Will soft run schedules help lift Chris Johnson and Arian Foster to unexpected heights?
A reader sent in an email asking for strength of schedule, customized for rushing and passing scoring. I’ll provide that info, and I’ll put it in two separate charts, rather than one big, complicated pile.
For rushing, the Jets, Texans and Colts project to play the easiest schedules, while the Rams, Falcons and Broncos project to play the hardest.
That’s using the scoring system of 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 rushing yards. The Jets’ upcoming opponents on average allowed 121 rushing yards per game last year, the most in the league. Seattle’s opponents, meanwhile, allowed a league-low 104 yards per game. That’s influenced heavily by four games against the 49ers and Cardinals, who were both really strong against the run last year.
The Texans opponents allowed a league-high average of 15.2 rushing touchdowns per season last year. Almost one per game. Atlanta and Pittsburgh are the two teams whose opponents allowed under 11 rushing touchdowns (on average) last year.
Anyway, the complete list. The Yards and fantasy points are presented in per-game fashion, while it seems more intuitive to put touchdowns in per-season form.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE -- RUSHING | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDR | Points |
NY Jets | 121 | 14.0 | 17.4 |
Houston | 116 | 15.2 | 17.3 |
Indianapolis | 116 | 14.9 | 17.1 |
Minnesota | 119 | 13.8 | 17.1 |
Jacksonville | 115 | 14.3 | 16.8 |
Detroit | 119 | 12.8 | 16.7 |
NY Giants | 112 | 14.5 | 16.7 |
Dallas | 112 | 14.4 | 16.6 |
Tennessee | 116 | 13.5 | 16.6 |
Philadelphia | 112 | 14.3 | 16.5 |
Buffalo | 116 | 12.9 | 16.5 |
Miami | 117 | 12.6 | 16.4 |
Cincinnati | 115 | 12.9 | 16.3 |
New England | 115 | 12.6 | 16.2 |
Baltimore | 113 | 12.9 | 16.2 |
Green Bay | 117 | 11.9 | 16.2 |
Tampa Bay | 113 | 12.8 | 16.1 |
Washington | 111 | 13.1 | 16.1 |
Carolina | 115 | 12.0 | 16.0 |
Chicago | 113 | 11.9 | 15.8 |
New Orleans | 113 | 11.9 | 15.8 |
Cleveland | 113 | 12.0 | 15.8 |
Kansas City | 108 | 13.1 | 15.7 |
San Francisco | 109 | 12.8 | 15.7 |
Arizona | 108 | 12.9 | 15.6 |
San Diego | 110 | 11.7 | 15.4 |
Seattle | 104 | 12.8 | 15.2 |
Oakland | 110 | 11.4 | 15.2 |
Pittsburgh | 111 | 10.9 | 15.2 |
Denver | 110 | 11.1 | 15.1 |
Atlanta | 109 | 10.8 | 14.9 |
St. Louis | 105 | 11.3 | 14.7 |
For passing, the easiest schedules appear to belong to Miami, Chicago and Buffalo, while the hardest go to three AFC North clubs (Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Baltimore).
This is using the same scoring system – 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards.
The spread for passing yards ranges from 263 (Seattle) down to 240 (Cleveland and Baltimore). Recall that Seattle projected to play the hardest schedule for rushing yards, so they have the most pass-heavy mix in their schedule.
The spread for passing touchdowns ranges from 27.4 (Miami) down to 23.4 (Dallas).
All of these numbers, of course, are simply PROJECTED numbers. They’re based on what teams did LAST YEAR. No doubt many of these teams will be a lot better or a lot worse, severely limiting the value of these charts. Probably a better way to use Strength of Schedule is to update them in late October, using 2014 data, then make some adjustments for players for the second half of the season.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE -- PASSING | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDP | Points |
Miami | 260 | 27.4 | 36.3 |
Chicago | 260 | 26.8 | 36.1 |
Buffalo | 259 | 26.3 | 35.7 |
Seattle | 263 | 25.2 | 35.7 |
Detroit | 255 | 26.8 | 35.5 |
NY Giants | 260 | 25.5 | 35.5 |
Washington | 259 | 25.3 | 35.4 |
St. Louis | 257 | 25.8 | 35.4 |
New England | 257 | 25.7 | 35.4 |
New Orleans | 254 | 26.3 | 35.2 |
NY Jets | 257 | 25.1 | 35.1 |
Green Bay | 256 | 25.4 | 35.1 |
San Diego | 255 | 25.6 | 35.1 |
Tennessee | 250 | 25.9 | 34.7 |
San Francisco | 254 | 24.7 | 34.7 |
Arizona | 256 | 24.1 | 34.6 |
Minnesota | 252 | 25.1 | 34.6 |
Houston | 253 | 24.8 | 34.5 |
Carolina | 248 | 26.0 | 34.5 |
Indianapolis | 249 | 25.3 | 34.4 |
Kansas City | 254 | 24.2 | 34.4 |
Denver | 253 | 24.1 | 34.3 |
Oakland | 251 | 24.6 | 34.3 |
Philadelphia | 250 | 24.5 | 34.2 |
Tampa Bay | 248 | 24.9 | 34.1 |
Atlanta | 245 | 24.8 | 33.8 |
Dallas | 248 | 23.4 | 33.5 |
Cincinnati | 243 | 24.8 | 33.5 |
Jacksonville | 247 | 23.4 | 33.5 |
Pittsburgh | 241 | 24.7 | 33.4 |
Cleveland | 240 | 24.3 | 33.1 |
Baltimore | 240 | 23.5 | 32.8 |
—Ian Allan