Ian Allan anwers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: How much does adverse weather affect performance of players? With Drew Brees facing the league's best defense, is it time to turn to lesser options in better situations? And how does one handle an owner who's a douchebag?
Question 1
Thanks for the great answers to my earlier questions on West Coast teams going east, and defensive TD trends. My latest question is, what does the data show for dome players in outdoors games (Brees, Ryan, Peterson, Stafford, etc.)? And, do any cold-weather teams' players really play well in December? Big Ben? Brady?
peter chen (STANFORD, CA)
I don’t have the data set up where I can look at it quite the way I want. I cannot, for example, snap my fingers and say, “show me how Matt Ryan has performed in games where the temperature is under 30 degrees”. So on individual players, we’re left with impressions. We know that poor weather doesn’t always hinder players or favor defenses. Tom Brady, for example, threw 6 TD passes in a snow game against the the Titans. And I remember a poor weather game at the end of the 2011 season, when Matthew Stafford and Matt Flynn combined for 1,000 passing yards and 11 TDs. But I can look at overall data which indicates weather tends to hinder passing games. And at the same time, that weather tends to FAVOR running the ball. That makes sense, logically. If wind and weather make it hard to put the ball in the air, it’s only reasonable to surmise that teams would rely more on the run. For this study, I looked at all regular-season games of the last 10 years. So 32 teams playing 16 games each – over 5,000 games. Those teams, in their first 12 games of the season averaged 230 passing yards and 1.37 TD passes per game (on pace to finish the year with 21.9 TD passes). The production is pretty constant in each of the first 12 weeks of the season. Then, the four least productive weeks are the last four. (OK, slight exaggeration. The opening day games come in just a little bit behind one of those weeks). Anyway, in those final four weeks, passing yards are down 10 yards per game, and passing touchdowns are down just slightly, from 1.37 to 1.35. But keep in mind, this is for all games, and probably two thirds of those games are played inside domes or in regular-type weather conditions. So it’s a quarter or a third of the games (the poor weather games) that are driving the change. So it’s probably more like a 30-40 yard per game difference, and maybe closer to 10 percent in TD passes. The larger, more telling differences are with the ground. For the first 12 games of the season, teams average 114 rushing yards and .80 rushing touchdowns per game. But the best four weeks of the season are the last four. In that span, teams average 120 yards and .87 TDs. About 6 yards per game and almost a 10 percent increase in touchdowns is huge, when you consider that only a portion of games are played in poor weather. So we may be seeing something more like a 25-30 yard per game increase, with a 40-plus percent increase in rushing touchdowns. I will try to put some of this information in a more graphically pleasing format and post it on the Facebook page. Some might argue that all of the change isn’t due to weather. You can have the case where a team has simply given up, or is down to a third-string guy at quarterback. And timing with blocking schemes has a role with running the ball. Note that the worst week (by far) for running the ball is Week 1 – and that’s yards (3 yards lower than any other week) and touchdowns (.71 per game, while only one other week is lower than .77). But my belief is that this is a weather-related deal, and that we should all but adjusting our fantasy lineups accordingly. (Which is why we should all be thinking about DeMarco Murray, Matt Forte, Montee Ball and Knowshon Moreno this week).
Question 2
Playoff time...I have gotten here with Drew Brees at the helm, but he faces the #1 QB defense this week. I can plug in McCown against the #31 QB defense. Brees was not good against Sea last week, but he is much better at home, plus he has historically played Carolina very well at home. Has Carolina's D taken the step to truly become an elite D against the past or will Brees still be able to exploit them?
Chris Thompson (LOS ANGELES, CA)
In 1932, for the first playoff game in NFL history, it was so cold in Chicago they decided to move that game indoors. They played it on an 80-yard field inside Chicago Stadium (the same building where the Bulls were winning NBA championships about 60 years later). If they go that route again, then I would start McCown. But right now, my expectation is they’ll be playing outdoors, and the forecast indicates it will be about 10-15 degrees, with winds up to 17 mph. With that kind of weather on tap, I think the correct move is to go with Brees.
Question 3
I'm in a league where the playoffs are weeks 15-17 and I have Drew Brees. I’m guaranteed a bye in week 15 and am looking at weeks 16 and 17. Brees gets Tampa at home in week 17, but I have to win week 16 where he's on the road against Carolina. After his dismal performance Monday on the road I’m really thinking about looking elsewhere for a plug in that week. I’m not a dance with who brought you guy I just want the best situation for the most possible points and I don't think it's Brees that week. I have my thoughts, but what QB's do you like based on math Ian.
