Tyler Eifert had a credible rookie season for the Bengals last year. The first-rounder caught 39 passes for 445 yards and 2 TDs. The recent history of tight ends selected in the first round indicates Eifert will likely improve upon those numbers in his second season. He might even be much better.
Since 2000, there have been 16 other tight ends selected in the first round. Only six of those players didn't record more yards in their second season than their first. One was nearly the same, and the only real flops were Jerramy Stevens and Kellen Winslow, the latter of whom blew out his knee in a motorcycle accident. Nearly half (7) of the 16 had about twice as many yards (or more) in their second season compared to their first. Eleven of those players also caught more touchdowns.
None of that means Eifert, who could still be competing for looks with Jermaine Gresham, is guaranteed for a huge breakout. Note that only two of those previous tight ends, Todd Heap and Brandon Pettigrew, put up more than 600 receiving yards in their second seasons.
But it looks reasonable to pencil in that 445 yards as his floor for 2014, with a decent shot of him greatly improving on those numbers.
First- and second-year numbers for tight ends drafted in the first round since 2000, sorted by percentage of yards increased, are presented below.
| FIRST-ROUND TIGHT ENDS, 2000- | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft | Player, Team | Yds(1) | TD(1) | Yds(2) | TD(2) | Yds% | TD% |
| 2004 | Benjamin Watson, N.E. | 16 | 0 | 441 | 4 | 2756% | 400% |
| 2001 | Todd Heap, Balt. | 206 | 1 | 836 | 6 | 406% | 600% |
| 2006 | Marcedes Lewis, Jac. | 126 | 1 | 391 | 2 | 310% | 200% |
| 2002 | Daniel Graham, N.E. | 150 | 1 | 409 | 4 | 273% | 400% |
| 2000 | Anthony Becht, NYJ | 144 | 2 | 321 | 5 | 223% | 250% |
| 2009 | Brandon Pettigrew, Det. | 346 | 2 | 722 | 4 | 209% | 200% |
| 2006 | Vernon Davis, S.F. | 265 | 3 | 509 | 4 | 192% | 133% |
| 2007 | Greg Olsen, Chi. | 391 | 2 | 574 | 5 | 147% | 250% |
| 2010 | Jermaine Gresham, Cin. | 471 | 4 | 596 | 6 | 127% | 150% |
| 2003 | Dallas Clark, Ind. | 340 | 1 | 423 | 5 | 124% | 500% |
| 2008 | Dustin Keller, NYJ | 535 | 3 | 522 | 2 | 98% | 67% |
| 2000 | Bubba Franks, G.B. | 363 | 1 | 322 | 9 | 89% | 900% |
| 2005 | Heath Miller, Pitt. | 459 | 6 | 393 | 5 | 86% | 83% |
| 2002 | Jeremy Shockey, NYG | 894 | 2 | 535 | 2 | 60% | 100% |
| 2002 | Jerramy Stevens, Sea. | 252 | 3 | 72 | 0 | 29% | 0% |
| 2004 | Kellen Winslow, Clev. | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 2013 | Tyler Eifert, Cin. | 445 | 2 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
--Andy Richardson