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Franchise quarterbacks

Quarterbacks more reliable than RB and WR

If you want a great quarterback – a difference maker – you better draft a great one. This position is different from running back and wide receiver. You’re far less likely to have a franchise guy fall into your lap late in a draft or off the waiver wire.

The guys who put up the great numbers – the guys with a chance to put up 5,000 yards and 35-plus touchdowns – are the guys that everyone knows about. This isn’t like a running back, where Jamaal Charles blows out his knee in Week 2 and Knile Davis becomes the league’s most productive running back.

I showed some running back numbers yesterday, where I outlined how over a third of top-10 running backs are guys who weren’t top-20 backs the previous year.

But look at quarterbacks. At this position, we’re really look for top-5 guys. That’s what you have in mind when you invest a first- or second-round pick in a signal caller.

And especially recently, the great guys have been the guys we all know about.

In the last five years, 80 percent of top-5 quarterbacks have been guys who were top-10 quarterbacks the previous year. The exceptions can be ticked off on one hand:

  • 2009 Matt Schaub moves up from injury-shortened season in which he was 21st.
  • 2010 Michael Vick shocks everyone, replacing Kevin Kolb and putting up a legendary season.
  • 2011 Cam Newton plays way better as a rookie than anyone expected.
  • 2011 Matthew Stafford comes off injury-shortened season to put up big numbers for first time, but it was pretty apparent in the preseason that he would be good.
  • 2013 Andy Dalton moves up from 12th to 3rd.

This is a far more predictable position than the others. Looking at the last 10 years (so now, 50 great quarterbacks), I’m seeing 23 of those guys were top-5 quarterbacks the previous year. Almost half.

Slightly over half (26 of 50) were top 6 quarterbacks the previous year, and 68 percent (34 of 50) were at least top-10 quarterback.

Only 12 of the 50 came from outside the top 15, and three of those were guys everyone knew about. Stafford in 2011. Aaron Rodgers in 2008, was clearly going to be very good replacing Favre. And in 2007, Tony Romo had put up a nice partial season after replacing Drew Bledsoe. So it’s really only 9 of 50 who came from kind of off the radar.

Here’s the year-by-year, with players outside the top 10 shaded in bold. Scoring system is 6 for touchdowns, 1 for every 20 passing yards, 1 for every 10 rushing yards and 4 for TD passes.

WHERE TOP QUARTERBACKS FROM 2013 CAME FROM
RkPlayerPrev Yr
1.Peyton Manning6th
2.Drew Brees1st
3.Andy Dalton12th
4.Matthew Stafford8th
5.Cam Newton4th
WHERE TOP QUARTERBACKS FROM 2012 CAME FROM
RkPlayerPrev Yr
1.Drew Brees1st
2.Aaron Rodgers2nd
3.Tom Brady3rd
4.Cam Newton4th
5.Matt Ryan8th
WHERE TOP QUARTERBACKS FROM 2011 CAME FROM
RkPlayerPrev Yr
1.Drew Brees2nd
2.Aaron Rodgers1st
3.Tom Brady5th
4.Cam Newtoncollege
5.Matthew Stafford37th
WHERE TOP QUARTERBACKS FROM 2010 CAME FROM
RkPlayerPrev Yr
1.Peyton Manning4th
2.Aaron Rodgers1st
3.Philip Rivers9th
4.Drew Brees2nd
5.Michael Vick41st
WHERE TOP QUARTERBACKS FROM 2009 CAME FROM
RkPlayerPrev Yr
1.Aaron Rodgers2nd
2.Drew Brees1st
3.Matt Schaub21st
4.Peyton Manning6th
5.Tony Romo10th
WHERE TOP QUARTERBACKS FROM 2008 CAME FROM
RkPlayerPrev Yr
1.Drew Brees4th
2.Aaron Rodgers50th
3.Jay Cutler12th
4.Kurt Warner10th
5.Philip Rivers15th
WHERE TOP QUARTERBACKS FROM 2007 CAME FROM
RkPlayerPrev Yr
1.Tom Brady6th
2.Tony Romo16th
3.Peyton Manning1st
4.Drew Brees2nd
5.Derek Anderson37th
WHERE TOP QUARTERBACKS FROM 2006 CAME FROM
RkPlayerPrev Yr
1.Peyton Manning3rd
2.Drew Brees7th
3.Jon Kitna54th
4.Michael Vick10th
5.Carson Palmer1st
WHERE TOP QUARTERBACKS FROM 2005 CAME FROM
RkPlayerPrev Yr
1.Carson Palmer19th
2.Tom Brady10th
3.Peyton Manning2nd
4.Eli Manning35th
5.Drew Bledsoe20th
WHERE TOP QUARTERBACKS FROM 2004 CAME FROM
RkPlayerPrev Yr
1.Daunte Culpepper1st
2.Peyton Manning2nd
3.Donovan McNabb13th
4.Trent Green4th
5.Jake Plummer20th

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index