Season’s starting tomorrow, so I took a couple of hours and did the “All 256”. This is the exercise of going through and forecasting each game. You don’t pick a “winner” in each game. Instead, you assign a probability to each game. When Denver hosts Oakland, for example, I’m giving the Broncos a 95 percent chance of winning that game. So for that week, the Broncos get .95 of a win, and the Raiders get .05 of a win.

It’s a blending of how strong I think each team is against the schedule it will play.

When I work through the 256 games, the teams are the top are what I expected. The Seahawks, Broncos and Patriots seem to be the teams with the best chance of winning 12-plus games. Then maybe the Saints and Eagles at 11 wins.

I expect the Super Bowl winner will come out of that group.

When I started this, I felt the Steelers, Bengals and Ravens were all pretty much interchangeable in the AFC North. Pittsburgh apparently plays an easier schedule, but it comes out as the winner, a game ahead of the Bengals and a half game ahead of the Ravens.

I’ve got three AFC teams down at the bottom: Raiders, Browns and Bills.

I noticed Sports Illustrated last week had the Buccaneers winning the NFC South and the Colts going to the Super Bowl. I have Tampa Bay down around 6-10, and I’ve got Indy as a 9-win team – just don’t see it.

And here’s the documentation – how I arrived at the above win totals. Let me know where you think I’m off.

