Ian Allan answers all (well, most) of your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Extended dance-mix version on the relative values of Matthew Stafford and Andrew Luck. Why Khiry Robinson could be a breakout running back in 2014. Dynasty value of young quarterbacks like EJ Manuel, Mike Glennon and Case Keenum.
Question 1
My man! Long time fanatic subscriber. Your rankings confused me this week at the QB position. In your write up you suggest correctly (in my opinion) that the Bears/Lions will be a shoot out but you rank Stafford #12 and then you say Colts will be running the ball often and Luck will have a total 2 TDS but rank him #5. I am in PPR league and own both think it is tough to not start Stafford even in Chicago over Luck.
STEPHEN HAMMOND (Charleston, SC)
A fair observation. I noticed the same thing myself. With these games, I do the projections separately. I look at the Bears-Lions and put down the numbers. That’s completely separate from looking at the Colts-Rams. Then at the end, you look at the numbers and see how the guys compare. The difference between Luck and Stafford, I think, is the rushing production. Stafford isn’t a factor as a runner – 3 yards per game – while Luck is running for 23 yards per game. In fantasy football math, 20 rushing yards equates to a 40-yard head start in passing. And Luck has run for 3 TDs. While I didn’t spend a lot of time spelling it out on paper, it also bugged me that Stafford didn’t play that well in the earlier Chicago game. Yes, the Lions put up 40 points in that game, but Stafford went only 23 of 35 for 242 yards, with 1 TD and 1 interception. I’m aware he’s averaging 327 passing yards per game, but he’s thrown for only 242, 263 and 272 in his last three against the Bears, with 1, 3 and 1 TDs. He’s working with really just one big-time receiver. So while you can look at the Detroit offense, which is playing great, and you look at the Chicago defense, which is really struggling right now, when it came down to putting pen to paper, I was thinking Stafford more likely would wind up stuck down in the range of 270-280 passing yards, which puts him behind Luck. But I may be overanalyzing it. I have no problem with Stafford if that’s the way you want to go.
Question 2
I'm in a Keeper League, we keep six from a 15-man roster. But we also have a 4-man Taxi Squad (rookies only, but you can keep them on the Taxi for as long as you want). Who looks better for next season and beyond, TE Fauria or TE Ertz? In the same format, is RB Khiry Robinson a possible replacement for Sproles or Thomas next season? I'm wondering if I should add him to my roster. Our rosters "freeze" this week for the rest of the year.
Dennis Thomas (ROYAL OAKS, CA)
I’ll go Fauria over Ertz. I like the way the Lions (at times) have used Fauria as a red zone option. Ertz should catch more passes. And I like the idea of adding Khiry Robinson. He’s a good player, and I could see him becoming one of their main cogs next season. Sproles is 30, and Thomas will be 29 in December. Thomas has had a lot of injury issues. The Saints also have Mark Ingram, of course, but I think Robinson fits their offense better. He’s faster, and he’s a better receiver. Robinson hasn’t caught any passes in the regular season, but he had 11 receptions back in August.
Question 3
Wanting to pick up Andre Brown in a ppr league. I've been holding onto both Doug Martin and Percy Harvin. Which to drop for Brown?
Marco Tavares (BILLERICA, MA)
I’d take Brown before either of those guys without a second thought – I’d take him before both of those guys combined. But you’re asking which one to dump. The Bucs haven’t put Martin on injured reserve, so apparently they have some belief he can return. I’m skeptical. I don't think he'll play again this year. I don’t think Harvin has practiced in two weeks, so it’s looking like there was some kind of setback with his hip. Harvin definitely isn’t playing this week. I would be surprised if he’s on the field in Week 11 for his first game against his former team. I think you’re probably looking at Week 13, following their bye. You’re not going to just throw him into the fray that week. Then, he’ll have caught about 3 balls for 30 yards, so are you going to use him in Week 14 at San Francisco? Very nominal value for either of those guys, I think.
Question 4
I have to start 3 WR's. I have Keenan Allen, DeSean Jackson, Mike Wallace and Victor Cruz as my top 4. I know I am going with Cruz and Jackson. I am debating between Allen and Wallace as my third WR. It seems Wallace struggles catching passes and Rivers seems to find Allen alot . Its hard to predict games but my thought is San Diego-Denver will be a high scoring game.
Jay Monahan (CINCINNATI, OH)
Keenan Allen has averaged 99 yards in his last five games, with 3 TDs. Wallace has averaged 66 yards in his last five, with no scores. Why is this a discussion?
Question 5
Which QB do you like more in 2014: EJ Manuel, Mike Glennon, or Case Keenum?
