How often does an NFL team get it right? At the end of the second round of the draft, for example, running backs Bishop Sankey, Jeremy Hill and Carlos Hyde went off the board. What is the probability that Sankey will have a better career than Hill who would have a better career than Hyde?
Should we, as fantasy GMs, pay much attention to draft position? Obviously, we’ll pay some attention. We can see that quarterbacks taken in the first round are better than those taken in the third round.
But when players are selected by just a couple of spots, should we pretty much ignore that and focus more on what we think of the guys and how they fit into their new team?
I looked at it a little Decide to compare some of the numbers across the years.
I pulled out the first two rounds of each draft from the last 30 years. I looked at just running backs and wide receivers. And I did a comparison anytime players were picked right after each other, or with only one player between.
Deciding which player is “better” can be subjective. Ronnie Brown and Cedric Benson, for example, were picked 2nd and 4th in 2005. Which guy was “better”?
Since I’m looking at lots of guys, I wanted to standardize it and just go off numbers. So I looked at the combined production of each player in the first three years of his career. Yards and touchdowns.
Using that as a model, there’s essentially no difference when players are selected close to each other.
For wide receivers, for example, 53 times in the last 30 years two wide receivers have been selected consecutively, or with just one inbetween. On 29 of those 53 occasions, the wide receiver drafted second was more productive in his first three years. That’s using standard fantasy points – 6 for TDs and 1 for every 10 yards.
It’s similar with running backs. 46 occasions in the last 30 years (again, looking at just the first two rounds). An even 23-23 split at this position. In this study, the same names can appear twice. In 2008, for example, Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall and Chris Johnson were picked consecutively, so they each appear twice. (The NFL teams got that one exactly wrong, by the way – Johnson was better than Mendenhall, and Mendenhall beat Jones.)
Bottom line: when compared those clustered players, like Sankey, Hill and Hyde, no need to get too hung up on exactly where the guys were drafted.
Here’s a sampling of the findings below. The charts get too complicated, so I trimmed out the touchdowns and fantasy points here and went with just straight yards. Total yards for running backs, and receiving yards for wide receivers.
Yardage figures show the totals for the first three seasons (or fewer if drafted in 2012 or 2013). Some players would change if touchdowns were included (Cordarrelle Patterson, for example, would be better than DeAndre Hopkins last year).
HIGHER RUNNING BACKS WHO WERE BETTER | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Year | First chosen | Yards | Second chosen | Yards |
1986 | 31 Dalton Hilliard | 2,462 | 33 Darryl Clack | 217 |
