Ian Allan answers your fantasy football question. In this edition: Injury prone players -- when do you just give up on them? Where are the most current rankings from Fantasy Index? And a rare case where a defending champion might not want to protect any returning players.
Question 1
I purchased the internet version of the magazine and it appears I got the July 1st update as a result of that purchase. I am assuming the rankings in the magazine were done prior to July 1st for printing sake? Or, am I wrong with that assumption? What are the latest player rankings from your website/company?
KEVIN DALLAS (Covington, KY)
The magazine went to press in the middle of June. I think the last chance I had to change anything was June 16. So in the magazine proper (the on-paper magazine and the pdf version of the same thing) everything is up to date as of June 16. Then I got an email on July 7, reminding me that we needed to put the stat projection file on the website. Guys who buy the magazine like to go to the website and see how the rankings change for their league’s customized scoring system. Or maybe they just want to see the exact, itemized scoring projections. Whatever. I sent over that file, and it got posted on the site on either July 7 or 8. That’s the one with the “July 1” date on it, even though it’s actually another six days more current than that. There are a couple of minor changes in stat projections that occurred in late June, but nothing particularly noteworthy. Next update is coming July 28.
Question 2
Have you ever been burned by a player who had such a bad season that you refuse to draft them again? How hesitant are you to draft a player who has a reputation for being injured? Who are some of the players that you try to avoid drafting because of the injury risk?
Treavor Phipps (Salem, IN)
There are certain guys who just can’t seem to stay healthy, and they’ve been hurt so much that I just have little confidence in their ability to stay on the field. Darren McFadden and DeMarco Murray would probably be the two at the top of my personal list. Ryan Mathews, Miles Austin, Nate Burleson, Ben Tate, Fred Jackson, Ahmad Bradshaw. If you’re buying any of those guys, it had better be at a discount.
Question 3
I have long believed in the idea that a system has as much (or more) to do with a player's statistics as his skill set. For example, a stud receiver in a run-first offense might be less productive than a mediocre receiver in a system where they throw a lot. Have you crunched the numbers by, say, offensive coordinators so that you could compare the No. 2 WR in a Todd Haley offense to a No. 2 WR in a Kyle Shanahan offense? I'm particularly interested in those comparisons as the coordinators move from team to team, where they would turn mediocre players into those worth owning and vice versa – solid fantasy starters into guys I would want to avoid.
Geoff Maleman (Los Angeles, CA)
They all have their quirks and trends, and I’ve tried to point those out in the magazine. But really too many to touch on in any detail here. Sean Payton likes to throw to the running backs and use lots of wide receivers. Norv Turner uses his wide receivers on a lot of vertical routes – his wide receivers usually lead the league in yards per catch (but don’t catch a lot of balls). Marc Trestman is the most fantasy-friendly coach; he’s not only an excellent Xs-and-Os guy, but he relies primarily on his two wide receivers and just one tailback. The Bills ran the hell out of the ball last year; they’ll have a good ground game. The Eagles really get the ball downfield; they’re not passing a lot, but when they do, it’s for big strikes and big plays. Kyle Shanahan should help Cleveland’s running game while dramatically hurting the passing offense – they won’t pass as much. The Seahawks and 49ers run the ball a whole bunch. But with 32 teams and all the various positions, this is too big of a subject to get after in any meaningful way in a letter response.
Question 4
I am a standard scoring, keeper league (Keep 3) I have the 12th & 13th pick, (I won my league) who should I keep? Newton, Dalton, Doug Martin, Zac Stacy, Alshon Jeffery, Larry Fitzgerald, Antonio Brown.
BARRY ST PETER (Pittsfield, MA)
I don’t think any of those guys are worth selecting in the top 13 overall, so if you have the option to keep nobody (and retain your first three picks in the draft) that would be the route I would go. I think you’ll wind up with a better three picking from whatever isn’t protected by other teams. If you MUST protect three players, then I would start with Antonio Brown and Alshon Jeffery. They both might be in the top dozen wide receivers. The other keeper would probably be one of the running backs. Doug Martin today, but maybe Zac Stacy if you ask me again next week.