There are some interesting rookie tight ends; Eric Ebron, Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Jace Amaro, certainly, will be selected in a lot of fantasy leagues.
But as I play around with the numbers, I get the feeling that your odds are better of hitting on a young tight end if you focus on one of last year’s rookies – Zach Ertz, Tyler Eifert, Travis Kelce or Jordan Reed.
Tight end is a position where it tends to take some time to figure out what’s going on. Even more so than at wide receiver or running backs.
Here are the top 20 rookie tight ends of this century (2000-2013). As a group, these guys averaged 40 catches, 460 yards and 4 TDs in their first season.
TOP ROOKIE TIGHT ENDS SINCE 2000 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | No | Yds | TD | Pts |
2010 | Rob Gronkowski | 42 | 546 | 10 | 114.6 |
2002 | Jeremy Shockey | 74 | 894 | 2 | 101.4 |
2008 | John Carlson | 55 | 627 | 5 | 92.7 |
2005 | Heath Miller | 39 | 459 | 6 | 81.9 |
2010 | Tony Moeaki | 47 | 556 | 3 | 73.6 |
2008 | Dustin Keller | 48 | 535 | 3 | 71.5 |
2010 | Jermaine Gresham | 52 | 471 | 4 | 71.1 |
2013 | Zach Ertz | 36 | 469 | 4 | 70.9 |
2012 | Dwayne Allen | 45 | 521 | 3 | 70.1 |
2013 | Jordan Reed | 45 | 499 | 3 | 67.9 |
2004 | Chris Cooley | 37 | 314 | 6 | 67.4 |
2010 | Jimmy Graham | 31 | 356 | 5 | 65.6 |
2007 | Zach Miller | 44 | 444 | 3 | 62.4 |
2013 | Tyler Eifert | 39 | 445 | 2 | 56.5 |
2002 | Doug Jolley | 32 | 409 | 2 | 52.9 |
2006 | Tony Scheffler | 18 | 286 | 4 | 52.6 |
2008 | Martellus Bennett | 20 | 283 | 4 | 52.3 |
2007 | Greg Olsen | 39 | 391 | 2 | 51.1 |
2001 | Alge Crumpler | 25 | 330 | 3 | 51.0 |
2005 | Alex Smith | 41 | 367 | 2 | 48.7 |
Total | (20 guys) | 40 | 460 | 4 | 68.8 |
And here are the top 20 second-year tight ends in the same time period. These guys, on average, averaged 19 more catches, 223 more receiving yards and 2 more touchdowns. As a group, they averaged about 50 percent more catches and 50 percent more touchdowns.
TOP SECOND-YEAR TIGHT ENDS SINCE 2000 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | No | Yds | TD | Pts |
2010 | Rob Gronkowski | 90 | 1327 | 17 | 234.7 |
2010 | Jimmy Graham | 99 | 1310 | 11 | 197.0 |
2003 | Jason Witten | 87 | 980 | 6 | 134.0 |
2010 | Aaron Hernandez | 79 | 910 | 7 | 133.0 |
2001 | Todd Heap | 68 | 836 | 6 | 119.6 |
2004 | Chris Cooley | 71 | 774 | 7 | 119.4 |
2011 | Kyle Rudolph | 53 | 493 | 9 | 103.3 |
2008 | John Carlson | 51 | 574 | 7 | 99.4 |
2008 | Jermichael Finley | 55 | 676 | 5 | 97.6 |
2009 | Brandon Pettigrew | 71 | 722 | 4 | 96.2 |
2010 | Jermaine Gresham | 56 | 596 | 6 | 95.6 |
2007 | Greg Olsen | 54 | 574 | 5 | 87.4 |
2008 | Fred Davis | 48 | 509 | 6 | 86.9 |
2000 | Bubba Franks | 36 | 322 | 9 | 86.2 |
2006 | Tony Scheffler | 49 | 549 | 5 | 84.9 |
2012 | Coby Fleener | 52 | 608 | 4 | 84.8 |
2007 | Zach Miller | 56 | 778 | 1 | 83.8 |
2010 | Ed Dickson | 54 | 528 | 5 | 82.8 |
2004 | Ben Troupe | 55 | 530 | 4 | 77.0 |
2011 | Lance Kendricks | 42 | 519 | 4 | 75.9 |
Total | (20 guys) | 59 | 683 | 6 | 104.1 |
As well as Ertz played late last year, I’m thinking he’ll be better than any of this year’s rookie tight ends.
—Ian Allan