Fantasy Index

Factoid

College QBs: completion percentage, yards per attempt

In trying to determine if a college quarterback will have a successful professional career, NFL teams look at lots of different numbers. And so do we, trying to figure out what college statistics are important, and what might not be.

In looking at the final year of college for quarterbacks selected in the first round over the last dozen or so years, what's most important? Completion percentage? Yards per completion? Touchdown to interception ratio? Figure out which of these meant the most in determining whether a quarterback would be a successful pro, and maybe you're closer to determining which of Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel or Teddy Bridgewater has the best shot of NFL success.

The first table shows first-round quarterbacks since 2000, sorted by completion percentage their final year of college. The second shows the same group sorted by yards per completion, and the third shows them sorted by TD-Int ratio. In each case, we've slotted in those likely first-rounders, as well.

Completion percentage looks deceptive, considering Brandon Weeden ranks atop the list. But a lot of the guys at the bottom either flopped or appear to be headed that way.

COMP %, FINAL YEAR OF COLLEGE, 2000-
PlayerDraftAttComPctP Yds
Brandon Weeden201256440872.34727
Philip Rivers200448334872.04491
Robert Griffin III201240629171.74293
Andrew Luck201240428871.33517
Teddy Bridgewater201442730371.03970
Johnny Manziel201442930069.94114
Jason Campbell200527018869.62700
Ben Roethlisberger200449534269.14486
EJ Manuel201338726368.03397
JaMarcus Russell200734223267.83129
Tim Tebow201031421367.82895
Blake Bortles201438225967.83581
Alex Smith200531721467.52952
Chad Pennington200043329267.44006
Byron Leftwich200349133167.44268
Aaron Rodgers200531620966.12566
Cam Newton201128018566.12854
Mark Sanchez200936624165.83207
Matt Leinart200643128365.73815
Vince Young200632521265.23036
David Carr200247630864.74299
Joe Flacco200852133163.54263
Blaine Gabbert201147530163.43186
Carson Palmer200348930963.23942
Eli Manning200444127562.43600
Brady Quinn200746728961.93426
Ryan Tannehill201253132761.63744
Christian Ponder201129918461.52044
Matthew Stafford200938323561.43459
J.P. Losman200442225159.53077
Matt Ryan200865438859.34507
Jay Cutler200646227359.13073
Josh Freeman200938222458.62945
Joey Harrington200232218657.82415
Rex Grossman200350328757.13402
Patrick Ramsey200244925657.02935
Sam Bradford2010693956.5562
Jake Locker201133218455.42265
Michael Vick20011618754.01234
Kyle Boller200342122553.42815

Yards per completion doesn't stick many obvious duds at the top or stars at the bottom. Matt Ryan and Jay Cutler seemed to defy the odds. Most of the guys near the top have had some NFL success

YARDS/COMPLETION, FINAL YEAR OF COLLEGE, 2000-
PlayerDraftAttComP YdsYPCom
Cam Newton2011280185285415.43
Robert Griffin III2012406291429314.75
Matthew Stafford2009383235345914.72
Sam Bradford2010693956214.41
Jason Campbell2005270188270014.36
Vince Young2006325212303614.32
Michael Vick200116187123414.18
David Carr2002476308429913.96
Blake Bortles2014382259358113.83
Alex Smith2005317214295213.79
Chad Pennington2000433292400613.72
Johnny Manziel2014429300411413.71
Tim Tebow2010314213289513.59
JaMarcus Russell2007342232312913.49
Matt Leinart2006431283381513.48
Mark Sanchez2009366241320713.31
Josh Freeman2009382224294513.15
Ben Roethlisberger2004495342448613.12
Teddy Bridgewater2014427303397013.10
Eli Manning2004441275360013.09
Joey Harrington2002322186241512.98
EJ Manuel2013387263339712.92
Philip Rivers2004483348449112.91
Byron Leftwich2003491331426812.89
Joe Flacco2008521331426312.88
Carson Palmer2003489309394212.76
Kyle Boller2003421225281512.51
Jake Locker2011332184226512.31
Aaron Rodgers2005316209256612.28
J.P. Losman2004422251307712.26
Andrew Luck2012404288351712.21
Brady Quinn2007467289342611.85
Rex Grossman2003503287340211.85
Matt Ryan2008654388450711.62
Brandon Weeden2012564408472711.59
Patrick Ramsey2002449256293511.46
Ryan Tannehill2012531327374411.45
Jay Cutler2006462273307311.26
Christian Ponder2011299184204411.11
Blaine Gabbert2011475301318610.58

Touchdown to interception ratio looks fairly meaningless. In the magazine, you won't hear us spending much time talking about how many touchdowns to INTs a certain player threw. He might well be the next David Carr or Brady Quinn.

TD/INT RATIO, FINAL YEAR OF COLLEGE, 2000-
PlayerDraftTDPIntTD-Int
David Carr200242735
Robert Griffin III201237631
Brady Quinn200737730
Alex Smith200532428
Ben Roethlisberger2004371027
Teddy Bridgewater201431427
Philip Rivers200434727
Andrew Luck2012371027
Chad Pennington2000381226
Johnny Manziel2014371324
Mark Sanchez2009341024
Brandon Weeden2012371324
Cam Newton201130723
Carson Palmer2003331023
JaMarcus Russell200728820
Matt Leinart200628820
Byron Leftwich2003301020
Eli Manning2004291019
J.P. Losman2004331419
Joey Harrington200223518
Joe Flacco200823518
Kyle Boller2003281018
Vince Young2006261016
Blake Bortles201425916
Tim Tebow201021516
Aaron Rodgers200524816
Matthew Stafford2009251015
Ryan Tannehill2012291514
Jason Campbell200520713
EJ Manuel2013231013
Josh Freeman200920812
Matt Ryan2008311912
Jay Cutler200621912
Christian Ponder201120812
Patrick Ramsey200222139
Jake Locker20111798
Blaine Gabbert20111697
Rex Grossman200322175
Sam Bradford2010202
Michael Vick2001862

Based on the numbers that seem the most meaningful, we could give Bortles and Manziel the best chances for NFL success of the three quarterbacks, but it's by no means a slamdunk. Comparable to other first-round passers over the last 14 years, all three of them grade out fairly well.

--Andy Richardson

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