Yesterday I posted a chart showing which teams will play the easiest and hardest schedules in the first half and the second half of the season. The Broncos, for example, have a really hard schedule in the first half of the season, then it gets a lot easier. The Steelers, meanwhile, play all of their softer games early in the year.
“Supposedly” I should say. Those charts are based on what teams did last year, and we know many teams will be different. Every year, that is, last place teams move up into first and first-place teams crash down to last.
Anywho, it got me to thinking. Suppose I could build a time machine and sneak ahead to January 2015. Then I could look backwards and see which teams actually did play easier (and harder) schedule. Could I then use that information to dominate my fantasy league?
Looking at the numbers from last year, I don’t think so.
In the 2013 season, there were seven teams whose schedules got at least 2 points better in the second half of the season. None of them seemed to benefit much from scheduling.
Running them down one by one:
Houston The opponents they saw in Games 9-16 allowed 4.6 more points per game than the eight teams they saw in their first eight games, but the Texans in those final eight games averaged 2 fewer points per game.
Tennessee Opponents allowed 3.8 more points per game. Titans themselves averaged 2 more points per week, which isn’t that much.
Dallas Opponents allowed over 3 more points per game, but Cowboys scored less.
Buffalo Similar to Dallas. Scoring declined.
Jacksonville Averaged over 9 more points per game, but probably had little to do with scheduling. More a case of the team figuring out what worked.
Green Bay Team averaged 6 fewer points per game (with Aaron Rodgers hurt).
Philadelphia Team averaged 11 more points per game, but I don’t think that was scheduling. That was due more to Nick Foles playing a lot better than Michael Vick.
| TEAMS WITH EASIER SCHEDULES | ||
|---|---|---|
| Team (Pts) | G 1-8 | G 9-16 |
| Houston (4.6) | 18.3 | 16.3 |
| Tennessee (3.8) | 21.6 | 23.6 |
| Dallas (3.1) | 28.8 | 26.1 |
| Buffalo (3.0) | 22.0 | 20.4 |
| Jacksonville (2.4) | 10.8 | 20.1 |
| Green Bay (2.0) | 29.0 | 23.1 |
| Philadelphia (2.0) | 22.0 | 33.3 |
Previously I looked at the seven teams playing easier schedules in their final eight games. Flipping it around, here are the seven who’s schedules got a lot harder:
San Diego Scoring was up by 1.5 points per game even though their opponents were allowing 3.9 fewer points per game.
New Orleans OK. Here’s one. Opponents allowed 3.8 fewer points per game, and Saints declined by 2.2.
Denver Here’s another fit. Opponents allowed 2.3 fewer points and Denver’s schedule was down by 10 per game.
Pittsburgh Schedule got harder, but team started playing better, averaging over 8 more points per game.
Cincinnati Scheduling indicated they should have dropped by 2 points per game, but they improved by over 4.
Kansas City Schedule got harder by team averaged almost 6 more points per game.
Carolina This one fits. Schedule was harder and team averaged over 5 fewer points per game.
RECAPPING
I was working with perfect information, and I focused on 14 teams. The seven teams who’s schedules improved the most (got easier) and the seven whose schedules definitely got harder. If I had used that info to make trades and select players different, I would have been right with six of those teams, and would have been wrong with eight of them.
Strength of schedule info, it seems, can be used on the margins in some limited situations but shouldn’t be a big part of your draft day strategy.
—Ian Allan