JOHN RUPPE (FORT MYERS, FL)
You need not decide today. Let’s see how Brees does on Sunday night against that defense. That might change your thinking on whether he’s worth using in Week 16. Carolina has been great on defense, but it hasn’t been quite as strong against the pass. I will concede that nobody all year has thrown 2 TDs against them. So right now, I will concede it’s unlikely Brees tossed 3 TDs in that game. But Russell Wilson, EJ Manuel, Tom Brady and Ryan Tannehill have all thrown for more than 295 yards. Mike Glennon passed for 275. So let’s see what transpires on Sunday before we rush to any decisions. Right now, I think the following quarterbacks are in the mix to potentially be ranked higher than Brees in Week 16: Cam Newton (vs. New Orleans), Jay Cutler (at Philadelphia), Andy Dalton (vs. Minnesota), Tony Romo (at Washington), Peyton Manning (at Houston), Matthew Stafford (vs. Giants), Aaron Rodgers (vs. Pittsburgh), Tom Brady (at Baltimore), Nick Foles (vs. Chicago), Ben Roethlisberger (at Green Bay), Philip Rivers (vs. Oakland), Colin Kaepernick (vs. Atlanta), Russell Wilson (vs. Arizona) and Robert Griffin III (vs. Dallas).
Question 4
I'm a commissioner of a 12-team keeper league and I need help on a ruling. We have Team "A" that traded away his 2014 future first-round rookie draft pick to Team "B" for a bye week replacement player (Jason Campbell). Well after Team A was eliminated from playoff contention, he announced he's not coming back next year. So as commissioner, I now have to find another person to take over Team "A" and tell them the bad news that they don't have a first-round pick. That may be a deal breaker on my ability to get someone to take over a bad team that also handcuffed its ability to rebuild. Do I reverse the trade since Team A traded away a future asset it technically never owned and upset Team B? Or let it slide and have difficulties filling Team A's spot? How do I avoid this in the future? Any suggestions would be much appreciated.
Cody Hager (ALOHA, OR)
What happened when this trade occurred? Was there an outrage? Were owners up in arms? If I were in that league, I’d be at the head of the line, saying, “What the heck? Why are you trading away a first-round draft pick for Jason Campbell?” Or were the owners kind of accepting of the deal? If the deal was accepted (via no comments or protest), that kind of changes things, doesn’t it? However one-sided, it kind of validates the deal. Going forward, maybe add a rule that if you’re trading picks from future years, their not valid until the entry fee for that year is paid. Or maybe just not allow trading future draft picks. To work out of this mess, maybe a compromise type deal would work best. Return the first-round pick to the new owner of Team A. For Team B, give them an extra draft choice at the end of the fourth round (which is very nice compensation for a journeyman quarterback who’s hardly even worth being on a roster).
Question 5
I'm still shaking my head about how you had Cruz rated so low against Washington on prime time. Having Cooper in the top 10 and relegating Cruz to a low-end flex was a bit of an exaggeration. Washington’s pass defense is abysmal and Cruz has had success against them. It's a prime time game and Cruz needs to earn those paychecks. He'll get the targets. Now that Cooper clocked in his whopping 48 yards, my Monday morning quarterbacking is at an all-time high. btw, I took your advice, benched Cruz for Cooper, and most likely lost my first-round bye. I’m bitter ... very, very bitter.
Sherif Elmazi (Hong Kong)
C’mon, bro. We’re talking about the Victor Cruz who’s caught 1 TD in his last 11 games, right? In his last 10 games, he’s averaged 69 yards. On the other hand, we have a receiver who’s gone for at least 88 yards in five of the six games he’s played with Nick Foles at quarterback, with 7 TDs in those games. I don’t care how it turned out. Cooper was the correct play there.
Question 6
Just wondering when was the last time you saw the penalty "illegally advancing the runner" called. When I was a kid, Pop-Tart boxes had football cards with team logos and different penalty calls on the back. The referee holds his hands out to the sides, and motions forward. I ask, because I have seen many plays this year where players try to "move the pile" forward, especially at the goal line or in short yardage, and wonder why I haven't seen that penalty called in decades. Know what I mean?
JOHN MACHO (ELKO NEW MRKT, MN)
I watched the football documentary UNDEFEATED Wednesday night, the Academy-award winning documentary about the Manassas High School (Memphis) football team in 2009. Awesome movie. Can’t believe how well the volunteer coach, Bill Courtney, interacted with and managed his players. Anybody coaching any sport can probably pick up some ideas from this movie. They’ve got one big 300-pound tackle who goes on to play college ball, O.C. Brown, and in one scene, he doesn’t push but PULLS the pile to move his running back forward. No call. Most famously, there was the “Bush Push” play to lift Southern Cal over Notre Dame a few years back. And Cam Newton revealed during a session with Jon Gruden that the fullback’s job at Auburn was to help push him into the end zone on those sneaks – but not to make it too obvious. For whatever reason, they’re not calling that anymore. Fine with me. I don’t see why it should be illegal anyway.
Question 7
I have Luck and Tannehill in a 16-team PPR. Lately, Luck has been disappointing while Tannehill seems to be getting better. I’m in the playoffs, but I’m a low seed and need to get past the #1 team in our league this week to move on to the next bracket. Should I take a flyer on Tannehill and start him over Luck in week 14?
