In trying to determine if a college quarterback will have a successful professional career, NFL teams look at lots of different numbers. And so do we, trying to figure out what college statistics are important, and what might not be.
In looking at the final year of college for quarterbacks selected in the first round over the last dozen or so years, what's most important? Completion percentage? Yards per completion? Touchdown to interception ratio? Figure out which of these meant the most in determining whether a quarterback would be a successful pro, and maybe you're closer to determining which of Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel or Teddy Bridgewater has the best shot of NFL success.
The first table shows first-round quarterbacks since 2000, sorted by completion percentage their final year of college. The second shows the same group sorted by yards per completion, and the third shows them sorted by TD-Int ratio. In each case, we've slotted in those likely first-rounders, as well.
Completion percentage looks deceptive, considering Brandon Weeden ranks atop the list. But a lot of the guys at the bottom either flopped or appear to be headed that way.
COMP %, FINAL YEAR OF COLLEGE, 2000- | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | Draft | Att | Com | Pct | P Yds |
Brandon Weeden | 2012 | 564 | 408 | 72.3 | 4727 |
Philip Rivers | 2004 | 483 | 348 | 72.0 | 4491 |
Robert Griffin III | 2012 | 406 | 291 | 71.7 | 4293 |
Andrew Luck | 2012 | 404 | 288 | 71.3 | 3517 |
Teddy Bridgewater | 2014 | 427 | 303 | 71.0 | 3970 |
Johnny Manziel | 2014 | 429 | 300 | 69.9 | 4114 |
Jason Campbell | 2005 | 270 | 188 | 69.6 | 2700 |
Ben Roethlisberger | 2004 | 495 | 342 | 69.1 | 4486 |
EJ Manuel | 2013 | 387 | 263 | 68.0 | 3397 |
JaMarcus Russell | 2007 | 342 | 232 | 67.8 | 3129 |
Tim Tebow | 2010 | 314 | 213 | 67.8 | 2895 |
Blake Bortles | 2014 | 382 | 259 | 67.8 | 3581 |
Alex Smith | 2005 | 317 | 214 | 67.5 | 2952 |
Chad Pennington | 2000 | 433 | 292 | 67.4 | 4006 |
Byron Leftwich | 2003 | 491 | 331 | 67.4 | 4268 |
Aaron Rodgers | 2005 | 316 | 209 | 66.1 | 2566 |
Cam Newton | 2011 | 280 | 185 | 66.1 | 2854 |
Mark Sanchez | 2009 | 366 | 241 | 65.8 | 3207 |
Matt Leinart | 2006 | 431 | 283 | 65.7 | 3815 |
Vince Young | 2006 | 325 | 212 | 65.2 | 3036 |
David Carr | 2002 | 476 | 308 | 64.7 | 4299 |
Joe Flacco | 2008 | 521 | 331 | 63.5 | 4263 |
Blaine Gabbert | 2011 | 475 | 301 | 63.4 | 3186 |
Carson Palmer | 2003 | 489 | 309 | 63.2 | 3942 |
Eli Manning | 2004 | 441 | 275 | 62.4 | 3600 |
Brady Quinn | 2007 | 467 | 289 | 61.9 | 3426 |
Ryan Tannehill | 2012 | 531 | 327 | 61.6 | 3744 |
Christian Ponder | 2011 | 299 | 184 | 61.5 | 2044 |
Matthew Stafford | 2009 | 383 | 235 | 61.4 | 3459 |
J.P. Losman | 2004 | 422 | 251 | 59.5 | 3077 |
Matt Ryan | 2008 | 654 | 388 | 59.3 | 4507 |
Jay Cutler | 2006 | 462 | 273 | 59.1 | 3073 |
Josh Freeman | 2009 | 382 | 224 | 58.6 | 2945 |
Joey Harrington | 2002 | 322 | 186 | 57.8 | 2415 |
Rex Grossman | 2003 | 503 | 287 | 57.1 | 3402 |
Patrick Ramsey | 2002 | 449 | 256 | 57.0 | 2935 |
Sam Bradford | 2010 | 69 | 39 | 56.5 | 562 |
Jake Locker | 2011 | 332 | 184 | 55.4 | 2265 |
Michael Vick | 2001 | 161 | 87 | 54.0 | 1234 |
Kyle Boller | 2003 | 421 | 225 | 53.4 | 2815 |
Yards per completion doesn't stick many obvious duds at the top or stars at the bottom. Matt Ryan and Jay Cutler seemed to defy the odds. Most of the guys near the top have had some NFL success
YARDS/COMPLETION, FINAL YEAR OF COLLEGE, 2000- | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | Draft | Att | Com | P Yds | YPCom |
Cam Newton | 2011 | 280 | 185 | 2854 | 15.43 |
Robert Griffin III | 2012 | 406 | 291 | 4293 | 14.75 |
Matthew Stafford | 2009 | 383 | 235 | 3459 | 14.72 |
Sam Bradford | 2010 | 69 | 39 | 562 | 14.41 |
Jason Campbell | 2005 | 270 | 188 | 2700 | 14.36 |
Vince Young | 2006 | 325 | 212 | 3036 | 14.32 |
