We're careful not to place a lot of stock in fumbles when projecting defensive performance. They don't tend to be consistent from year to year, and they aren't as heavily tied to defensive performance as you might expect. The Jets, for example, had the league's 11th-ranked defense in terms of yardage allowed last year, but finished last in recovering fumbles, with only 2 all season. Unpredictable, since the previous season they were 8th.
Despite that, we're forced to acknowledge that a select group of teams have a greater knack for forcing fumbles than most others. The Giants and Patriots have ranked in the top 10 in forcing fumbles in each of the last four seasons, and have the most total fumbles forced over that timeframe. No. 3 are the Bears, with the Bengals and Vikings rounding out the top 5.
Perhaps those teams have top pass rushes, leading to an increase in forcing fumbles? It's a theory we've explored before, but it doesn't seem to carry much weight. New England has had an average pass rush, only once finishing higher than 14th in those four seasons. Chicago ranked 17th or lower in sacks in three of those four years. The Giants ranked 22nd and 25th in sacks the last two seasons, but were top-5 in forcing fumbles in both years.
At the end of the day, we're left to assign slightly more value to defenses like the Bears and Patriots, who have a long history of opportunism. But it's not something we'll factor heavily into our preseason rankings. In general, best to look at fumbles on a week to week basis, when schedule brings in teams that seem to have a problem hanging onto the football.
Total fumbles recovered by team over the last four seasons are presented below.
| FUMBLE RECOVERIES, 2010-2013 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Tot | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| NY Giants | 60 | 12 | 14 | 11 | 23 |
| New England | 57 | 12 | 21 | 11 | 13 |
| Chicago | 54 | 9 | 20 | 11 | 14 |
| Cincinnati | 49 | 11 | 16 | 12 | 10 |
| Minnesota | 45 | 8 | 12 | 15 | 10 |
| San Francisco | 45 | 12 | 11 | 15 | 7 |
| Carolina | 44 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 12 |
| NY Jets | 44 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 18 |
| Arizona | 43 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 13 |
| Seattle | 43 | 11 | 13 | 9 | 10 |
| Atlanta | 41 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| Dallas | 41 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 10 |
| Detroit | 41 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 15 |
| New Orleans | 41 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 16 |
| Oakland | 41 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 12 |
| Washington | 41 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 13 |
| Baltimore | 39 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 8 |
| Cleveland | 39 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 9 |
| Buffalo | 38 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 11 |
| Pittsburgh | 38 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 14 |
| Jacksonville | 37 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 5 |
| Philadelphia | 37 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 11 |
| St. Louis | 37 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 12 |
| Tampa Bay | 37 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 9 |
| Tennessee | 37 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 8 |
| Kansas City | 36 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 9 |
| Indianapolis | 35 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 11 |
| Denver | 34 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8 |
| Houston | 33 | 4 | 14 | 10 | 5 |
| Green Bay | 31 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 8 |
| San Diego | 30 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 6 |
| Miami | 23 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 8 |
--Andy Richardson