Ian Allan answers your fantasy football question. In this edition: Comparing the standard snake draft to the "third-round reversal" alternative. A look behind the curtain at the art/science of crafting player projections. And nervousness about Bishop Sankey.
Question 1
I was perusing the stat projections file on your site (the one updated 7/7), and noticed that you have Geno Smith and Michael Vick projected to score a combined 423 points on the season worksheet. That is about 50 more points than you have projected for Peyton, Brees and Rodgers. I realize that those studs are projected to play one less game than the Jets duo, but the numbers still don't appear to add up. Did you make your Smith/Vick projections after a long weekend in Vegas with Johnny Football, or are my J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets heading to the Super Bowl this year behind Smith/Vick?
Ed Weiss (PARSIPPANY, NJ)
I actually forecast two sets of numbers for each player. The first set reflects how the player will do when he’s starting and used in his regular featured role. Those are the numbers you see on the “per game” lists. When Geno Smith is starting for example, I’ve got him at about 208 passing yards and 20 rushing yards per game, with about 1.28 TD per game – 20.5 per 16 games. Michael Vick I’ve got at 2 fewer passing yards, 10 more rushing yards and slightly fewer touchdowns – 20 per 16 games. That’s one set of numbers. But there are also secondary projections for each player. For many players – like Peyton, Brees and Rodgers – the supplemental numbers are the same. For others, they show how they’ll perform as a backup. The typical backup quarterback is slotted at about 1 percent of the team’s passing production per week, to cover the possibility he’ll be put into the game because of injury or benching. But those numbers are kept behind the curtain, so I do use them for my own purposes at times. After I’ve done my projections, I’ll look at the rankings and add some fluff to those backup numbers to make certain players move higher on the list. In this particular case, I find the winner of the Jets starting job (primarily because of rushing production) to be more compelling as a fantasy option than Teddy Bridgewater or Chad Henne. So to make them move a little higher on my board, I’ve elevated their backup projection. If I left the numbers as if, Bridgewater and Henne might be higher simply because they’re projected to start more games. This is more common at running back, where I might prefer a No. 2 tailback over a 16-game fullback like Marcel Reece. Numerically, Reece will outperform most of the backup tailbacks, but for fantasy purposes, we’re all more interested in the high-upside guy who might be elevated into the starting lineup and put together a month’s worth of quality starts.
Question 2
What do you think of Bishop Sankey? He's under the radar in Tennessee, and he wasn't even selected in one national mock draft I saw. Does he have No. 2 RB potential, and where should he be targeted in a 10-team draft? What do you think of Bishop Sankey? He's under the radar in Tennessee, and he wasn't even selected in one national mock draft I saw. Does he have No. 2 RB potential, and where should he be targeted in a 10-team draft?
Paul Owers (West Palm Beach, FL)
I really like what they’re doing there with their offensive line. They’ve drafted Chance Warmack and Taylor Lewan the last two years. Warmack as a No. 10 pick, and Lewan went 11th. They signed Andy Levitre to a big contract a year ago. They signed Michael Oher this year. Granted, Oher comes off a crappy year with Baltimore, but he’s a guy who’s started and played well in the past – he’s another body to work with (and they’ve got enough depth that I don’t think he’ll start unless they want him to start). They’ve still got Michael Roos at left tackle, and he’s still an above-average left tackle. I don’t think the center, Brian Schwenke, is anything special, but there’s some talent, and Ken Whisenhunt was able to put together a nice running game in San Diego last year, where the running backs probably weren’t any better and the line was definitely worse. The Chargers ranked 5th in rushing in the second half of last season. So in this regard, I have interest in Bishop Sankey. If he in fact wasn’t even selected in a draft, that’s a draft that truly needs to be “mocked”. On the other side of the coin, I am nervous about backs coming out of these spread kind of systems, which is what they ran at Washington last year. Think of LaMichael James, who put up even better numbers in the same kind of offense at Oregon. And to a lesser degree, Kenjon Barner, another stud in that offense (though in fairness, he’s not in the James/Sankey class because he was just a sixth-round pick). James was selected late in the second, just like Sankey, and he hasn’t done jack squat in San Francisco. He’ll probably be dumped before opening day. So part of me worries that there will be learning curve issues with Sankey, and Shonn Greene will be a big part of that offense. Based on the half dozen drafts I’ve seen, my guess is Sankey will be selected before I would seriously consider him.