ERIC SCOLNICK (Redmond, WA)
I like Manuel. I think he’s the real deal, and I like what they’re doing on offense there. Keenum has gotten off to a nice start in Houston, but I’m not confident he can keep it up. I want to see what happens when defenses start figuring him out a little bit.
Question 6
I'm sitting at 5-4 in my more important PPR league. I drafted Matt Ryan based on his past consistency. I'm extremely concerned about him now due to the injuries to his wide receivers and poor offensive line play. I currently have Pryor as a backup but could also pick up Foles or Keenum. Factoring in their remaining schedules, how would you rank these 3 guys?
Mike Koffski (CHICAGO, IL)
You have Ryan, so I’d be looking for upside. Which one of these guys is maybe going to get on a hot streak and really light it up? I think it’s Foles-Keenum-Pryor. Pryor is in the discussion with those guys, but I think he’s definitely No. 3. If you didn’t have Ryan, then I think the debate between Foles and Keenum becomes more contested. In my opinion, it’s more likely that we’ll see Philadelphia go back to Michael Vick than that the Texans will start Matt Schaub again.
Question 7
Have Romo on a bye in week 11 and was wondering which match up you like better. Roethlisberger at home vs Detroit or Case Keenum at home vs Oakland?
JOHN RUPPE (FORT MYERS, FL)
I think they’ll be in the same ballpark. Roethlisberger is the more proven, veteran guy, and he’s been playing pretty well – lots of yards. With Keenum, he’s had the hot hand and will give you some mobility – he might run for 20 yards. The Texans go against an Oakland defense that allowed 7 TD passes on Sunday, but it allowed only 10 in its previous seven games combined. I’ll give a slight edge to Keenum.
Question 8
In 2014 who would you rather have: Justin Blackmon or Michael Crabtree? Assuming Blackman is allowed to play in 2014.
ERIC SCOLNICK (Redmond, WA)
I think they both look good. Crabtree was a top-10 receiver in the second half of last year. Blackmon had the two monster games a month ago – 14 catches at Denver. They’ll probably both be among the first 20 receivers selected next August. I’ll put Blackmon slightly higher for now, but not a lot of difference there.
Question 9
Continuing your thread on Thursday Night games (less scoring, especially during divisional games et al) have you looked at rushing versus passing numbers in Thursday Night games against Sunday/Monday games? Seems to me, passing might be more prevalent in the short week since rushing is more physical, both for O-Lineman and RBs. I imagine that short week between games is physically brutal for the players.
BRYAN BERTSCH (MINNEAPOLIS, MN)
Sounds logical to me. The theory getting thrown around was that teams would need to run more on Thursday games because of the shortened prep time, but that didn’t really come out in the numbers when I looked at it.
Question 10
Is there precedent for teams benching a star player when the season is lost? I'm thinking Buccaneers (Doug Martin), Vikings (Adrian Peterson), Jaquars (MJD), Falcons (Ryan, White.) I know teams are supposed to play to win every game, but as a fan I would be really upset to see a franchise player get hurt in a meaningless contest. Plus I'd want to see more playing time for third-stringers to evaluate their talent.
John Brown ()
I think where a team is situated can affect those decisions. Mostly for the last game or two. If a player is banged up, a lesser team is more likely to simply shut him down. If Peterson has a tight hamstring in Week 17, for example, maybe the Vikings either hold him out or limit him to 15 touches. If they’re in the thick of the playoff hunt, then they’re more likely to feed him the ball and hope he can gut it out. As far as healthy players getting shut down before December, however, I can’t recall that happening. I don’t think there’s any way the Falcons will opt to leave Matt Ryan in street clothes simply because they’re not making the playoffs.
Question 11
At 7-2, I feel very good about my (your) team. Several weeks ago, Joique Bell was a must-have handcuff. Now I am very close to cutting him due to a stacked bench but in need of a QB for this week (Brady on bye/Chicago a question mark). My question is can you predict if Reggie Bush will get hurt? No, I am kidding, of course, but with Andre Ellington, Andre Brown, Shane Vereen, and Chris Ivory, combined with Jamaal Charles and R. Bush as my starters, how many RBs do I need? I will check the re-drafter on Tuesday to get more analysis.
Barret Glasnapp (UNDERWOOD, IA)
Looks like you’ve got it scoped out properly. Bell is a good handcuff, but with your depth, you just don’t have room for him. The one possible argument would be that if Reggie Bush were to get hurt, Joique Bell could start for you. But with Bush, Charles, Vereen and the others, Chris Ivory won’t start any games for your team.