The NFL is considering getting rid of extra points after touchdowns. Ian Allan explores the fantasy ramifications.
Roger Goodell says the NFL is thinking about getting rid of the extra point. He sat down for an interview yesterday with Rich Eisen.
Certainly, it’s an area that needs to be addressed. There should have been some kind of change about 10 years ago. Extra points are too easy.
Goodell notes that there were only 5 misses out of about 1,200 extra point attempts this year, which translates to about 99.6 percent. One of the misses was in the snow game between Philadelphia and Detroit.
Remarkably, the success would go down if teams were required to have their quarterback (with no defense or blockers on the field) throw a 15-yard completion to a receiver standing in the end zone.
Goodell’s proposal is to give teams the option of either taking 1 free point, or attempting a 2-point conversion.
If they go the free point route, that might cause huge changes in fantasy leagues, depending upon how it’s drawn up. If they decide to say that touchdowns are now worth 7 points, that might cause fantasy leagues to alter the way they’re scored. They might decide that touchdowns are now worth 7 points (or 6-7 points, depending on decision of NFL teams). The standard might become to make touchdowns worth 7 points and TD passes worth 5 points, rather than the current 6-4 alignment.
For kickers, I started poking around with the numbers, and I don’t think it’s going to be a big deal. Under the current NFL rules, Stephen Gostkowski led kickers with 158 points. The next 10 kickers, on average, finished 19.2 points back. If extra points were wiped away, Gostkowski would have scored 114 points. The next 10 kickers in that format would have, on average, finished 14.7 points back. Not a huge difference.
If you want to include more kickers in study, you can look instead at the top 20. With Gostkowski’s 158, the rest of the top 20 kickers (again, on average) would have finished 28.6 points backs.
With field goals only, Gostkowski’s at 114 points, and the rest of the top 20 is on average 25.1 points back.
With fantasy football, relative difference between players is the key, and not a huge difference there.
For scouting purposes, ditching the extra points would make things harder on draft day. Right now, it’s always comforting to fall back on a kicker playing for a great offense. Team score points. Kicker score points. Krog win fantasy game.
But if you remove the extra point safety net, some of these offenses that consistently put the ball in the end zone would become frustrating for fantasy purproses – too many games where they score 28 and 35 points (meaning nothing for their kicker). We’ve seen that kind of offense in recent years, especially with the Saints, Patriots and Peyton Manning’s offenses.
Matt Prater would have been that guy in 2013. In traditional scoring, he knocked in 150 points – 2nd-best in the league. But Prater kicked only 25 field goals, which tied for 18th among kickers.
| KICKERS -- CURRENT SCORING | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Kicker | Points | Back |
| 1. | Stephen Gostkowski | 158 | -- |
| 2. | Matt Prater | 150 | 8 |
| 3. | Nick Novak | 144 | 14 |
| 4. | Steven Hauschka | 143 | 15 |
| 5. | Mason Crosby | 141 | 17 |
| 6. | Justin Tucker | 140 | 18 |
| 7. | Phil Dawson | 140 | 18 |
| 8. | Adam Vinatieri | 139 | 19 |
| 9. | Dan Carpenter | 131 | 27 |
| 10. | Dan Bailey | 131 | 27 |
| 11. | Shaun Suisham | 129 | 29 |
| 12. | Jay Feely | 127 | 31 |
| 13. | Nick Folk | 126 | 32 |
| 14. | Robbie Gould | 123 | 35 |
| 15. | Blair Walsh | 121 | 37 |
| 16. | Ryan Succop | 118 | 40 |
| 17. | Rob Bironas | 116 | 42 |
| 18. | Graham Gano | 114 | 44 |
| 19. | Alex Henery | 114 | 44 |
| 20. | Greg Zuerlein | 112 | 46 |
| 21. | Caleb Sturgis | 111 | 47 |
| 22. | Matt Bryant | 111 | 47 |
| 23. | Garrett Hartley | 107 | 51 |
| 24. | Mike Nugent | 106 | 52 |
| 25. | Randy Bullock | 104 | 54 |
And here’s how kicker scoring would have looked if extra points were eliminated.
| KICKERS -- WITHOUT EXTRA POINTS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Kicker | Points | Back |
| 1. | Stephen Gostkowski | 114 | -- |
| 2. | Justin Tucker | 114 | -- |
| 3. | Adam Vinatieri | 105 | 9 |
| 4. | Nick Novak | 102 | 12 |
| 5. | Steven Hauschka | 99 | 15 |
| 6. | Nick Folk | 99 | 15 |
| 7. | Mason Crosby | 99 | 15 |
| 8. | Dan Carpenter | 99 | 15 |
| 9. | Phil Dawson | 96 | 18 |
| 10. | Shaun Suisham | 90 | 24 |
| 11. | Jay Feely | 90 | 24 |
| 12. | Dan Bailey | 84 | 30 |
| 13. | Robbie Gould | 78 | 36 |
| 14. | Randy Bullock | 78 | 36 |
| 15. | Greg Zuerlein | 78 | 36 |
| 16. | Caleb Sturgis | 78 | 36 |
| 17. | Blair Walsh | 78 | 36 |
| 18. | Rob Bironas | 75 | 39 |
| 19. | Matt Prater | 75 | 39 |
| 20. | Matt Bryant | 72 | 42 |
| 21. | Graham Gano | 72 | 42 |
| 22. | Rian Lindell | 69 | 45 |
| 23. | Josh Scobee | 69 | 45 |
| 24. | Josh Brown | 69 | 45 |
| 25. | Alex Henery | 69 | 45 |
--Ian Allan