Question 3
It's almost the preseason so it's time for the "When will Rob Gronkowski be ready to play?" questions to start popping up. My league is a TD-heavy format so a healthy Gronk could make him the top receiver in the league. The risk is his injury history. He was taken at the beginning of the 3rd round last year even with the news he might miss 6 games. Where should I target Gronk in a 12 team league and what type of numbers should I expect?
Benjamin MacLeod (Goffstown, NH)
Supposedly he’s doing pretty well, and he’s on track to play in the first game. I would like to see him play in the preseason. As it becomes more apparent that he’ll be ready, I would make him pretty much interchangeable with Julius Thomas as the No. 2 tight end behind Jimmy Graham.
Question 4
Hello, I play in the largest live fantasy football draft event south of the Ohio River, the Southern Bluegrass Fantasy Football Championship (SBFFC, SBFFC.com). The lineup structure is PPR, 6 points for all touchdowns. Starting lineup is like the FFPC with 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, and 2 FLEX (RB/WR/TE). What draft spot would you prefer to draft from (we buy our draft spot with our $1000 free agent acquisition bidding money, we use 3rd round reversal). And what would your general draft strategy be? Yes, quarterbacks are more valuable but running backs get drafted quick
Brian Harwood ()
I like the third-round reversal concept. For those not familiar with it, it’s a tweak on a regular snake draft. The two formats are identical for all rounds except the third; it gets flopped. And that results in a much leveler playing field. With a snake draft, it’s a huge advantage to selected 1st, 2nd or 3rd, and everyone knows it. With the third-round reversal, it’s more up-in-the-air where you want to select. If you pick last in the first round, then you get to pick 1st in both the second and third. I ran some numbers on it, using my own stat projections (and this scoring system). According to my numbers (and if every owner drafted ideally), the best draft slots would belong to the guys selecting 12th, 11th and 10th. I’ve got them all slightly over 600 bang-for-your-buck points after 10 rounds. The worst spots would belong to Nos. 1, 2 and 3, who would be in the 571-580 range. In the snake draft format, the No. 1 spot is the best (even though it’s not a great year to have that pick), with 605 points. It’s followed by the 2nd-5th spots, which all grade out at 594-597 points. The six worst spots in that kind of draft belong to the 7th-12th spots, which score out at 582-586 each. So actually this year, the snake looks more fair than the third-round reversal, but I believe the opposite is the more typical result. As for your team, I wouldn’t be to each to spend much of your $1,000 on your draft slot. I will guess that you can get one of those final three spots without spending much at all.
As for the league itself, the key (I think) are those two flex spots. A lot of guys tend to want to plug running backs into those positions, but I advise against that. There’s more demand for running backs, so you just end up overpaying for lesser production. You’ll have better results collecting a bunch of receivers who’ll catch 90-100 passes. PPR format. And with the double flex, I think it gives you the flexibility to just forget about positions. Just think of those seven RB-WR-TE as seven field players. Many will make the two running backs the most important of the seven, but I think the correct move is to not worry about them too much. Let them become the least important of those seven spots, and then you can really amass some talent. Don’t worry too much about the running backs; there are guys out there. You’ll fill those positions. I can promise you you’re not going to find any 100-catch wide receivers on the waiver wire. I put together a top 130 for this league, and via my crude math, 11 of the first 16 players selected should be wide receivers. Four running backs and one tight end. The three elite quarterbacks show up at 17th-23rd, then the next two quarterbacks at No. 35.
Question 5
Hey Ian, you're in Seattle, right? Any further updates and/or hunches regarding the Lynch/Michael situation? I've got Michael in a dynasty league & was wondering what his prospects are for 2014. How much, if any, production should I plan on?
Scott Anderson (Lakewood, CO)
They’ve also got Robert Turbin, and I think he’s an above-average tailback, but I think Christine Michael is more dynamic and talented. It will be Michael that becomes the starter post-Lynch, I think we all agree. As for when that occurs, we’ll see. Lynch is 28 years old. For 2015, he’s got a $5.5 million base salary and $2 million in bonuses. Whether he’s on the roster next year, I think, could be dictated by how things transpire. Paul Allen has deep pockets, so if they feel Lynch can still bring it as a 29-year-old a year from now, they could have him back. Or if Michael really rips it up in limited playing time this year, maybe they decide to make the switch to buy themselves some cap room. There’s also the reality that Lynch is a high-contact runner who takes a lot of punishment. It’s tough for those kind of guys to stay healthy for all 16 games.
Question 6
PPR dynasty league. Who to bid on now when most owners aren't looking. WRs & TEs are the same. Who has the best career, Z.Ertz or J.Hunter?