Michael Vick | 2001 | 161 | 87 | 1234 | 14.18 |
David Carr | 2002 | 476 | 308 | 4299 | 13.96 |
Blake Bortles | 2014 | 382 | 259 | 3581 | 13.83 |
Alex Smith | 2005 | 317 | 214 | 2952 | 13.79 |
Chad Pennington | 2000 | 433 | 292 | 4006 | 13.72 |
Johnny Manziel | 2014 | 429 | 300 | 4114 | 13.71 |
Tim Tebow | 2010 | 314 | 213 | 2895 | 13.59 |
JaMarcus Russell | 2007 | 342 | 232 | 3129 | 13.49 |
Matt Leinart | 2006 | 431 | 283 | 3815 | 13.48 |
Mark Sanchez | 2009 | 366 | 241 | 3207 | 13.31 |
Josh Freeman | 2009 | 382 | 224 | 2945 | 13.15 |
Ben Roethlisberger | 2004 | 495 | 342 | 4486 | 13.12 |
Teddy Bridgewater | 2014 | 427 | 303 | 3970 | 13.10 |
Eli Manning | 2004 | 441 | 275 | 3600 | 13.09 |
Joey Harrington | 2002 | 322 | 186 | 2415 | 12.98 |
EJ Manuel | 2013 | 387 | 263 | 3397 | 12.92 |
Philip Rivers | 2004 | 483 | 348 | 4491 | 12.91 |
Byron Leftwich | 2003 | 491 | 331 | 4268 | 12.89 |
Joe Flacco | 2008 | 521 | 331 | 4263 | 12.88 |
Carson Palmer | 2003 | 489 | 309 | 3942 | 12.76 |
Kyle Boller | 2003 | 421 | 225 | 2815 | 12.51 |
Jake Locker | 2011 | 332 | 184 | 2265 | 12.31 |
Aaron Rodgers | 2005 | 316 | 209 | 2566 | 12.28 |
J.P. Losman | 2004 | 422 | 251 | 3077 | 12.26 |
Andrew Luck | 2012 | 404 | 288 | 3517 | 12.21 |
Brady Quinn | 2007 | 467 | 289 | 3426 | 11.85 |
Rex Grossman | 2003 | 503 | 287 | 3402 | 11.85 |
Matt Ryan | 2008 | 654 | 388 | 4507 | 11.62 |
Brandon Weeden | 2012 | 564 | 408 | 4727 | 11.59 |
Patrick Ramsey | 2002 | 449 | 256 | 2935 | 11.46 |
Ryan Tannehill | 2012 | 531 | 327 | 3744 | 11.45 |
Jay Cutler | 2006 | 462 | 273 | 3073 | 11.26 |
Christian Ponder | 2011 | 299 | 184 | 2044 | 11.11 |
Blaine Gabbert | 2011 | 475 | 301 | 3186 | 10.58 |
Touchdown to interception ratio looks fairly meaningless. In the magazine, you won't hear us spending much time talking about how many touchdowns to INTs a certain player threw. He might well be the next David Carr or Brady Quinn.
TD/INT RATIO, FINAL YEAR OF COLLEGE, 2000- | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Player | Draft | TDP | Int | TD-Int |
David Carr | 2002 | 42 | 7 | 35 |
Robert Griffin III | 2012 | 37 | 6 | 31 |
Brady Quinn | 2007 | 37 | 7 | 30 |
Alex Smith | 2005 | 32 | 4 | 28 |
Ben Roethlisberger | 2004 | 37 | 10 | 27 |
Teddy Bridgewater | 2014 | 31 | 4 | 27 |
Philip Rivers | 2004 | 34 | 7 | 27 |
Andrew Luck | 2012 | 37 | 10 | 27 |
Chad Pennington | 2000 | 38 | 12 | 26 |
Johnny Manziel | 2014 | 37 | 13 | 24 |
Mark Sanchez | 2009 | 34 | 10 | 24 |
Brandon Weeden | 2012 | 37 | 13 | 24 |
Cam Newton | 2011 | 30 | 7 | 23 |
Carson Palmer | 2003 | 33 | 10 | 23 |
JaMarcus Russell | 2007 | 28 | 8 | 20 |
Matt Leinart | 2006 | 28 | 8 | 20 |
Byron Leftwich | 2003 | 30 | 10 | 20 |
Eli Manning | 2004 | 29 | 10 | 19 |
J.P. Losman | 2004 | 33 | 14 | 19 |
Joey Harrington | 2002 | 23 | 5 | 18 |
Joe Flacco | 2008 | 23 | 5 | 18 |
Kyle Boller | 2003 | 28 | 10 | 18 |
Vince Young | 2006 | 26 | 10 | 16 |
Blake Bortles | 2014 | 25 | 9 | 16 |
Tim Tebow | 2010 | 21 | 5 | 16 |
Aaron Rodgers | 2005 | 24 | 8 | 16 |
Matthew Stafford | 2009 | 25 | 10 | 15 |
Ryan Tannehill | 2012 | 29 | 15 | 14 |
Jason Campbell | 2005 | 20 | 7 | 13 |
EJ Manuel | 2013 | 23 | 10 | 13 |
Josh Freeman | 2009 | 20 | 8 | 12 |
Matt Ryan | 2008 | 31 | 19 | 12 |
Jay Cutler | 2006 | 21 | 9 | 12 |
Christian Ponder | 2011 | 20 | 8 | 12 |
Patrick Ramsey | 2002 | 22 | 13 | 9 |
Jake Locker | 2011 | 17 | 9 | 8 |
Blaine Gabbert | 2011 | 16 | 9 | 7 |
Rex Grossman | 2003 | 22 | 17 | 5 |
Sam Bradford | 2010 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Michael Vick | 2001 | 8 | 6 | 2 |
Based on the numbers that seem the most meaningful, we could give Bortles and Manziel the best chances for NFL success of the three quarterbacks, but it's by no means a slamdunk. Comparable to other first-round passers over the last 14 years, all three of them grade out fairly well.
--Andy Richardson