Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Why are more interceptions getting returned for touchdowns? Dissecting what went wrong with Montee Ball. Second-half prospects for Andre Brown. And players who could emerge in 2014.
Question 1
Question about defensive TDs. What percentage of INTs are pick-sixes, and what percentage of forced fumbles are being taken to the end zone by the recovering defender? And, are these percentages increasing relative to past years? Also, I assume kickoff return TDs are nearing all-time lows. What about punt returns?
peter chen (STANFORD, CA)
You’re very perceptive. Yes. Defensive touchdowns are happening more often. More takeaways are getting returned for touchdowns. Why, I’m not sure. But it’s interesting. With passing, you typically see about 10 percent of interceptions get returned for touchdowns. Fifteen years in a row, 9-11 percent of interceptions were returned for touchdowns. Then last year, seemingly out of the blue, that number jumped up to 15 percent. Teams (on average) scored 2.2 TDs on interception returns, even though interceptions overall were down (just 14.6 per team, when it was almost always up around 17 interceptions in the ‘90s). So that was weird. A one-year fluke, you might figure. But as we near the halfway point of this season, that 15 percent number is holding. There have been 237 interceptions, and 35 of them have been returned for touchdowns – so 15 percent again. Who has a theory to explain this? (Or at least a good joke at the expense of Matt Schaub?) Maybe it somehow has something to do with the new emphasis on avoiding helmet-to-helmet hits? The fumble numbers aren’t as interesting. There, we’re at 10 percent this year (16 of 159 fumbles have been returned for touchdowns). That would be the highest of the last 20 years, but not much higher than a lot of other years, and last year was a below-average number – 6 percent. With punt returns, those numbers have trended up just a little bit in recent years. There have been 20 and 18 TDs on punt returns in the last two seasons, versus 15, 17, 16, 10 and 13 in the previous five years. Maybe that’s somehow connected to the reduction in practice times for teams? The league changed the kickoff rules prior to 2011, so no surprise there’s been a dropoff in that area. Teams scored 18 and 23 TDs on kickoff returns in the 2009-10 seasons, but they’ve dropped down to 9 and 13 the last two years.
Question 2
Looking back at your preseason predictions how do you feel about your ranking of Montee Ball? Obviously Ball has been a miss thus far, but I feel like the emergence of Knowshon Moreno validates the belief that the starting RB for Denver would have a good season.
Kent Bailey (PUYALLUP, WA)
With these franchise quarterbacks like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, the offenses are going to tend to be outstanding, and there will tend to be a running back ranking in the top half dozen in touchdowns. Just look at the track records with these guys over the years. It doesn’t have to be an Edgerrin James. It can be more mortal guys – Dominic Rhodes, Joseph Addai, Stevan Ridley, Antowain Smith. That’s what I was looking for from Montee Ball. In hindsight, I should have given more weight to the possibility it might be one of their other backs – Hillman, Moreno. Moreno is definitely the starter there right now, but to me, it seems like they don’t want to rely on one, full-time back. They were mixing in Ball pretty liberally in the Washington game, and the short touchdown he (Ball) scored in that game was one of the more impressive runs I saw all weekend. A bunch of guys hit him at the 2, and he was able to keep the legs going and drive into the end zone. If the Broncos score another 9 TD runs the rest of the way, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Ball scored 4 of them. Rotating him in makes a lot of sense. It helps keep Moreno healthy, and if Moreno gets hurt, the team will be better positioned to switch to Ball. The big difference between these backs is pass protection. Moreno is a lot better on blitz pickups. And with the team having problems at both offensive tackle spots, that crucial right now.
Question 3
When RB Brown returns for NYG next week, do you expect a full workload or a limited role for a couple of weeks. In a non-bench league (you are allowed to put a player on a 1-week IR) who do you prefer between Brown and Chris Johnson (PPR format). Johnson's schedule looks promising even though he hasn't done anything yet.
Dennis Thomas (ROYAL OAKS, CA)
I expect Andre Brown will be their starter right away. He’ll be spelled by Brandon Jacobs and Peyton Hillis, I imagine, but Brown should be their main guy. I think he has considerable fantasy value. But if your league has a loophole allowing injured guys to be held for a week, you’ll want to take advantage of that. Chris Johnson is playing against Jacksonville in Week 10, so no way would you ever want to start Brown ahead of him in that situation.
Question 4
Can you give me some help with the St. Louis running backs? I have Daryl Richardson and want to know if you think he has lost his starting job for good to Stacy? I am in a 12-team 10-player dynasty league and have been offered Stacy for Antonio Brown. With it being yardage plus TD scoring league and running backs being much harder to obtain do you think they have equal value going forward?