WEEK-BY-WEEK FORECAST

WEEK 1 PROJECTIONS
Cleveland 15% at Pittsburgh 85%
Jacksonville 17% at Philadelphia 83%
Buffalo 18% at Chicago 82%
Green Bay 18% at Seattle 82%
Indianapolis 18% at Denver 82%
Oakland 20% at NY Jets 80%
NY Giants 35% at Detroit 65%
Cincinnati 45% at Baltimore 55%
Tennessee 45% at Kansas City 55%
San Diego 45% at Arizona 55%
Washington 45% at Houston 55%
Minnesota 50% at St. Louis 50%
San Francisco 57% at Dallas 43%
Carolina 52% at Tampa Bay 48%
New Orleans 60% at Atlanta 40%
New England 63% at Miami 37%
WEEK 2 PROJECTIONS
Kansas City 15% at Denver 85%
NY Jets 25% at Green Bay 75%
Atlanta 35% at Cincinnati 65%
Dallas 35% at Tennessee 65%
Detroit 43% at Carolina 57%
Jacksonville 45% at Washington 55%
Pittsburgh 45% at Baltimore 55%
St. Louis 45% at Tampa Bay 55%
Chicago 45% at San Francisco 55%
Houston 50% at Oakland 50%
Philadelphia 52% at Indianapolis 48%
Arizona 55% at NY Giants 45%
Miami 57% at Buffalo 43%
Seattle 60% at San Diego 40%
New England 70% at Minnesota 30%
New Orleans 73% at Cleveland 27%
WEEK 3 PROJECTIONS
Oakland 5% at New England 95%
Minnesota 17% at New Orleans 83%
Washington 17% at Philadelphia 83%
Tampa Bay 30% at Atlanta 70%
Tennessee 35% at Cincinnati 65%
Denver 40% at Seattle 60%
Houston 40% at NY Giants 60%
Kansas City 45% at Miami 55%
San Francisco 45% at Arizona 55%
Dallas 45% at St. Louis 55%
Pittsburgh 50% at Carolina 50%
Chicago 50% at NY Jets 50%
Green Bay 54% at Detroit 46%
Indianapolis 60% at Jacksonville 40%
San Diego 65% at Buffalo 35%
Baltimore 70% at Cleveland 30%
WEEK 4 PROJECTIONS
Tampa Bay 20% at Pittsburgh 80%
Jacksonville 22% at San Diego 78%
Tennessee 35% at Indianapolis 65%
Buffalo 43% at Houston 57%
Carolina 43% at Baltimore 57%
Detroit 45% at NY Jets 55%
NY Giants 50% at Washington 50%
Atlanta 50% at Minnesota 50%
Green Bay 50% at Chicago 50%
Philadelphia 50% at San Francisco 50%
Miami 62% at Oakland 38%
New England 65% at Kansas City 35%
New Orleans 70% at Dallas 30%
WEEK 5 PROJECTIONS
Tampa Bay 15% at New Orleans 85%
St. Louis 15% at Philadelphia 85%
Arizona 17% at Denver 83%
Cleveland 20% at Tennessee 80%
Minnesota 20% at Green Bay 80%
Buffalo 22% at Detroit 78%
Cincinnati 22% at New England 78%
NY Jets 35% at San Diego 65%
Kansas City 40% at San Francisco 60%
Houston 43% at Dallas 57%
Baltimore 45% at Indianapolis 55%
Chicago 45% at Carolina 55%
Atlanta 50% at NY Giants 50%
Pittsburgh 60% at Jacksonville 40%
Seattle 75% at Washington 25%
WEEK 6 PROJECTIONS
Dallas 5% at Seattle 95%
NY Giants 18% at Philadelphia 82%
Washington 25% at Arizona 75%
Jacksonville 35% at Tennessee 65%
Carolina 43% at Cincinnati 57%
Chicago 49% at Atlanta 51%
Detroit 48% at Minnesota 52%
Green Bay 57% at Miami 43%
San Francisco 60% at St. Louis 40%
Baltimore 62% at Tampa Bay 38%
Indianapolis 60% at Houston 40%
Pittsburgh 70% at Cleveland 30%
San Diego 70% at Oakland 30%
Denver 70% at NY Jets 30%
New England 73% at Buffalo 27%
WEEK 7 PROJECTIONS
NY Jets 17% at New England 83%
San Francisco 17% at Denver 83%
Houston 20% at Pittsburgh 80%
Cleveland 30% at Jacksonville 70%
Atlanta 35% at Baltimore 65%
Carolina 35% at Green Bay 65%
Kansas City 35% at San Diego 65%
Miami 35% at Chicago 65%
Cincinnati 45% at Indianapolis 55%
NY Giants 50% at Dallas 50%
Minnesota 52% at Buffalo 48%
Tennessee 50% at Washington 50%
New Orleans 60% at Detroit 40%
Arizona 70% at Oakland 30%
Seattle 77% at St. Louis 23%
WEEK 8 PROJECTIONS
San Diego 18% at Denver 82%
Chicago 22% at New England 78%
Buffalo 25% at NY Jets 75%
Houston 30% at Tennessee 70%
St. Louis 30% at Kansas City 70%
Green Bay 40% at New Orleans 60%
Baltimore 45% at Cincinnati 55%
Indianapolis 40% at Pittsburgh 60%
Oakland 45% at Cleveland 55%
Washington 45% at Dallas 55%
Detroit 50% vs. Atlanta 50%
Minnesota 45% at Tampa Bay 55%
Miami 50% at Jacksonville 50%
Philadelphia 52% at Arizona 48%
Seattle 70% at Carolina 30%
WEEK 9 PROJECTIONS
Oakland 5% at Seattle 95%
Jacksonville 22% at Cincinnati 78%
St. Louis 22% at San Francisco 78%
Washington 43% at Minnesota 57%
Baltimore 45% at Pittsburgh 55%
NY Jets 45% at Kansas City 55%
