If you want a great quarterback – a difference maker – you better draft a great one. This position is different from running back and wide receiver. You’re far less likely to have a franchise guy fall into your lap late in a draft or off the waiver wire.
The guys who put up the great numbers – the guys with a chance to put up 5,000 yards and 35-plus touchdowns – are the guys that everyone knows about. This isn’t like a running back, where Jamaal Charles blows out his knee in Week 2 and Knile Davis becomes the league’s most productive running back.
I showed some running back numbers yesterday, where I outlined how over a third of top-10 running backs are guys who weren’t top-20 backs the previous year.
But look at quarterbacks. At this position, we’re really look for top-5 guys. That’s what you have in mind when you invest a first- or second-round pick in a signal caller.
And especially recently, the great guys have been the guys we all know about.
In the last five years, 80 percent of top-5 quarterbacks have been guys who were top-10 quarterbacks the previous year. The exceptions can be ticked off on one hand:
- 2009 Matt Schaub moves up from injury-shortened season in which he was 21st.
- 2010 Michael Vick shocks everyone, replacing Kevin Kolb and putting up a legendary season.
- 2011 Cam Newton plays way better as a rookie than anyone expected.
- 2011 Matthew Stafford comes off injury-shortened season to put up big numbers for first time, but it was pretty apparent in the preseason that he would be good.
- 2013 Andy Dalton moves up from 12th to 3rd.
This is a far more predictable position than the others. Looking at the last 10 years (so now, 50 great quarterbacks), I’m seeing 23 of those guys were top-5 quarterbacks the previous year. Almost half.
Slightly over half (26 of 50) were top 6 quarterbacks the previous year, and 68 percent (34 of 50) were at least top-10 quarterback.
Only 12 of the 50 came from outside the top 15, and three of those were guys everyone knew about. Stafford in 2011. Aaron Rodgers in 2008, was clearly going to be very good replacing Favre. And in 2007, Tony Romo had put up a nice partial season after replacing Drew Bledsoe. So it’s really only 9 of 50 who came from kind of off the radar.
Here’s the year-by-year, with players outside the top 10 shaded in bold. Scoring system is 6 for touchdowns, 1 for every 20 passing yards, 1 for every 10 rushing yards and 4 for TD passes.
WHERE TOP QUARTERBACKS FROM 2013 CAME FROM | ||
---|---|---|
Rk | Player | Prev Yr |
1. | Peyton Manning | 6th |
2. | Drew Brees | 1st |
3. | Andy Dalton | 12th |
4. | Matthew Stafford | 8th |
5. | Cam Newton | 4th |
WHERE TOP QUARTERBACKS FROM 2012 CAME FROM | ||
---|---|---|
Rk | Player | Prev Yr |
1. | Drew Brees | 1st |
2. | Aaron Rodgers | 2nd |
3. | Tom Brady | 3rd |
4. | Cam Newton | 4th |
5. | Matt Ryan | 8th |
WHERE TOP QUARTERBACKS FROM 2011 CAME FROM | ||
---|---|---|
Rk | Player | Prev Yr |
1. | Drew Brees | 2nd |
2. | Aaron Rodgers | 1st |
3. | Tom Brady | 5th |
4. | Cam Newton | college |
5. | Matthew Stafford | 37th |
WHERE TOP QUARTERBACKS FROM 2010 CAME FROM | ||
---|---|---|
Rk | Player | Prev Yr |
1. | Peyton Manning | 4th |
2. | Aaron Rodgers | 1st |
3. | Philip Rivers | 9th |
4. | Drew Brees | 2nd |
5. | Michael Vick | 41st |
WHERE TOP QUARTERBACKS FROM 2009 CAME FROM | ||
---|---|---|
Rk | Player | Prev Yr |
1. | Aaron Rodgers | 2nd |
2. | Drew Brees | 1st |
3. | Matt Schaub | 21st |
4. | Peyton Manning | 6th |
5. | Tony Romo | 10th |
WHERE TOP QUARTERBACKS FROM 2008 CAME FROM | ||
---|---|---|
Rk | Player | Prev Yr |
1. | Drew Brees | 4th |
2. | Aaron Rodgers | 50th |
3. | Jay Cutler | 12th |
4. | Kurt Warner | 10th |
5. | Philip Rivers | 15th |
WHERE TOP QUARTERBACKS FROM 2007 CAME FROM | ||
---|---|---|
Rk | Player | Prev Yr |
1. | Tom Brady | 6th |
2. | Tony Romo | 16th |
3. | Peyton Manning | 1st |
4. | Drew Brees | 2nd |
5. | Derek Anderson | 37th |
WHERE TOP QUARTERBACKS FROM 2006 CAME FROM | ||
---|---|---|
Rk | Player | Prev Yr |
1. | Peyton Manning | 3rd |
2. | Drew Brees | 7th |
3. | Jon Kitna | 54th |
4. | Michael Vick | 10th |
5. | Carson Palmer | 1st |
WHERE TOP QUARTERBACKS FROM 2005 CAME FROM | ||
---|---|---|
Rk | Player | Prev Yr |
1. | Carson Palmer | 19th |
2. | Tom Brady | 10th |
3. | Peyton Manning | 2nd |
4. | Eli Manning | 35th |
5. | Drew Bledsoe | 20th |
WHERE TOP QUARTERBACKS FROM 2004 CAME FROM | ||
---|---|---|
Rk | Player | Prev Yr |
1. | Daunte Culpepper | 1st |
2. | Peyton Manning | 2nd |
3. | Donovan McNabb | 13th |
4. | Trent Green | 4th |
5. | Jake Plummer | 20th |
—Ian Allan