1986 | 15 John L. Williams | 3,205 | 16 Ronnie Harmon | 1,958 |
1986 | 27 Neal Anderson | 2,756 | 29 Garry James | 2,326 |
1987 | 19 Paul Palmer | 1,784 | 21 Roger Vick | 1,700 |
1988 | 23 Brad Muster | 2,135 | 24 Craig Heyward | 1,432 |
1988 | 22 Lorenzo White | 1,571 | 24 Craig Heyward | 1,432 |
1990 | 17 Emmitt Smith | 5,034 | 19 Darrell Thompson | 1,190 |
1990 | 30 Reggie Cobb | 2,969 | 31 Anthony Thompson | 837 |
1990 | 24 Rodney Hampton | 3,427 | 25 Dexter Carter | 1,361 |
1993 | 41 Natrone Means | 3,065 | 43 Glyn Milburn | 1,738 |
1993 | 43 Glyn Milburn | 1,738 | 45 Reggie Brooks | 1,612 |
1995 | 18 Napoleon Kaufman | 3,266 | 19 James Stewart | 2,506 |
1995 | 19 James Stewart | 2,506 | 21 Rashaan Salaam | 1,802 |
1995 | 44 Ray Zellars | 1,530 | 46 Sherman Williams | 1,170 |
1996 | 6 Lawrence Phillips | 1,376 | 8 Tim Biakabutuka | 1,093 |
1999 | 4 Edgerrin James | 5,297 | 5 Ricky Williams | 4,221 |
2000 | 5 Jamal Lewis | 3,429 | 7 Thomas Jones | 1,736 |
2002 | 16 William Green | 2,278 | 18 T.J. Duckett | 1,965 |
2004 | 24 Steven Jackson | 4,562 | 26 Chris Perry | 740 |
2005 | 2 Ronnie Brown | 3,414 | 4 Cedric Benson | 1,773 |
2010 | 58 Ben Tate | 1,368 | 59 Montario Hardesty | 675 |
2011 | 56 Shane Vereen | 1,092 | 57 Mikel Leshoure | 1,012 |
2012 | 31 Doug Martin | 2,448 | 32 David Wilson | 546 |
2013 | 61 Eddie Lacy | 1,435 | 62 Christine Michael | 79 |
LOWER RUNNING BACKS WHO WERE BETTER | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Second chosen | Yards | First chosen | Yards |
1985 | 27 Lorenzo Hampton | 2,213 | 26 Steve Sewell | 1,208 |
1986 | 31 Dalton Hilliard | 2,462 | 29 Garry James | 2,326 |
1986 | 27 Neal Anderson | 2,756 | 26 Reggie Dupard | 741 |
1987 | 4 Brent Fullwood | 1,931 | 3 Alonzo Highsmith | 1,490 |
1988 | 23 Brad Muster | 2,135 | 22 Lorenzo White | 1,571 |
1988 | 40 Thurman Thomas | 4,831 | 38 Tony Jeffrey | 8 |
1989 | 9 Sammie Smith | 2,097 | 7 Tim Worley | 1,488 |
1990 | 20 Steve Broussard | 1,642 | 19 Darrell Thompson | 1,190 |
1990 | 38 Harold Green | 2,694 | 36 Anthony Johnson | 1,579 |
1991 | 45 Ricky Watters | 2,694 | 43 Nick Bell | 1,066 |
1992 | 21 Vaughn Dunbar | 636 | 19 Tony Smith | 343 |
1994 | 44 Mario Bates | 2,334 | 42 Charlie Garner | 1,560 |
1995 | 19 James Stewart | 2,506 | 17 Tyrone Wheatley | 1,446 |
1995 | 18 Napoleon Kaufman | 3,266 | 17 Tyrone Wheatley | 1,446 |
1997 | 43 Corey Dillon | 4,186 | 41 Byron Hanspard | 864 |
2002 | 56 Ladell Betts | 1,362 | 54 Maurice Morris | 628 |
2004 | 43 Julius Jones | 3,363 | 41 Tatum Bell | 2,641 |
2005 | 5 Cadillac Williams | 2,478 | 4 Cedric Benson | 1,773 |
2007 | 50 Chris Henry | 175 | 49 Kenny Irons | 0 |
2008 | 23 Rashard Mendenhall | 2,884 | 22 Felix Jones | 2,330 |
2008 | 24 Chris Johnson | 5,606 | 23 Rashard Mendenhall | 2,884 |
2008 | 24 Chris Johnson | 5,606 | 22 Felix Jones | 2,330 |
HIGHER RECEIVERS WHO WERE BETTER | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Year | First chosen | Yards | Second chosen | Yards |
1984 | 49 Daryl Turner | 1,719 | 50 Bruce Davis | 119 |
1986 | 43 Webster Slaughter | 1,845 | 45 Walter Murray | 373 |
