Denver's offense is not only the best, but it's one of the best ever. And Seattle's defense is the same, making for an extra intriguing Super Bowl. Ian Allan explains.
Is this the ultimate offense vs. defense matchup? I’m in Seattle, and will try not to avoid getting caught up in the hype too much, but it looks like it is.
Denver has a great offense. Seattle has a great defense. And when I look at the numbers, it grades out as the first-ever Super Bowl between what’s arguably one of the top-10 offenses of the last 30 years against one of the top-10 defenses of the last 30 years.
For this kind of debate, let’s try to set aside opinion and rely more on the numbers.
Let’s look only at the modern era. And I will define that as 1978 on, since in that year they expanded to a 16-game season and made a bunch of rules changes to open up the passing game. So I am leaving the Packers of the 60s out of the discussion, and I don’t want to discuss the Dolphins or Steelers teams of early ‘70s. The game was too different then.
And even in the ‘80s and ‘90s, the game has evolved and changed.
So for each team, to account for the game being different, I looked at how it performed relative to the other teams in that season.
By that measure, the 2000 Baltimore Ravens had the best defense of this modern era. They allowed only 10.3 points per game – less than half of the league average.
And the 2007 Patriots had the best offense. The 2013 Broncos scored a few more points, but it’s easier to score now. New England scored 70 percent more points than the league average in that big season. The Broncos scored only 62 percent more than the average this year. They actually come in at No. 4, behind the 1998 Vikings and 2000 Greatest Show on Turf.
But looking at both charts, I see the 8th-best defense of the 1978-2013 time period going against the 4th-best offense.
So sign me up. I find this to be one of the more intriguing Super Bowl matchups.
Of the top 20 defenses, by the way, seven others made it to the Super Bowl. They went 6-1 in those games. In the charts below, I have Super Bowl winning teams tagged with two black dots. I have Super Bowl losing teams tagged with one dot.
Of the top 20 offenses, nine others made it to the Super Bowl. But they went only 4-5 in those games. The five losing offenses all failed to put up the kind of yards and points they did in the regular season. (All five of those losing high-powered offenses, by the way, scored under 20 points in their losing Super Bowls.)
I’m not making a forecast on this game yet. I want to see the weather forecast. If the conditions are going to be lousy, I definitely will be selecting the Seahawks.
| BEST OFFENSES (16 game season) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Points | Avg | Pct |
| 2007 | •New England Patriots | 36.8 | 21.7 | 169.7% |
| 1998 | Minnesota Vikings | 34.8 | 21.3 | 163.3% |
| 2000 | St. Louis Rams | 33.8 | 20.7 | 163.3% |
| 2013 | Denver Broncos | 37.9 | 23.4 | 161.8% |
| 1991 | ••Washington | 30.3 | 19.0 | 159.7% |
| 1993 | San Francisco 49ers | 29.6 | 18.7 | 158.1% |
| 1999 | ••St. Louis Rams | 32.9 | 20.8 | 157.9% |
| 2011 | Green Bay Packers | 35.0 | 22.2 | 157.8% |
| 1994 | ••San Francisco 49ers | 31.6 | 20.3 | 155.8% |
| 2001 | •St. Louis Rams | 31.4 | 20.2 | 155.6% |
| 1983 | •Washington Redskins | 33.8 | 21.8 | 154.9% |
| 2011 | New Orleans Saints | 34.2 | 22.2 | 154.1% |
| 2012 | New England Patriots | 34.8 | 22.8 | 153.0% |
| 2004 | Indianapolis Colts | 32.6 | 21.5 | 151.9% |
| 1984 | •Miami Dolphins | 32.1 | 21.2 | 151.2% |
| 1991 | •Buffalo Bills | 28.6 | 19.0 | 150.8% |
| 2006 | San Diego Chargers | 30.8 | 20.7 | 148.9% |
| 2009 | New Orleans Saints | 31.9 | 21.5 | 148.5% |
| 1998 | ••Denver Broncos | 31.3 | 21.3 | 147.1% |
| BEST DEFENSES (16 game season) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Points | Avg | Pct |
| 2000 | ••Baltimore Ravens | 10.3 | 20.7 | 49.9% |
| 2002 | ••Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 12.3 | 21.7 | 56.5% |
| 1986 | Chicago Bears | 11.7 | 20.5 | 57.0% |
| 1985 | ••Chicago Bears | 12.4 | 21.5 | 57.5% |
| 2000 | Tennessee Titans | 11.9 | 20.7 | 57.7% |
| 2006 | Baltimore Ravens | 12.6 | 20.7 | 60.8% |
| 2005 | Chicago Bears | 12.6 | 20.6 | 61.2% |
| 2013 | Seattle Seahawks | 14.4 | 23.4 | 61.7% |
| 2001 | Chicago Bears | 12.7 | 20.2 | 62.8% |
| 1994 | Cleveland Browns | 12.8 | 20.3 | 62.9% |
| 2008 | ••Pittsburgh Steelers | 13.9 | 22.0 | 63.3% |
| 2011 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 14.2 | 22.2 | 64.0% |
| 1996 | ••Green Bay Packers | 13.1 | 20.4 | 64.3% |
| 2001 | Philadelphia Eagles | 13.0 | 20.2 | 64.3% |
| 2013 | Carolina Panthers | 15.1 | 23.4 | 64.3% |
| 2011 | San Francisco 49ers | 14.3 | 22.2 | 64.5% |
| 1999 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 13.6 | 20.8 | 65.2% |
| 1990 | ••New York Giants | 13.2 | 20.1 | 65.5% |
| 2001 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 13.3 | 20.2 | 65.6% |
| 2010 | •Pittsburgh Steelers | 14.5 | 22.0 | 65.8% |
-- Ian Allan