Eddie Lacy had an awesome rookie season, rushing for 1,178 yards and scoring 11 TDs. He'll be a first-round pick in fantasy drafts next season; maybe even a top-5 guy. Can he be even better than he was in 2013? The odds are against him.
Since 1978, when the league went to a 16-game season, exactly 50 running backs have rushed for at least 1,000 yards in their rookie season. Of those 50, fewer than a third (15) rushed for more yards in Year 2. Thirty-five of them rushed for fewer yards, with just over half (26) of the 50 failing to reach 1,000 yards again.
Of course, another way to look at it is that based on the history, Lacy has close to a 50-50 shot of reaching 1,000 rushing yards again. Since he's involved in the passing game (he caught 35 balls a year ago), he may prove worthy of that first-round fantasy pick even if his rushing numbers dip a bit.
As with any running back, health will be an issue. The running backs who really fell off the map in their second seasons were the ones who barely played due to injury: Curt Warner, Jamal Lewis, Robert Edwards.
Rushing numbers for 1,000-yard rookies in Year 2, organized by percent increase or decrease, are shown in the table below.
| TOP ROOKIE RUNNERS, YEAR 2 (1978-PRESENT) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player, Team | Yds (Yr 1) | Yds (Yr 2) | +/-% |
| Eddie Lacy, G.B. | 1178 | ??? | ?? |
| Chris Johnson, Tenn. | 1228 | 2006 | 63% |
| Terrell Davis, Den. | 1117 | 1538 | 38% |
| LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1236 | 1683 | 36% |
| Adrian Peterson, Minn. | 1341 | 1760 | 31% |
| William Andrews, Atl. | 1023 | 1308 | 28% |
| Errict Rhett, T.B. | 1011 | 1207 | 19% |
| Earl Campbell, Hou. | 1450 | 1697 | 17% |
| Eric Dickerson, Rams | 1808 | 2105 | 16% |
| Domanick Davis, Hou. | 1031 | 1188 | 15% |
| Billy Sims, Det. | 1303 | 1437 | 10% |
| Edgerrin James, Ind. | 1553 | 1709 | 10% |
| Clinton Portis, Den. | 1508 | 1591 | 6% |
| Bobby Humphrey, Den. | 1151 | 1202 | 4% |
| Eddie George, Tenn. | 1368 | 1399 | 2% |
| Corey Dillon, Cin. | 1129 | 1130 | 0% |
| Joseph Addai, Ind. | 1081 | 1072 | -1% |
| Marshawn Lynch, Buff. | 1115 | 1036 | -7% |
| Joe Cribbs, Buff. | 1185 | 1097 | -7% |
| Barry Sanders, Det. | 1470 | 1304 | -11% |
| Ottis Anderson, St.L. | 1605 | 1352 | -16% |
| Marshall Faulk, Ind. | 1282 | 1078 | -16% |
| Greg Bell, Buff. | 1100 | 883 | -20% |
| Karim Abdul-Jabbar, Mia. | 1116 | 892 | -20% |
| Alfred Morris, Wash. | 1613 | 1275 | -21% |
| LeGarrette Blount, T.B. | 1007 | 781 | -22% |
| Curtis Martin, N.E. | 1487 | 1152 | -23% |
| Ron Moore, Ariz. | 1018 | 780 | -23% |
| Matt Forte, Chi. | 1238 | 929 | -25% |
| Jerome Bettis, Rams | 1429 | 1025 | -28% |
| John Stephens, N.E. | 1168 | 833 | -29% |
| Rueben Mayes, N.O. | 1353 | 917 | -32% |
| Cadillac Williams, T.B. | 1178 | 798 | -32% |
| Anthony Thomas, Chi. | 1183 | 721 | -39% |
| Kevin Mack, Clev. | 1104 | 665 | -40% |
| Fred Taylor, Jac. | 1223 | 732 | -40% |
| Kevin Jones, Det. | 1133 | 664 | -41% |
| Rashaan Salaam, Chi. | 1074 | 496 | -54% |
| Terry Miller, Buff. | 1060 | 484 | -54% |
| Mike Anderson, Den. | 1487 | 678 | -54% |
| Steve Slaton, Hou. | 1282 | 437 | -66% |
| Joe Delaney, K.C. | 1121 | 380 | -66% |
| George Rogers, N.O. | 1674 | 535 | -68% |
| Doug Martin, T.B. | 1454 | 456 | -69% |
| Reggie Brooks, Wash. | 1063 | 297 | -72% |
| Ickey Woods, Cin. | 1066 | 94 | -91% |
| Olandis Gary, Den. | 1159 | 80 | -93% |
| Curt Warner, Sea. | 1449 | 40 | -97% |
| Jamal Lewis, Balt. | 1364 | 0 | -100% |
| Robert Edwards, N.E. | 1115 | 0 | -100% |
| Dominic Rhodes, Ind. | 1104 | 0 | -100% |
--Andy Richardson