Is it better to have an easy schedule at the start of the year, allowing your fantasy team to get off to a good start? Or are you more interested in having those easy games late, helping your team finish strong? Here’s a look at both.
Starting with wins for each team in the first half of the season (that is, the first eight games for each team, which is Week 8 for some teams but Week 9 for most). The Steelers, Saints and Browns project to play the easiest early schedules. Denver and the two Missouri teams project to play the hardest schedules early.
SCHEDULE FOR FIRST EIGHT GAMES (Wins) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Pittsburgh | 49 | 79 | 0 | .383 |
New Orleans | 52 | 74 | 2 | .414 |
Cleveland | 54 | 74 | 0 | .422 |
Houston | 54 | 74 | 0 | .422 |
Tennessee | 54 | 74 | 0 | .422 |
NY Giants | 55 | 73 | 0 | .430 |
Philadelphia | 56 | 72 | 0 | .438 |
Buffalo | 59 | 68 | 1 | .465 |
Minnesota | 59 | 68 | 1 | .465 |
Tampa Bay | 59 | 68 | 1 | .465 |
Jacksonville | 60 | 68 | 0 | .469 |
Washington | 61 | 67 | 0 | .477 |
Atlanta | 61 | 66 | 1 | .480 |
New England | 61 | 66 | 1 | .480 |
Dallas | 62 | 66 | 0 | .484 |
Detroit | 61 | 65 | 2 | .484 |
Miami | 62 | 65 | 1 | .488 |
Indianapolis | 63 | 65 | 0 | .492 |
Seattle | 64 | 63 | 1 | .504 |
Baltimore | 65 | 63 | 0 | .508 |
Arizona | 66 | 62 | 0 | .516 |
Cincinnati | 66 | 62 | 0 | .516 |
Oakland | 66 | 62 | 0 | .516 |
Carolina | 67 | 60 | 1 | .527 |
NY Jets | 67 | 60 | 1 | .527 |
San Diego | 69 | 59 | 0 | .539 |
Chicago | 70 | 57 | 1 | .551 |
Green Bay | 72 | 55 | 1 | .566 |
San Francisco | 74 | 54 | 0 | .578 |
St. Louis | 75 | 52 | 1 | .590 |
Kansas City | 76 | 52 | 0 | .594 |
Denver | 86 | 42 | 0 | .672 |
Continuing to look at those first eight games, the Texans, Saints and the two New York teams project to face the weakest defenses. They’ll each play eight games against opponents that (on average) allowed over 25 points per game last year. The Broncos, Rams, Ravens and Raiders project to play the toughest defenses in those first eight games.
SCHEDULE FOR FIRST EIGHT GAMES (Points) | |
---|---|
Team | Points |
Houston | 25.2 |
NY Jets | 25.1 |
NY Giants | 25.0 |
New Orleans | 25.0 |
Miami | 24.9 |
Buffalo | 24.8 |
Arizona | 24.6 |
Seattle | 24.6 |
Tennessee | 24.5 |
New England | 24.5 |
Cleveland | 24.0 |
Atlanta | 24.0 |
Indianapolis | 24.0 |
Detroit | 23.9 |
San Francisco | 23.8 |
Jacksonville | 23.7 |
Philadelphia | 23.7 |
Minnesota | 23.7 |
Washington | 23.5 |
Pittsburgh | 23.5 |
Tampa Bay | 23.1 |
San Diego | 22.9 |
Carolina | 22.9 |
Cincinnati | 22.6 |
Dallas | 22.2 |
Chicago | 22.1 |
Green Bay | 22.1 |
Kansas City | 22.1 |
Oakland | 21.9 |
Baltimore | 21.8 |
St. Louis | 21.6 |
Denver | 19.9 |
Setting aside those first eight games completely and looking only at the final eight games for each team, the Colts, Ravens and Panthers project to play the easiest schedules. The Raiders, Seahawks and Chargers project to play the hardest schedules.