DAMON DUHON (BATON ROUGE, LA)
Zac Stacy has won the job. He’s run well the last few weeks, especially against Seattle, going for 134 yards. But running back is a volatile position. With Antonio Brown, you know what he is. He’s catching 80-plus balls, and he’ll do the same in 2014 and 2015. There’s the consistency there, and he’ll stay healthy. With Stacy, he’s a starting running back, but he might be a backup in 2014. These kind of guys come and go. He doesn’t have special size or speed. He’s running hard, but it’s a fungible position, and players there take a lot of punishment. When mulling this deal, keep in mind that Stacy injured his ankle on Monday night. He might not even play this week. But it’s my belief that he’s kind of established himself as their main running back. Once healthy, he’ll be back in that full-time featured role. Whether they bring in a more talented guy who can dislodge him in 2014 or 2015, that remains to be seen. If I had to guess, I would say that Stacy won’t be an opening day starter in 2015.
Question 5
I have an offer to trade Brees and Alshon Jeffery from my team for Cam Newton and A.J. Green. My team is currently 7-1 which is why I'm not super inclined to shake things up. Love Brees’ consistency, but A.J. would be an upgrade over Alshon for sure. Think I'm keeping status quo but what's the right call?
Drew Bankston (Tyler, TX)
Strictly off the numbers, the packages are similar. Brees is a little more than 2 points per game between than Newton, and Green is a little more than 2 before than Jeffery. This could be a deal where you look at your postseason. Your team is 7-1. You will be in the postseason. So the correct course could be to look carefully at Weeks 15-16 (or whatever ones you feel are most important). I know that in Week 16, I would love to have A.J. Green working against Minnesota’s secondary. And in Week 16, Newton should be as good or better than Brees (those teams go head-to-head that week in Charlotte).
Question 6
Your product has helped me to 6 league championships in 14 years however this year my squad is struggling at 3-4 in a standard 10 team league. I have been playing the match-ups mostly at QB with Vick and Dalton. I have a standing offer for Russell Wilson for Josh Gordon. I am high on Wilson moving forward however my remaining WR's would be Douglas, Garcon, Terrance Williams, Keenan Allen, Heyward-Bey and Boykin. Stand pat with my current QBs? Or make the deal for Wilson?
Chris Tkachuk (MERCHANTVILLE, NJ)
The way Dalton is playing, you probably want to just ride that horse. He keeps going over 300 yards, and he’s been putting the ball in the end zone. No touchdowns last night, but he threw at least 3 TDs in each of his three previous games. He’s definitely a more productive passer than Wilson. With Wilson, there will be some weeks where he runs for 40-60 yards (which is like 80-120 passing yards) but he’ll have plenty of games with only about 200 passing yards. That’s a conservative offense they run in Seattle. And you’re not getting him for free – Josh Gordon, that’s a heck of player. Capable of scoring from anywhere on the field. I posted the trivia question earlier this week, asking what’s the only franchise that’s never had a receiver reach 200 yards in a game? One of the reasons I wanted to get that one published is because Gordon is a guy who could snap that string at any time. While mulling this deal over, also note that Dalton, Vick and Wilson all have their bye in Week 12.
Question 7
My team this year is now looking to 2014, what players should I target in free agency or try to trade for that we have big years next year but flying under the radar this year? Do you think Toby Gerhart and Ben Tate will find starting gigs next year?
ERIC SCOLNICK (Redmond, WA)
I don’t think Gerhart has done enough that anybody would even consider bringing him in as a starter? He hasn’t played much with Minnesota, but he hasn’t done enough with his limited opportunities. Originally, he was a second-round draft pick. If NFL teams could wind back the clock, I don’t think he’d even be selected in the third. Tate, maybe. Foster has a big salary and has taken a beating over the years. It would be possible that at some point the Texans might try to go younger and cheaper at that position. Some other guys to possibly think about: TE Ladarius Green (San Diego); will Gates even be back next year? WR Markus Wheaton (Pittsburgh); just a shot-in-the-dark guy. Justin Hunter (Tennessee); definitely has talent – could just be starting his career slowly. Knile Davis (Kansas City); at some point, Jamaal Charles will get hurt. Brice Butler (Oakland); made a few really nice catches in the preseason. Keenan Allen (San Diego); should be their No. 1 wide receiver in 2014. David Wilson (Giants); neck issue, but still a remarkably talented back. Khiry Robinson (Saints); playing very well in spot duty right now, and Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas are both older guys. Christine Michael and Robert Turbin (Seattle); they look like starter-caliber tailbacks, and Marshawn Lynch is a high-contact runner who won’t last forever.
Question 8
I traded Rivers, Henne, M.Austin for Vick, Foles, James Jones. Already have A.Luck. Dropped Foles Picked up Locker. Thoughts?
William Torres (HIALEAH, FL)
Let’s skim off the fat. You traded Philip Rivers for James Jones. Those are the key guys. You had two quarterbacks, so it made sense to move one of them. Jones should be a really strong addition once he’s recovered from that knee injury. Randall Cobb and Jermichael Finley are hurt, so it’s really just a two-man receiving corps there – Nelson and Jones will be the big guys. So from that perspective, I like the deal. I just wonder if you traded the right quarterback. Luck gives you the 20ish rushing yards each week, which is cool. Rivers has two games left against Kansas City, which is a negative. But he’s flinging it around nicely right now. For this weekend, I’d rather have Rivers playing at Washington than Luck playing at Houston.
