Fantasy Index

Ian Allan

Production vs. draft position

Do players selected a little higher post better numbers?

How often does an NFL team get it right? At the end of the second round of the draft, for example, running backs Bishop Sankey, Jeremy Hill and Carlos Hyde went off the board. What is the probability that Sankey will have a better career than Hill who would have a better career than Hyde?

Should we, as fantasy GMs, pay much attention to draft position? Obviously, we’ll pay some attention. We can see that quarterbacks taken in the first round are better than those taken in the third round.

But when players are selected by just a couple of spots, should we pretty much ignore that and focus more on what we think of the guys and how they fit into their new team?

I looked at it a little Decide to compare some of the numbers across the years.

I pulled out the first two rounds of each draft from the last 30 years. I looked at just running backs and wide receivers. And I did a comparison anytime players were picked right after each other, or with only one player between.

Deciding which player is “better” can be subjective. Ronnie Brown and Cedric Benson, for example, were picked 2nd and 4th in 2005. Which guy was “better”?

Since I’m looking at lots of guys, I wanted to standardize it and just go off numbers. So I looked at the combined production of each player in the first three years of his career. Yards and touchdowns.

Using that as a model, there’s essentially no difference when players are selected close to each other.

For wide receivers, for example, 53 times in the last 30 years two wide receivers have been selected consecutively, or with just one inbetween. On 29 of those 53 occasions, the wide receiver drafted second was more productive in his first three years. That’s using standard fantasy points – 6 for TDs and 1 for every 10 yards.

It’s similar with running backs. 46 occasions in the last 30 years (again, looking at just the first two rounds). An even 23-23 split at this position. In this study, the same names can appear twice. In 2008, for example, Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall and Chris Johnson were picked consecutively, so they each appear twice. (The NFL teams got that one exactly wrong, by the way – Johnson was better than Mendenhall, and Mendenhall beat Jones.)

Bottom line: when compared those clustered players, like Sankey, Hill and Hyde, no need to get too hung up on exactly where the guys were drafted.

Here’s a sampling of the findings below. The charts get too complicated, so I trimmed out the touchdowns and fantasy points here and went with just straight yards. Total yards for running backs, and receiving yards for wide receivers.

Yardage figures show the totals for the first three seasons (or fewer if drafted in 2012 or 2013). Some players would change if touchdowns were included (Cordarrelle Patterson, for example, would be better than DeAndre Hopkins last year).