Denver 45% at New England 55%
San Diego 52% at Miami 48%
Tampa Bay 49% at Cleveland 51%
Arizona 57% at Dallas 43%
Indianapolis 57% at NY Giants 43%
New Orleans 57% at Carolina 43%
Philadelphia 70% at Houston 30%
WEEK 10 PROJECTIONS
NY Giants 10% at Seattle 90%
Cleveland 15% at Cincinnati 85%
St. Louis 22% at Arizona 78%
San Francisco 25% at New Orleans 75%
Carolina 30% at Philadelphia 70%
Tennessee 35% at Baltimore 65%
Chicago 40% at Green Bay 60%
Miami 43% at Detroit 57%
Dallas 50% vs. Jacksonville 50%
Pittsburgh 52% at NY Jets 48%
Atlanta 53% at Tampa Bay 47%
Kansas City 57% at Buffalo 43%
Denver 80% at Oakland 20%
WEEK 11 PROJECTIONS
Oakland 15% at San Diego 85%
Buffalo 25% at Miami 75%
Minnesota 25% at Chicago 75%
Cincinnati 30% at New Orleans 70%
Atlanta 40% at Carolina 60%
Detroit 43% at Arizona 57%
Tampa Bay 43% at Washington 57%
Philadelphia 45% at Green Bay 55%
Houston 50% at Cleveland 50%
Pittsburgh 52% at Tennessee 48%
San Francisco 55% at NY Giants 45%
New England 60% at Indianapolis 40%
Seattle 70% at Kansas City 30%
Denver 75% at St. Louis 25%
WEEK 12 PROJECTIONS
Arizona 15% at Seattle 85%
Miami 15% at Denver 85%
Detroit 18% at New England 82%
Cleveland 20% at Atlanta 80%
St. Louis 20% at San Diego 80%
Tampa Bay 20% at Chicago 80%
Jacksonville 22% at Indianapolis 78%
Tennessee 22% at Philadelphia 78%
Washington 25% at San Francisco 75%
Baltimore 30% at New Orleans 70%
Dallas 43% at NY Giants 57%
NY Jets 57% at Buffalo 43%
Cincinnati 63% at Houston 37%
Green Bay 60% at Minnesota 40%
Kansas City 62% at Oakland 38%
WEEK 13 PROJECTIONS
Washington 22% at Indianapolis 78%
Oakland 35% at St. Louis 65%
Cleveland 40% at Buffalo 60%
Miami 45% at NY Jets 55%
San Diego 45% at Baltimore 55%
NY Giants 50% at Jacksonville 50%
Arizona 50% at Atlanta 50%
Chicago 45% at Detroit 55%
Carolina 52% at Minnesota 48%
New England 53% at Green Bay 47%
New Orleans 50% at Pittsburgh 50%
Tennessee 60% at Houston 40%
Cincinnati 63% at Tampa Bay 37%
Philadelphia 65% at Dallas 35%
Denver 70% at Kansas City 30%
Seattle 65% at San Francisco 35%
WEEK 14 PROJECTIONS
Buffalo 5% at Denver 95%
Dallas 22% at Chicago 78%
Atlanta 25% at Green Bay 75%
Carolina 25% at New Orleans 75%
Tampa Bay 25% at Detroit 75%
Kansas City 40% at Arizona 60%
NY Giants 40% at Tennessee 60%
Houston 43% at Jacksonville 57%
St. Louis 43% at Washington 57%
Pittsburgh 45% at Cincinnati 55%
NY Jets 50% at Minnesota 50%
Baltimore 50% at Miami 50%
New England 60% at San Diego 40%
Seattle 56% at Philadelphia 44%
San Francisco 68% at Oakland 32%
Indianapolis 65% at Cleveland 35%
WEEK 15 PROJECTIONS
San Francisco 15% at Seattle 85%
Dallas 17% at Philadelphia 83%
Miami 17% at New England 83%
Houston 20% at Indianapolis 80%
Oakland 20% at Kansas City 80%
Jacksonville 22% at Baltimore 78%
Tampa Bay 22% at Carolina 78%
Minnesota 35% at Detroit 65%
Washington 43% at NY Giants 57%
NY Jets 45% at Tennessee 55%
Pittsburgh 52% at Atlanta 48%
New Orleans 53% at Chicago 47%
Arizona 60% at St. Louis 40%
Denver 60% at San Diego 40%
Cincinnati 70% at Cleveland 30%
Green Bay 70% at Buffalo 30%
WEEK 16 PROJECTIONS
Cleveland 17% at Carolina 83%
Atlanta 20% at New Orleans 80%
Kansas City 35% at Pittsburgh 65%
Detroit 40% at Chicago 60%
Minnesota 40% at Miami 60%
San Diego 50% at San Francisco 50%
Buffalo 50% at Oakland 50%
NY Giants 45% at St. Louis 55%
Tennessee 50% at Jacksonville 50%
Indianapolis 60% at Dallas 40%
Baltimore 62% at Houston 38%
Denver 65% at Cincinnati 35%
Green Bay 65% at Tampa Bay 35%
New England 65% at NY Jets 35%
Philadelphia 65% at Washington 35%
Seattle 70% at Arizona 30%
WEEK 17 PROJECTIONS
Oakland 5% at Denver 95%
St. Louis 5% at Seattle 95%
Buffalo 10% at New England 90%
Cleveland 15% at Baltimore 85%
Detroit 30% at Green Bay 70%
Arizona 45% at San Francisco 55%
Cincinnati 45% at Pittsburgh 55%
Dallas 45% at Washington 55%
NY Jets 45% at Miami 55%
Jacksonville 50% at Houston 50%
Carolina 45% at Atlanta 55%
Indianapolis 50% at Tennessee 50%
San Diego 50% at Kansas City 50%
Chicago 57% at Minnesota 43%
Philadelphia 65% at NY Giants 35%
New Orleans 70% at Tampa Bay 30%