Question 9
I am in a league which has a mid season draft as the only time you can replace players. I drafted Brady and Vick as my QBs. The draft is tonite and Terrelle Pryor and Geno Smith are available along with Tannehill and Locker. The league only gives extra credit when 300 passing yards or 100 running yards are reached. I'm thinking of Pryor and dropping Vick. We play 17 weeks and use cumulative score to decide the winner. What think?
Norm Foisy (LAFAYETTE, CA)
I’d go with Tannehill. With the 300-100 format, you’re not going to get any bonuses from Pryor. He doesn’t pass enough to reach 300. He’s a great runner who’s gone over 100 rushing yards twice already, but I don’t think you can count on any more of those. Tannehill, I think, has a better chance of maybe giving you a 300-yard game, and I think he’ll throw a few more touchdowns. (We’re really just talking backups, here, though. It will be Brady who’s starting almost all of your games).
Question 10
A reader just commented on why Tampa would bring back Doug Martin when this year is already a lost cause. I realize every player is different and was on the losing end of a week 14, four-touchdown performance by MJD two years ago but take Arian Foster for example. If things continue to tank in Houston what are the trends in fantasy football for star caliber players to take more plays off? Thanks!
Adam Bjork (SAVAGE, MN)
I think as teams drop out of consideration for the playoffs, it becomes more likely that guys sit out. If Houston was 5-9, for example, and Arian Foster had a groin or hamstring injury, that might be more likely to simply shut him down and see what Ben Tate could do. And it’s not just the team but the player – some players in that situation might be more likely to choose to sit out. If Houston were 8-6 and Foster was in the same situation, I think he’d be more likely to risk an injury. But it’s early to be speculating about specific players sitting out or getting spelled more often. In the case of the Texans, a decisive win over the Colts on Sunday night might be just what they need to start turning their season around.
Question 11
This year I've regularly taken advantage of the podcasts and have gained a lot of insight. You almost always give fantastic analysis and advice ... except for the week I benched Antonio Brown because of the perceived superior talents and coverage ability of Charles Tillman. Antonio Brown lit it up like the Fourth of July, leaving a pile of points on the bench, and chalking up another loss to my record. (No hard feelings though, I keep coming back for more.) I'm struggling at quarterback. I was one of the last to draft a QB and ended up with Eli and Alex Smith. I was certain Eli was going to re-emerge as a stud QB with 2nd year WR and RB, Randle and Wilson respectively. Man was I wrong and My team's going down the drain. I claimed Jake Locker off of waivers this week and plan to ditch Alex Smith. However, I now have an opportunity to gain the services of Andrew Luck. A trade was proposed: Eddie Lacy for Andrew Luck. I also roster Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson, Danny Woodhead, and Bilal Powell. I believe Lacy will finish top-10 RB, Luck on the other hand, I'm not so sure, especially with losing Wayne. My question: Do you think Luck will provide a significant upgrade over Jake Locker and how great of a drop off will I experience at Rb if I committ to this trade?
MIKE RADAKER (CLEARFIELD, PA)
I wouldn’t go anywhere near that trade. Yes, Luck would help you at quarterback, the dropoff would be far more severe at tailback. Eddie Lacy isn’t a top-10 running back; he’s a top-5 guy. They’re feeding him the ball, and he’s grinding out the yards and touchdowns. If the guy wants to trade Luck for a running back, it should be for Chris Johnson. (And I’m not sure you should even do that one; Jamaal Charles isn’t playing next week, and you’d be able to plug in Johnson against the Jacksonville defense.)
Question 12
Looking ahead to Week 11 when the Cowboys are on a bye, I need a fill-in for Bryant. I currently have A. Johnson and A. Brown as my other two WRs. Due to injuries and bye weeks, someone in our league dropped James Jones just to be able to have two healthy bodies starting. In the latest redrafter using a custom scoring profile (.5 PPR and 2 bonus points for going over 100 yds), Brown and Jones are ranked 11th and 12th respectively with less than one point separating the two, so I could put a waiver claim in for Jones, but I am mainly looking at the week 11 matchup. Brown vs. DET or Jones @NYG. Do I stick with Brown or try to pick up Jones? Thanks.
Roy Sherman (COLUMBIA, TN)
Wow. Hard to believe that a receiver the caliber of James Jones is sitting there as a free agent. But you’re not in a great position to pick him up, if it means cutting loose a player like Andre Johnson or Antonio Brown. If you look at just Week 11, I suppose it doesn’t make sense to grab Jones. But if you expand the issue and consider the following weeks, then I think you may put Jones ahead of both of those guys. I see some notoriously soft secondaries on Green Bay’s schedule, so there will be weeks that Jones is better than both Johnson and Brown.