JOHN BENNETT (Chino, CA)
Hunter has the same body type as A.J. Green or a young Randy Moss, and he showed some of the potential last year, simply jumping up and taking balls away from defensive backs who had good coverage. I think he’s the guy, but I believe Ertz will be better this year. He’s a good tight end and was coming on at the end of his rookie year, with 5 TDs in his final eight games (after none in his first nine).
Question 7
I am in a 12-team league where you can keep 3-4 players. Starting lineup is QB, RB, 2 WR, TE, K, Def, 1 Flex. If I hold 4 players my first pick would be in the 5th round and would be somewhere in the range of 15th or 16th overall. If I hold 3 players my first pick would be in the 4th round and be either the 5th or 6th pick overall. I'm leaning towards holding RB Peterson, RB Bernard and RB Martin and seeing what is there at the 5th or 6th pick. This wouldn't be an issue for me but Josh Gordon's situation is up in the air. I don't think I can hold him if he is suspended the whole year but should I hold him if he only misses 8 games? I also have Torrey Smith, Cam Newton, Terrance Williams and Roddy White.
gary beecroft (Edmonds, WA)
Agreed on Gordon. There’s no way you protect him. Even in the unlikely event he’s suspended for only eight games, you’d probably be better off dumping him and getting a higher draft pick. Why is Doug Martin getting protected? If you were to release him, you’d pick even earlier, and I bet you’d get players who are better than Martin. Tampa Bay has other running backs, Michael James and Charles Sims, and I believe they’ll go to more of a committee approach this year. James could be their goal-line back, and Sims could get a lot of work on passing downs. The correct move, I think, is to protect only Peterson and Bernard, and rebuild the team from there.
Question 8
I'm in a 12 team standard scoring league where we start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 Flex, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D. I'm keeping Demaryius Thomas & Julio Jones. Which two of these 3 would you keep? Matt Ryan, CJ Spiller & Larry Fitzgerald (I'm leaning towards Ryan as one of them). Thank you for your help and I love the mag & website!
Jamie Wienstroer ()
Not a huge difference between the two, but I believe I’d go with Fitzgerald. He’s higher than Spiller on my board. That’s three wide receivers, but there’s a flex spot. You’d then be able to address the running back position with those early-round draft picks.
Question 9
I have looked back at my league's history and scoring by draft spot over 13 years of my league. I have the 12th pick and the 1st pick of round#2. The 12th pick scoring has averaged 158.92 per year and have scored about 1000 points less than the 11th pick. Is that a staggering difference after that many years? We have a keeper league where we can keep 4 players. I am planning on keeping Keenan Allen and Michael Crabtree and debating between Gostkowski, Denver def and Martellus Bennett for final two spots. I am strongly thinking of drafting Jimmy Graham with the 12th pick.
Jay Monahan (Cincinnati, OH)
I wouldn’t attach too much significance to picks 11 and 12. Obviously some guys picking 11th have hit it big with some guys who had great seasons, while some of the No. 12 picks have imploded. But that doesn’t change your mission. You’re picking 12th, and you’ve got to get the best guy you can. Who cares what some other owner did when picking different players for a team with different needs? It will be nice if Jimmy Graham is still around with that 12th pick this year, but I doubt it.
Question 10
Thanks for the great product. Won my league championship last year with your advice to stick with my team after a 1-5 start. I play in a keeper league. We are allowed to keep players 3 years, but all players have 3 year eligibility on my list beside Russell Wilson who has 2. We can keep up to four players, but one of those players has to be a rookie from the proceeding season. The cost of a keeper is the round that player was drafted the year before. Undrafted players cost a last round pick (19). Which four would you keep? Keep in mind that in a 10-team league that very few of the top forty players will be available in the draft. 1. Arian Foster, 2. Larry Fitzgerald, 3. Eddie Lacy, 4. Antonio Brown, 5. Matthew Stafford, 6. Giovani Bernard, 11. Shane Vereen, 12. Alshon Jeffery, 15. Christine Michael, 16. Julius Thomas, 19. Russell Wilson, 19. Ladarius Green, 19. Toby Gerhart
John Evans (Pensacola, FL)
You said one keeper must be a rookie. So start with Eddie Lacy. He’s probably a top-10 player, and you’re getting him with a third-round pick. The other three look like no-brainers. Alshon Jeffery (12th), Julius Thomas (16th) and Toby Gerhart (19th) would all be selected 8-13 rounds earlier than where they were chosen last year. Those are your guys.