice's season now that the Thursday night debacle in Denver has played out? The 12-9 carry split with Pierce has to be concerning, right? He fell to me at #6 in a 12 team PPR league, so I still feel like he's going to be solid in a PPR league (I don't feel the same about standard leagues). But it seems like you didn't buy into the whole sharing time with Pierce deal that everyone was talking about in the pre-season considering you had him as your #1 overall player in your PPR rankings. Thoughts?
Brian Fulton (Brentwood, TN)
Rice did catch 8 passes in that first game, right? I wouldn’t be concerned about him at all. You should be very happy to have selected him No. 6.
Question 16
Great products, Ian. I have been using them for 10 years and many wins. I am putting together a cheat sheet of RBs for a school project using Excel. Any tips for collecting data? What data to ignore? Other tips? Any direction from you would be welcome. I appreciate you are a busy man, so an immediate response isn't expected. I truly hope you plan on doing this for a long time -- I couldn't win consistently without all your information!
Devin Cook (NASHVILLE, TN)
Decide what you’re trying to do. Are you trying to put together a basic-type project for a teacher who maybe doesn’t even know that much about fantasy football? Are you trying to put together a historical record of what’s happened in the past? Of how rookie running backs fare? Or of what we tend to see from running backs who are a certain age, weight or height? Maybe pick a particular specific issue that hasn’t been answered by the fantasy community in the past, then you could break some new ground. I think you’ll find all the stats you need at NFL.com. Another good website for looking at old stats is pro-football-reference.com.
Question 17
During my draft, the other owners in one of my leagues undervalued running backs, I think, so I ended up winning the bids on Jamaal Charles, Doug Martin, and Ray Rice (also got Lamar Miller). Unfortunately, we start two QBs and I have Russell and Tannehill (which might work out, actually), and my receiver corps is thin: Antonio Brown, Chris Givens, Emmanuel Sanders, Torry Smith, and Golden Tate. I'm considering going after some WR free agents which include Edelman, Hartline, Rueben Randle, Doug Baldwin, Brandon Gibson, and Burleson. It's a PPR league. Do you see any of the free agents as an ultimate upgrade over the receivers that I have, given the Week 1 outcomes? These guys all had decent games, but I don't know if any of them can do this any more consistently than the receivers I already have. In my other league, I have Peyton Manning. I know that has no bearing on my question, but I just wanted to say that.
DARREL OWEN (SACRAMENTO, CA)
Amendola supposedly will miss the next 2-6 weeks with a groin injury. While he’s down, I expect Edelman will lead the league in receptions. Maybe none of them will go for more than 10 yards, but he’ll catch a lot of balls.
Question 18
I am in a standard scoring league with teams picked by auto-draft. My less than remarkable RB corps is C Johnson, R Matthews, R Hillman and both Ivory and Powell of the Jets! I am considering dumping Hillman and whoever will be less useful in NY. The free agent pickings are slim, but do you think I'd get more value long term out of names like Leach or Pierce BAL, Blount NE, Hunter SF, Scott NYG or Thomas NO?
ALAN CAMERON (LEBANON, OR)
Pierre catches passes, if you’re looking for that kind of thing. Pierce and Hunter would be nice to add. They have value as No. 2 guys, and at some point they’ll start for some games and be very good during that stretch.
Question 19
Thanks, men, for the No. 2 ranking on Alfred Morris in your third pre season issue, followed quickly by your "other big loser" comment this week, now that I've drafted him. Ditto your consistent top 10 rank of James Jones, now featured in the 50's. Keep up the solid work.
PAT CALLAHAN (SOUTHAMPTON, PA)
Too early to give up on either of those guys. But suffice to say that Pat Callahan will be a very interested onlooker when Green Bay and Washington play each other on Sunday.
Question 20
Ian, think this week is make-or-break for Jones-Drew? I took him as my RB2 but if he can't get it going against Oakland...my options are grim after that. Vereen (ouch), Fred Jackson, Mike Tolbert, Marcel Reece. 12 team, 20 man rosters, so no help out there on waiver wire, except maybe Leon Washington. Should I grab him & hope he fills Vereen role until he returns?
Scott Anderson (LAKEWOOD, CO)
Keep your eyes open. No need to panic. Running backs get hurt and benched. I’m sure you’ll find an acceptable fill-in some time in the next few weeks. I agree with your assessment that Jones-Drew needs to show us something this week against the Raiders.
Question 21
Any chance you could get the format for overall listed like the following: 1 2 3 4 5 6 Instead of : 1 63 125 2 64 126 3 65 127 4 66 128 Makes sense to me. Thanks Ray Phillips Cornelius N.C.
Ray Phillips (CORNELIUS, NC)
I’m not sure if that’s possible, and I don’t know if it would be an improvement. I know there are some people out there who preferred to see things flow across. We’re members of a local swim pool. The directory there is in the Ray Phillips format. It always throws me, and I have trouble finding names in it. The more acceptable method in this country, I think, is to flow down a column until it’s done, then bounce up to the next one. But let’s see what the other guys think. If all the readers would prefer to see it in the Ray Phillips format, we’ll look into it and potentially make a change.