SCHEDULE FOR LAST EIGHT GAMES (Wins) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Indianapolis | 47 | 81 | 0 | .367 |
Baltimore | 53 | 75 | 0 | .414 |
Carolina | 53 | 74 | 1 | .418 |
Cincinnati | 54 | 74 | 0 | .422 |
Jacksonville | 56 | 72 | 0 | .438 |
Chicago | 55 | 70 | 3 | .441 |
Green Bay | 56 | 71 | 1 | .441 |
Tennessee | 58 | 70 | 0 | .453 |
Houston | 59 | 69 | 0 | .461 |
Denver | 60 | 68 | 0 | .469 |
Minnesota | 62 | 65 | 1 | .488 |
Dallas | 63 | 65 | 0 | .492 |
Detroit | 63 | 63 | 2 | .500 |
NY Giants | 64 | 64 | 0 | .500 |
Tampa Bay | 64 | 63 | 1 | .504 |
Washington | 64 | 63 | 1 | .504 |
Cleveland | 65 | 63 | 0 | .508 |
NY Jets | 65 | 62 | 1 | .512 |
Philadelphia | 66 | 61 | 1 | .520 |
Kansas City | 67 | 61 | 0 | .523 |
New Orleans | 67 | 61 | 0 | .523 |
Miami | 67 | 60 | 1 | .527 |
Buffalo | 68 | 59 | 1 | .535 |
St. Louis | 69 | 59 | 0 | .539 |
Atlanta | 69 | 58 | 1 | .543 |
San Francisco | 70 | 58 | 0 | .547 |
New England | 70 | 57 | 1 | .551 |
Pittsburgh | 71 | 57 | 0 | .555 |
Arizona | 74 | 54 | 0 | .578 |
San Diego | 75 | 53 | 0 | .586 |
Seattle | 79 | 49 | 0 | .617 |
Oakland | 82 | 46 | 0 | .641 |
Continuing to look at the final eight games but now looking at just points, the easiest schedules seem to belong to the Colts, Packers and Bears. (Again, this is just based on how defenses performed last year – many of those defenses no doubt will change in 2014, like Kansas City did last year). Hardest schedules (for points) in the final eight should belong to Arizona, Seattle, Atlanta and San Francisco.
SCHEDULE FOR LAST EIGHT GAMES (Points) | |
---|---|
Team | Points |
Indianapolis | 25.7 |
Green Bay | 25.6 |
Chicago | 25.5 |
Detroit | 25.4 |
Dallas | 25.1 |
Minnesota | 25.0 |
Carolina | 24.6 |
Miami | 24.3 |
Tennessee | 24.1 |
Cincinnati | 24.0 |
Houston | 23.9 |
Tampa Bay | 23.9 |
Buffalo | 23.8 |
Jacksonville | 23.8 |
Washington | 23.7 |
Baltimore | 23.6 |
Philadelphia | 23.5 |
New England | 23.4 |
NY Giants | 23.4 |
Kansas City | 23.2 |
Denver | 23.1 |
St. Louis | 23.0 |
NY Jets | 22.9 |
New Orleans | 22.3 |
San Diego | 22.0 |
Cleveland | 21.9 |
Pittsburgh | 21.7 |
Oakland | 21.7 |
San Francisco | 21.5 |
Atlanta | 21.1 |
Seattle | 20.5 |
Arizona | 20.2 |
Recapping what we saw in the above charts, we can now blend the two. Which teams see the largest swings? The Broncos have the schedule that improves the most. The eight teams they’ll face in Nov./Dec. won 26 fewer games than the eight they’ll play in Sept./Oct.
SCHEDULES GETTING OVER 10 GAMES EASIER | |
---|---|
Team | Wins |
Denver | 26 |
Green Bay | 16 |
Indianapolis | 16 |
Carolina | 14 |
Chicago | 14 |
Baltimore | 12 |
Cincinnati | 12 |
The Steelers are the opposite of the Broncos. They’ll apparently tend to play most of their hard games late. Their final eight games are against teams that won 22 more games than those that Pittsburgh will play in its first eight.
SCHEDULES GETTING OVER 10 GAMES HARDER | |
---|---|
Team | Wins |
Pittsburgh | 22 |
Oakland | 16 |
Seattle | 14.5 |
New Orleans | 14 |
Cleveland | 11 |
Philadelphia | 10.5 |
It looks like Green Bay, Chicago and Denver will face easier defenses in the second half of the season. Their opponents allowed over 3 more points per game than the teams in the first half of the schedule.
SCHEDULES GETTING OVER 2 POINTS EASIER | |
---|---|
Team | Points |
Green Bay | 3.5 |
Chicago | 3.4 |
Denver | 3.2 |
Dallas | 2.9 |
Arizona and Seattle apparently will play harder schedules in the second half of the season. For both Cardinals and Seahawks, they’ll be facing defenses that allowed over 4 fewer points per game last year than the teams they’ll be playing in Weeks 1-8.
SCHEDULES GETTING OVER 2 POINTS HARDER | |
---|---|
Team | Points |
Arizona | 4.4 |
Seattle | 4.0 |
Atlanta | 2.8 |
New Orleans | 2.7 |
San Francisco | 2.3 |
NY Jets | 2.2 |
Cleveland | 2.1 |
—Ian Allan