We must stay patient with running backs. A running game takes time to develop. The offensive line needs to develop chemistry and timing, and the running back needs to learn how to properly hit holes.
I heard Seattle’s offensive line coach, Tom Cable, saying something about this a few years back. He was saying not to worry, and that the ground game was getting close. And sure enough, Seattle was a lot better running the ball in the second half of that year.
When looking for really big rushing games, I notice, they are more likely to occur in the second half of the season. And more likely in December than November.
Consider, for example, all games in which an individual running back went over 150 rushing yards. The most popular week for this to occur is Week 17 – the final week of the season. Next in line is Week 14. The have been fewer than half as many of those games, meanwhile, in Weeks 1, 2, 4 and 5.
Look at the frequency of such games in the 32-team era. I’ve got them week-by-week below. For all weeks with 30 or more such games, I’ve got them in bold. In the final five weeks of the season, there have been 173 of those games in the last dozen seasons. There have been only 101 (barely more than half) in the first five weeks.
Here are the league-wide numbers since 2002:
| GAMES WITH 150-YARD RUSHERS | |
|---|---|
| Week | No |
| Week 1 | 20 |
| Week 2 | 19 |
| Week 3 | 24 |
| Week 4 | 20 |
| Week 5 | 18 |
| Week 6 | 23 |
| Week 7 | 32 |
| Week 8 | 28 |
| Week 9 | 32 |
| Week 10 | 22 |
| Week 11 | 18 |
| Week 12 | 30 |
| Week 13 | 32 |
| Week 14 | 39 |
| Week 15 | 31 |
| Week 16 | 27 |
| Week 17 | 44 |
—Ian Allan