HIGHER RUNNING BACKS WHO WERE BETTER
YearFirst chosenYardsSecond chosenYards
198631 Dalton Hilliard2,46233 Darryl Clack217
198615 John L. Williams3,20516 Ronnie Harmon1,958
198627 Neal Anderson2,75629 Garry James2,326
198719 Paul Palmer1,78421 Roger Vick1,700
198823 Brad Muster2,13524 Craig Heyward1,432
198822 Lorenzo White1,57124 Craig Heyward1,432
199017 Emmitt Smith5,03419 Darrell Thompson1,190
199030 Reggie Cobb2,96931 Anthony Thompson837
199024 Rodney Hampton3,42725 Dexter Carter1,361
199341 Natrone Means3,06543 Glyn Milburn1,738
199343 Glyn Milburn1,73845 Reggie Brooks1,612
199518 Napoleon Kaufman3,26619 James Stewart2,506
199519 James Stewart2,50621 Rashaan Salaam1,802
199544 Ray Zellars1,53046 Sherman Williams1,170
19966 Lawrence Phillips1,3768 Tim Biakabutuka1,093
19994 Edgerrin James5,2975 Ricky Williams4,221
20005 Jamal Lewis3,4297 Thomas Jones1,736
200216 William Green2,27818 T.J. Duckett1,965
200424 Steven Jackson4,56226 Chris Perry740
20052 Ronnie Brown3,4144 Cedric Benson1,773
201058 Ben Tate1,36859 Montario Hardesty675
201156 Shane Vereen1,09257 Mikel Leshoure1,012
201231 Doug Martin2,44832 David Wilson546
201361 Eddie Lacy1,43562 Christine Michael79
LOWER RUNNING BACKS WHO WERE BETTER
YearSecond chosenYardsFirst chosenYards
198527 Lorenzo Hampton2,21326 Steve Sewell1,208
198631 Dalton Hilliard2,46229 Garry James2,326
198627 Neal Anderson2,75626 Reggie Dupard741
19874 Brent Fullwood1,9313 Alonzo Highsmith1,490
198823 Brad Muster2,13522 Lorenzo White1,571
198840 Thurman Thomas4,83138 Tony Jeffrey8
19899 Sammie Smith2,0977 Tim Worley1,488
199020 Steve Broussard1,64219 Darrell Thompson1,190
199038 Harold Green2,69436 Anthony Johnson1,579
199145 Ricky Watters2,69443 Nick Bell1,066
199221 Vaughn Dunbar63619 Tony Smith343
199444 Mario Bates2,33442 Charlie Garner1,560
199519 James Stewart2,50617 Tyrone Wheatley1,446
199518 Napoleon Kaufman3,26617 Tyrone Wheatley1,446
199743 Corey Dillon4,18641 Byron Hanspard864
200256 Ladell Betts1,36254 Maurice Morris628
200443 Julius Jones3,36341 Tatum Bell2,641
20055 Cadillac Williams2,4784 Cedric Benson1,773
200750 Chris Henry17549 Kenny Irons0
200823 Rashard Mendenhall2,88422 Felix Jones2,330
200824 Chris Johnson5,60623 Rashard Mendenhall2,884
200824 Chris Johnson5,60622 Felix Jones2,330
HIGHER RECEIVERS WHO WERE BETTER
YearFirst chosenYardsSecond chosenYards
198449 Daryl Turner1,71950 Bruce Davis119
198643 Webster Slaughter1,84545 Walter Murray373
198754 Ron Morris1,36356 Scott Schwedes304
198727 Ricky Nattiel1,38728 Mark Ingram480
199026 Alexander Wright44928 Reggie Rembert336
199110 Herman Moore2,03612 Alvin Harper1,665
199433 Isaac Bruce3,39135 Kevin Lee107
19958 Joey Galloway3,07510 J.J. Stokes1,499
199850 Germane Crowell2,23252 Tony Simmons981
19996 Torry Holt3,7868 David Boston3,227
20008 Plaxico Burress2,60610 Travis Taylor1,705
200115 Rod Gardner2,34716 Santana Moss1,578
200247 Andre Davis1,41248 Reche Caldwell598
200263 Antonio Bryant2,09565 Deion Branch1,746
20047 Roy Williams2,8149 Reggie Williams1,329
200413 Lee Evans2,87815 Michael Clayton1,921
200429 Michael Jenkins1,06331 Rashaun Woods160
200744 Sidney Rice1,84945 Dwayne Jarrett388
200849 DeSean Jackson3,12451 Malcolm Kelly365
200833 Donnie Avery1,26334 Devin Thomas445
200851 Malcolm Kelly36553 Limas Sweed69
200929 Hakeem Nicks 3,03430 Kenny Britt 1,765
20114 A.J. Green3,8336 Julio Jones2,737
201158 Torrey Smith2,82459 Greg Little1,821
201327 DeAndre Hopkins80229 Cordarrelle Patterson469
LOWER RECEIVERS WHO WERE BETTER
YearSecond chosenYardsFirst chosenYards
198449 Daryl Turner1,71947 Pete Mandley460
198757 Mark Carrier2,81556 Scott Schwedes304
19887 Sterling Sharpe3,3196 Tim Brown998
198931 Lawyer Tillman7030 John Ford0
198933 Danny Peebles23031 Lawyer Tillman70
199113 Mike Pritchard2,18712 Alvin Harper1,665
199352 Qadry Ismail1,50550 Victor Bailey868
199441 Ryan Yarborough45540 David Palmer230
199430 Darnay Scott2,52029 Derrick Alexander2,143
199643 Mushin Muhammad1,66541 Bryan Still1,071
199619 Marvin Harrison2,47818 Eddie Kennison1,562
199747 Kevin Lockett74246 Joey Kent159
199716 Reidel Anthony1,45215 Yatil Green234
199834 Jacquez Green1,81532 Jerome Pathon1,320
199832 Jerome Pathon1,32030 Marcus Nash76
20019 Koren Robinson2,6728 David Terrell903
200248 Reche Caldwell59846 Tim Carter528
200220 Javon Walker2,41719 Ashley Lelie2,237
200263 Antonio Bryant2,09562 Antwaan Randle El1,454
200247 Andre Davis1,41246 Tim Carter528
200345 Bethel Johnson 45044 Taylor Jacobs 315
20033 Andre Johnson2,8062 Charles Rogers440
200522 Mark Clayton1,94121 Matt Jones1,392
200732 Anthony Gonzalez1,24030 Craig Davis299
200836 Jordy Nelson1,26834 Devin Thomas445
200842 Eddie Royal1,95241 James Hardy96
201024 Dez Bryant2,87122 Demaryius Thomas2,268
201245 Alshon Jeffery1,78843 Stephen Hill594

—Ian Allan

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