William Barnard (SEATTLE, WA)
I would prefer not to start either one of those guys. But if that’s where we’re at, I’ll go with Luck. He’s definitely the more productive runner. Tannehill is facing the Pittsburgh defense that’s been pretty good. Other than the two meltdown games against Brady and Stafford, it’s allowing only 205 yards per game. (And the Stafford game was really only a partial meltdown – they kept him under control in the second half of that one).
Question 8
what time will index come out
Jay Gelman (AMBLER, PA)
We’re going on Wednesday’s right now. Going forward, you’ll get stuff between noon and 1 p.m. Eastern time each Wednesday, then the supplement/update at about 8 p.m. on Fridays. With so few games left, there is no Tuesday product in December. Also note that Christmas this year is on a Wednesday. On that week (which is Week 17) the initial preview will go out one day later (on Thursday between noon and 1 p.m.)
Question 9
First of all let me thank you for your insight every week. Fantasy Index has been the cornerstone of my fantasy football experience for over a decade now and you never disappoint. I picked up Jamaal Charles and Trent Richardson in the early rounds this year and managed to waiver Richardson for Rashad Jennings. But I’m concerned right now about Wes Welker's performance as of late. My WR core consists Welker, Antonio Brown, Riley Cooper and I’m hoping to add Michael Floyd this week while I keep Jarrett Boykin deep in my bench. I also have Peyton Manning as my QB, and as you may imagine, the Manning/Welker tandem served me well during the first half of the season. My question is, should I keep playing Welker over the likes of Boykin (and Floyd if I manage to get my hands on him) or should I bench him? I’m currently in a hard-fought first round playoff match but I need to optimize my team for the coming struggle.
Enrique Bobonis (San Juan, PR)
I don’t have any problem with Wes Welker. He’s still the same guy he was earlier in the year. He just hasn’t happened to have his name bubble to the top of game plan. Prior to their last game, you might have reasoned Eric Decker to your bench. He hadn’t scored in four straight games, and he averaged only 43 yards in those games. Decker, of course, went for 174 yards and 4 TDs at Kansas City. Welker is that kind of a player. He hasn’t scored four weeks in a row, but he caught 9 TDs in the first eight weeks of the season. That said, I’ve got Floyd higher on my board this week. He’s been playing really well, going for 99-plus yards three weeks in a row, with 2 TDs. Weather definitely favors Arizona. It will be playing inside a dome, while the forecast indicates the high in Denver will be 16 degrees.
Question 10
Looking at weeks 15 & 16 what sleeper TEs look to have great match ups? Looking I case Jordan Reed can't go.
Marco Tavares (BILLERICA, MA)
I don’t expect Reed will have any problem being ready for Week 15. Certainly you’ll want him in against Atlanta for that game. If you’re looking for a fill-in, you could consider some of the defenses that have consistently been burned by that position. Arizona has allowed 14 TD passes to tight ends. Three teams have allowed 9 TDs to tight ends: Miami, Minnesota and Washington. And three teams have allowed 8: Giants, Browns and Falcons.
Question 11
What teams have WR friendly matchups in the last four weeks of the season? Our league is total points and runs through week 17 so that week is still important to us. Thanks.
Rick Cwik (LEMONT, IL)
I posted a strength-of-schedule deal on the website yesterday. Looked at what each defense has allowed in its first 12 games, then cross-referenced that against the schedules. Using that system, the Eagles, Raiders, Bears and Cowboys (in that order) project to play the easiest schedules against the pass going forward. The Cardinals, Jaguars, Jets and Saints project to play the hardest schedules.
Question 12
Well, I overcame my first 3 picks of Rice, Johnson and Wilson and squeaked into the playoffs. Andre Brown, Vereen and Foles helped. I wanted to let you know about our Super playoff format and wanted to know what you thought. At the end of our regular season, you have the ability to keep any players and carry them all the way to the Super Bowl. We are in a 10-team league and last year 6 teams went on. So we took the other four teams and made them available along with the free agents. I kept up with the draft by group email. What makes it fun is you have to pick the players that will play in the most games, so the wild card teams may be good for some crucial points even if they don't get to the Super Bowl. The points are cumulative and last year my wife won, since she was loaded with Ravens. BTW, my wife and I are the only ones with the Index and have won the league four of the last five years. The Great Wife should win the high points money this year.
Bob Phipps (ORLANDO, FL)
I like postseason fantasy. It’s fun. Nice to keep it going. But I want to keep it separate from the regular fantasy league. My preference is to start from scratch after Week 17. Otherwise you can run into the deal where somebody has happened to draft too many of the key postseason players. And I don’t want to add the dimension into the regular draft (back in August) of trying to factor in who might be good in the NFL playoffs.