Calvin Johnson is so big and talented, you just throw him the ball and let him take away from defensive backs.
That’s the theory, anway. And one that’s easy to throw around when you don’t have the numbers in front of you.
The reality is that Johnson, as talented as he is, hasn’t been particularly effective around the end zone. It would be more accurate, in fact, to say he’s been ineffective.
Over the last two years, the Lions have thrown the ball 21 times to Johnson when they’ve been inside the 10 yard line. Those attempts have resulted in 8 completions and only 5 scores.
The most effective wide receivers in that part of the field, oddly, have been small guys – Julian Edelman and Wes Welker. Those guys have caught about 70 percent of the passes thrown to them in part of the field.
This is where somebody raises their hand and points out that they’ve caught passes from Hall of Fame quarterbacks – Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.
True. But it’s not as if Johnson is saddled with the likes of Matt Flynn, Brandon Weeden or Case Keenum. Matthew Stafford is a former No. 1 overall pick, he’s thrown for a lot of yards and touchdowns, and he’s 26.
To me, it shows that while Johnson is great and really talented, NFL defenses are also good – all of them. And when they’ve seen him score a few fade routes, they game plan, prepare and try to take that away.
To me, the strength of Johnson – his No. 1 attribute – isn’t his ability to win 50-50 type balls. I think Larry Fitzgerald has a better body of work in that area. It’s Johnson’s long-striding speed that makes him a headache. They run him downfield on deeper routes (where he has the room to build up to top speed), and then it’s really hard for defensive backs to stop him from catching those longer balls.
Here are the inside-the-10 stats for receivers over the last two years, with catches, targets and scores. Scores are labeled as “TD”, but they include both touchdowns and 2-point conversions. The guys are ordered by completion percentage.
| RECEIVING INSIDE 10 (2012-13) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | No | Att | TD | Pct |
| Danny Woodhead | 12 | 16 | 3 | 75.0% |
| Julian Edelman | 10 | 14 | 8 | 71.4% |
| Darren Sproles | 10 | 14 | 5 | 71.4% |
| Wes Welker | 17 | 25 | 13 | 68.0% |
| Anthony Fasano | 10 | 15 | 7 | 66.7% |
| Heath Miller | 12 | 19 | 9 | 63.2% |
| Tony Gonzalez | 12 | 20 | 10 | 60.0% |
| Vernon Davis | 9 | 15 | 8 | 60.0% |
| Victor Cruz | 9 | 15 | 6 | 60.0% |
| Jordy Nelson | 10 | 17 | 6 | 58.8% |
| Rob Gronkowski | 10 | 17 | 8 | 58.8% |
| Dez Bryant | 15 | 26 | 13 | 57.7% |
| Marques Colston | 9 | 16 | 8 | 56.3% |
| Eric Decker | 14 | 25 | 11 | 56.0% |
| Jimmy Graham | 15 | 27 | 12 | 55.6% |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 12 | 22 | 6 | 54.5% |
| Andre Johnson | 8 | 15 | 4 | 53.3% |
| James Jones | 11 | 21 | 9 | 52.4% |
| A.J. Green | 14 | 28 | 10 | 50.0% |
| Pierre Garcon | 7 | 14 | 5 | 50.0% |
| Brandon Myers | 7 | 14 | 5 | 50.0% |
| Jordan Cameron | 8 | 17 | 6 | 47.1% |
| Brandon Marshall | 14 | 30 | 12 | 46.7% |
| Denarius Moore | 7 | 15 | 7 | 46.7% |
| Martellus Bennett | 7 | 15 | 6 | 46.7% |
| Roddy White | 7 | 15 | 4 | 46.7% |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 7 | 16 | 3 | 43.8% |
| Greg Olsen | 7 | 16 | 5 | 43.8% |
| Reggie Wayne | 7 | 16 | 6 | 43.8% |
| Demaryius Thomas | 9 | 21 | 7 | 42.9% |
| Julio Jones | 7 | 17 | 4 | 41.2% |
| Anquan Boldin | 6 | 15 | 5 | 40.0% |
| Calvin Johnson | 8 | 21 | 5 | 38.1% |
| Mike Williams | 7 | 19 | 7 | 36.8% |
| Cecil Shorts III | 5 | 17 | 4 | 29.4% |
—Ian Allan