1987 | 54 Ron Morris | 1,363 | 56 Scott Schwedes | 304 |
1987 | 27 Ricky Nattiel | 1,387 | 28 Mark Ingram | 480 |
1990 | 26 Alexander Wright | 449 | 28 Reggie Rembert | 336 |
1991 | 10 Herman Moore | 2,036 | 12 Alvin Harper | 1,665 |
1994 | 33 Isaac Bruce | 3,391 | 35 Kevin Lee | 107 |
1995 | 8 Joey Galloway | 3,075 | 10 J.J. Stokes | 1,499 |
1998 | 50 Germane Crowell | 2,232 | 52 Tony Simmons | 981 |
1999 | 6 Torry Holt | 3,786 | 8 David Boston | 3,227 |
2000 | 8 Plaxico Burress | 2,606 | 10 Travis Taylor | 1,705 |
2001 | 15 Rod Gardner | 2,347 | 16 Santana Moss | 1,578 |
2002 | 47 Andre Davis | 1,412 | 48 Reche Caldwell | 598 |
2002 | 63 Antonio Bryant | 2,095 | 65 Deion Branch | 1,746 |
2004 | 7 Roy Williams | 2,814 | 9 Reggie Williams | 1,329 |
2004 | 13 Lee Evans | 2,878 | 15 Michael Clayton | 1,921 |
2004 | 29 Michael Jenkins | 1,063 | 31 Rashaun Woods | 160 |
2007 | 44 Sidney Rice | 1,849 | 45 Dwayne Jarrett | 388 |
2008 | 49 DeSean Jackson | 3,124 | 51 Malcolm Kelly | 365 |
2008 | 33 Donnie Avery | 1,263 | 34 Devin Thomas | 445 |
2008 | 51 Malcolm Kelly | 365 | 53 Limas Sweed | 69 |
2009 | 29 Hakeem Nicks | 3,034 | 30 Kenny Britt | 1,765 |
2011 | 4 A.J. Green | 3,833 | 6 Julio Jones | 2,737 |
2011 | 58 Torrey Smith | 2,824 | 59 Greg Little | 1,821 |
2013 | 27 DeAndre Hopkins | 802 | 29 Cordarrelle Patterson | 469 |
LOWER RECEIVERS WHO WERE BETTER | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Second chosen | Yards | First chosen | Yards |
1984 | 49 Daryl Turner | 1,719 | 47 Pete Mandley | 460 |
1987 | 57 Mark Carrier | 2,815 | 56 Scott Schwedes | 304 |
1988 | 7 Sterling Sharpe | 3,319 | 6 Tim Brown | 998 |
1989 | 31 Lawyer Tillman | 70 | 30 John Ford | 0 |
1989 | 33 Danny Peebles | 230 | 31 Lawyer Tillman | 70 |
1991 | 13 Mike Pritchard | 2,187 | 12 Alvin Harper | 1,665 |
1993 | 52 Qadry Ismail | 1,505 | 50 Victor Bailey | 868 |
1994 | 41 Ryan Yarborough | 455 | 40 David Palmer | 230 |
1994 | 30 Darnay Scott | 2,520 | 29 Derrick Alexander | 2,143 |
1996 | 43 Mushin Muhammad | 1,665 | 41 Bryan Still | 1,071 |
1996 | 19 Marvin Harrison | 2,478 | 18 Eddie Kennison | 1,562 |
1997 | 47 Kevin Lockett | 742 | 46 Joey Kent | 159 |
1997 | 16 Reidel Anthony | 1,452 | 15 Yatil Green | 234 |
1998 | 34 Jacquez Green | 1,815 | 32 Jerome Pathon | 1,320 |
1998 | 32 Jerome Pathon | 1,320 | 30 Marcus Nash | 76 |
2001 | 9 Koren Robinson | 2,672 | 8 David Terrell | 903 |
2002 | 48 Reche Caldwell | 598 | 46 Tim Carter | 528 |
2002 | 20 Javon Walker | 2,417 | 19 Ashley Lelie | 2,237 |
2002 | 63 Antonio Bryant | 2,095 | 62 Antwaan Randle El | 1,454 |
2002 | 47 Andre Davis | 1,412 | 46 Tim Carter | 528 |
2003 | 45 Bethel Johnson | 450 | 44 Taylor Jacobs | 315 |
2003 | 3 Andre Johnson | 2,806 | 2 Charles Rogers | 440 |
2005 | 22 Mark Clayton | 1,941 | 21 Matt Jones | 1,392 |
2007 | 32 Anthony Gonzalez | 1,240 | 30 Craig Davis | 299 |
2008 | 36 Jordy Nelson | 1,268 | 34 Devin Thomas | 445 |
2008 | 42 Eddie Royal | 1,952 | 41 James Hardy | 96 |
2010 | 24 Dez Bryant | 2,871 | 22 Demaryius Thomas | 2,268 |
2012 | 45 Alshon Jeffery | 1,788 | 43 Stephen Hill | 594 |
—Ian Allan