Fantasy Index

Scheduletron

Strength of schedule

Denver's schedule gets a lot easier, while Pittsburgh's gets harder

Is it better to have an easy schedule at the start of the year, allowing your fantasy team to get off to a good start? Or are you more interested in having those easy games late, helping your team finish strong? Here’s a look at both.

Starting with wins for each team in the first half of the season (that is, the first eight games for each team, which is Week 8 for some teams but Week 9 for most). The Steelers, Saints and Browns project to play the easiest early schedules. Denver and the two Missouri teams project to play the hardest schedules early.

SCHEDULE FOR FIRST EIGHT GAMES (Wins)
TeamWLTPct
Pittsburgh49790.383
New Orleans52742.414
Cleveland54740.422
Houston54740.422
Tennessee54740.422
NY Giants55730.430
Philadelphia56720.438
Buffalo59681.465
Minnesota59681.465
Tampa Bay59681.465
Jacksonville60680.469
Washington61670.477
Atlanta61661.480
New England61661.480
Dallas62660.484
Detroit61652.484
Miami62651.488
Indianapolis63650.492
Seattle64631.504
Baltimore65630.508
Arizona66620.516
Cincinnati66620.516
Oakland66620.516
Carolina67601.527
NY Jets67601.527
San Diego69590.539
Chicago70571.551
Green Bay72551.566
San Francisco74540.578
St. Louis75521.590
Kansas City76520.594
Denver86420.672

Continuing to look at those first eight games, the Texans, Saints and the two New York teams project to face the weakest defenses. They’ll each play eight games against opponents that (on average) allowed over 25 points per game last year. The Broncos, Rams, Ravens and Raiders project to play the toughest defenses in those first eight games.

SCHEDULE FOR FIRST EIGHT GAMES (Points)
TeamPoints
Houston25.2
NY Jets25.1
NY Giants25.0
New Orleans25.0
Miami24.9
Buffalo24.8
Arizona24.6
Seattle24.6
Tennessee24.5
New England24.5
Cleveland24.0
Atlanta24.0
Indianapolis24.0
Detroit23.9
San Francisco23.8
Jacksonville23.7
Philadelphia23.7
Minnesota23.7
Washington23.5
Pittsburgh23.5
Tampa Bay23.1
San Diego22.9
Carolina22.9
Cincinnati22.6
Dallas22.2
Chicago22.1
Green Bay22.1
Kansas City22.1
Oakland21.9
Baltimore21.8
St. Louis21.6
Denver19.9

Setting aside those first eight games completely and looking only at the final eight games for each team, the Colts, Ravens and Panthers project to play the easiest schedules. The Raiders, Seahawks and Chargers project to play the hardest schedules.

SCHEDULE FOR LAST EIGHT GAMES (Wins)
TeamWLTPct
Indianapolis47810.367
Baltimore53750.414
Carolina53741.418
Cincinnati54740.422
Jacksonville56720.438
Chicago55703.441
Green Bay56711.441
Tennessee58700.453
Houston59690.461
Denver60680.469
Minnesota62651.488
Dallas63650.492
Detroit63632.500
NY Giants64640.500
Tampa Bay64631.504
Washington64631.504
Cleveland65630.508
NY Jets65621.512
Philadelphia66611.520
Kansas City67610.523
New Orleans67610.523
Miami67601.527
Buffalo68591.535
St. Louis69590.539
Atlanta69581.543
San Francisco70580.547
New England70571.551
Pittsburgh71570.555
Arizona74540.578
San Diego75530.586
Seattle79490.617
Oakland82460.641

Continuing to look at the final eight games but now looking at just points, the easiest schedules seem to belong to the Colts, Packers and Bears. (Again, this is just based on how defenses performed last year – many of those defenses no doubt will change in 2014, like Kansas City did last year). Hardest schedules (for points) in the final eight should belong to Arizona, Seattle, Atlanta and San Francisco.

SCHEDULE FOR LAST EIGHT GAMES (Points)
TeamPoints
Indianapolis25.7
Green Bay25.6
Chicago25.5
Detroit25.4
Dallas25.1
Minnesota25.0
Carolina24.6
Miami24.3
Tennessee24.1
Cincinnati24.0
Houston23.9
Tampa Bay23.9
Buffalo23.8
Jacksonville23.8
Washington23.7
Baltimore23.6
Philadelphia23.5
New England23.4
NY Giants23.4
Kansas City23.2
Denver23.1
St. Louis23.0
NY Jets22.9
New Orleans22.3
San Diego22.0
Cleveland21.9
Pittsburgh21.7
Oakland21.7
San Francisco21.5
Atlanta21.1
Seattle20.5
Arizona20.2

Recapping what we saw in the above charts, we can now blend the two. Which teams see the largest swings? The Broncos have the schedule that improves the most. The eight teams they’ll face in Nov./Dec. won 26 fewer games than the eight they’ll play in Sept./Oct.

SCHEDULES GETTING OVER 10 GAMES EASIER
TeamWins
Denver26
Green Bay16
Indianapolis16
Carolina14
Chicago14
Baltimore12
Cincinnati12

The Steelers are the opposite of the Broncos. They’ll apparently tend to play most of their hard games late. Their final eight games are against teams that won 22 more games than those that Pittsburgh will play in its first eight.

SCHEDULES GETTING OVER 10 GAMES HARDER
TeamWins
Pittsburgh22
Oakland16
Seattle14.5
New Orleans14
Cleveland11
Philadelphia10.5

It looks like Green Bay, Chicago and Denver will face easier defenses in the second half of the season. Their opponents allowed over 3 more points per game than the teams in the first half of the schedule.

SCHEDULES GETTING OVER 2 POINTS EASIER
TeamPoints
Green Bay3.5
Chicago3.4
Denver3.2
Dallas2.9

Arizona and Seattle apparently will play harder schedules in the second half of the season. For both Cardinals and Seahawks, they’ll be facing defenses that allowed over 4 fewer points per game last year than the teams they’ll be playing in Weeks 1-8.

SCHEDULES GETTING OVER 2 POINTS HARDER
TeamPoints
Arizona4.4
Seattle4.0
Atlanta2.8
New Orleans2.7
San Francisco2.3
NY Jets2.2
Cleveland2.1

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index