The Bucs have hired Lovie Smith to be their new head coach, and that should be a boon to their defense. Certainly in fantasy terms, given that Smith has a very nice track record of overseeing a top fantasy defense.
After beginning his NFL coaching tenure as a linebackers coach under Tony Dungy (with Tampa Bay from 1996-2000), Smith landed a defensive coordinator job with the Rams. In three seasons there, St. Louis had a top 10 fantasy defense twice (using a scoring system that awards 1 point for sacks, 2 points for turnovers, and 6 points for defensive and special teams touchdowns).
Smith then was hired by the Bears as their head coach in 2004. Over the next five seasons, Chicago ranked 6th, 2nd, 1st, 2nd and 6th in fantasy defense. Just once in the last 10 years (2009, when they finished 14th) have they finished lower than 9th in fantasy defense.
That performance under Smith helped them finish as the top fantasy defense over the last decade (last year, with Smith gone, Chicago finished 8th).
Can we expect similar success with Smith running the show in Tampa Bay? Things can't get much worse. The Bucs have finished higher than 14th in fantasy defense only twice in the last 10 years. In terms of overall performance over the past decade, the Bucs have ranked just 17th -- not a defense you'd want any part of in fantasy leagues.
The first table below shows how fantasy defenses have performed, on average, over the last 10 years. The one below that shows the last five years, for those who'd just as soon disregard numbers compiled before most of the league's current players were even in the league. Either way, no one has been better than Chicago.
| FANTASY DEFENSE PERFORMANCE, 2004-2013 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | FF Pts | ||
| Chicago | 9.2 | ||
| New England | 8.0 | ||
| Baltimore | 8.0 | ||
| Arizona | 7.8 | ||
| Green Bay | 7.8 | ||
| Seattle | 7.6 | ||
| Buffalo | 7.6 | ||
| Minnesota | 7.5 | ||
| NY Giants | 7.4 | ||
| San Diego | 7.3 | ||
| Tennessee | 7.3 | ||
| Cincinnati | 7.3 | ||
| Philadelphia | 7.2 | ||
| NY Jets | 7.2 | ||
| Pittsburgh | 7.0 | ||
| Carolina | 7.0 | ||
| Tampa Bay | 7.0 | ||
| Dallas | 6.9 | ||
| Detroit | 6.9 | ||
| San Francisco | 6.9 | ||
| Indianapolis | 6.8 | ||
| Atlanta | 6.7 | ||
| Denver | 6.7 | ||
| Kansas City | 6.6 | ||
| St. Louis | 6.5 | ||
| New Orleans | 6.5 | ||
| Miami | 6.4 | ||
| Cleveland | 6.3 | ||
| Houston | 6.2 | ||
| Oakland | 6.0 | ||
| Washington | 5.9 | ||
| Jacksonville | 5.7 | ||
| FANTASY DEFENSE PERFORMANCE, 2009-2013 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | FF Pts | ||
| Chicago | 9.1 | ||
| New England | 8.7 | ||
| Green Bay | 8.3 | ||
| Arizona | 7.9 | ||
| NY Jets | 7.5 | ||
| San Francisco | 7.5 | ||
| Baltimore | 7.5 | ||
| Seattle | 7.4 | ||
| NY Giants | 7.3 | ||
| San Diego | 7.3 | ||
| Philadelphia | 7.3 | ||
| Tennessee | 7.2 | ||
| New Orleans | 7.1 | ||
| Cincinnati | 7.1 | ||
| Buffalo | 7.1 | ||
| Denver | 7.0 | ||
| Minnesota | 7.0 | ||
| Detroit | 6.9 | ||
| Atlanta | 6.8 | ||
| Dallas | 6.7 | ||
| Tampa Bay | 6.7 | ||
| Pittsburgh | 6.6 | ||
| Houston | 6.5 | ||
| Carolina | 6.5 | ||
| Cleveland | 6.2 | ||
| Indianapolis | 6.2 | ||
| St. Louis | 6.1 | ||
| Oakland | 6.0 | ||
| Miami | 6.0 | ||
| Kansas City | 6.0 | ||
| Washington | 5.9 | ||
| Jacksonville | 5.1 | ||
--Andy Richardson