Scheduletron

August 12, 2014

2014 Strength of Schedule

Colts appear set to play easiest schedule

We’ve had a couple of requests for strength of schedule stuff.

It’s gone by a few times, and it’s printed in the magazine, but here’s a recap below.

All of these figures are based on what teams did last year. That is, Seattle is the toughest opponent to face. Houston and Washington, those are the teams you want your guys playing against.

In other couple of weeks, I’ll re-do the Strength of Schedule not with 2013 statistic but by how I expect defenses to play THIS YEAR. Dallas, I imagine, will be the most favorable opponent. That defense should be horrible.

Here’s the traditional strength of schedule. Colts expected to have easiest schedule.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (wins-losses)
Rk	Team	W	L	T	Pct
1.	Indianapolis	110	146	0	.430
2.	Tennessee	112	144	0	.438
3.	Houston	113	143	0	.441
4.	Jacksonville	116	140	0	.453
5.	Baltimore	118	138	0	.461
6.	NY Giants	119	137	0	.465
7.	Cleveland	119	137	0	.465
8.	New Orleans	119	135	2	.469
9.	Cincinnati	120	136	0	.469
10.	Pittsburgh	120	136	0	.469
11.	Carolina	120	134	2	.473
12.	Minnesota	121	133	2	.477
13.	Philadelphia	122	133	1	.479
14.	Tampa Bay	123	131	2	.484
15.	Dallas	125	131	0	.488
16.	Washington	125	130	1	.490
17.	Detroit	124	128	4	.492
18.	Chicago	125	127	4	.496
19.	Buffalo	127	127	2	.500
20.	Green Bay	128	126	2	.504
21.	Miami	129	125	2	.508
22.	Atlanta	130	124	2	.512
23.	New England	131	123	2	.516
24.	NY Jets	132	122	2	.520
25.	Arizona	140	116	0	.547
26.	Kansas City	143	113	0	.559
27.	Seattle	143	112	1	.561
28.	San Francisco	144	112	0	.563
29.	San Diego	144	112	0	.563
30.	St. Louis	144	111	1	.564
31.	Denver	146	110	0	.570
32.	Oakland	148	108	0	.578

This one is based not on wins-losses but points allowed. Colts still projecting to be easiest.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (points)
Rk	Team	Pts
1.	Indianapolis	24.8
2.	Detroit	24.6
3.	Miami	24.6
4.	Houston	24.5
5.	Minnesota	24.3
6.	Tennessee	24.3
7.	Buffalo	24.3
8.	NY Giants	24.2
9.	NY Jets	24.0
10.	New England	23.9
11.	Green Bay	23.9
12.	Chicago	23.8
13.	Jacksonville	23.8
14.	Carolina	23.8
15.	Dallas	23.6
16.	Washington	23.6
17.	New Orleans	23.6
18.	Philadelphia	23.6
19.	Tampa Bay	23.5
20.	Cincinnati	23.3
21.	Cleveland	22.9
22.	Baltimore	22.7
23.	San Francisco	22.7
24.	Kansas City	22.6
25.	Pittsburgh	22.6
26.	Atlanta	22.5
27.	Seattle	22.5
28.	San Diego	22.5
29.	Arizona	22.4
30.	St. Louis	22.3
31.	Oakland	21.8
32.	Denver	21.5

This one is built on rushing defenses. Jets expected to have easiest schedule using fantasy scoring system of 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards. This is rushing production only. On average last year, New York’s opponents allowed 1,938 rushing yards last season, with 14 rushing touchdowns.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (rushing)
Rk	Team	Yards	TDR	Per Game
1.	NY Jets	1,938	14.0	17.4
2.	Houston	1,856	15.2	17.3
3.	Indianapolis	1,850	14.9	17.1
4.	Minnesota	1,906	13.8	17.1
5.	Jacksonville	1,833	14.3	16.8
6.	Detroit	1,908	12.8	16.7
7.	NY Giants	1,799	14.5	16.7
8.	Dallas	1,797	14.4	16.6
9.	Tennessee	1,848	13.5	16.6
10.	Philadelphia	1,784	14.3	16.5
11.	Buffalo	1,862	12.9	16.5
12.	Miami	1,874	12.6	16.4
13.	Cincinnati	1,836	12.9	16.3
14.	New England	1,840	12.6	16.2
15.	Baltimore	1,815	12.9	16.2
16.	Green Bay	1,870	11.9	16.2
17.	Tampa Bay	1,808	12.8	16.1
18.	Washington	1,781	13.1	16.1
19.	Carolina	1,847	12.0	16.0
20.	Chicago	1,815	11.9	15.8
21.	New Orleans	1,816	11.9	15.8
22.	Cleveland	1,808	12.0	15.8
23.	Kansas City	1,724	13.1	15.7
24.	San Francisco	1,741	12.8	15.7
25.	Arizona	1,726	12.9	15.6
26.	San Diego	1,758	11.7	15.4
27.	Seattle	1,668	12.8	15.2
28.	Oakland	1,754	11.4	15.2
29.	Pittsburgh	1,771	10.9	15.2
30.	Denver	1,755	11.1	15.1
31.	Atlanta	1,736	10.8	14.9
32.	St. Louis	1,675	11.3	14.7

And here’s the passing chart, using 1 point for every 10 passing yards and 6 points for each TD pass. The numbers are the average season totals for the 16 upcoming opponents. Miami has the easiest schedule.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (passing)
Rk	Team	Yards	TDR	Per Game
1.	Miami	4,166	27.4	36.3
2.	Chicago	4,168	26.8	36.1
3.	Buffalo	4,143	26.3	35.7
4.	Seattle	4,203	25.2	35.7
5.	Detroit	4,083	26.8	35.5
6.	NY Giants	4,157	25.5	35.5
7.	Washington	4,151	25.3	35.4
8.	St. Louis	4,115	25.8	35.4
9.	New England	4,118	25.7	35.4
10.	New Orleans	4,060	26.3	35.2
11.	NY Jets	4,112	25.1	35.1
12.	Green Bay	4,090	25.4	35.1
13.	San Diego	4,078	25.6	35.1
14.	Tennessee	4,004	25.9	34.7
15.	San Francisco	4,064	24.7	34.7
16.	Arizona	4,094	24.1	34.6
17.	Minnesota	4,029	25.1	34.6
18.	Houston	4,043	24.8	34.5
19.	Carolina	3,965	26.0	34.5
20.	Indianapolis	3,992	25.3	34.4
21.	Kansas City	4,059	24.2	34.4
22.	Denver	4,047	24.1	34.3
23.	Oakland	4,014	24.6	34.3
24.	Philadelphia	3,999	24.5	34.2
25.	Tampa Bay	3,962	24.9	34.1
26.	Atlanta	3,924	24.8	33.8
27.	Dallas	3,965	23.4	33.5
28.	Cincinnati	3,881	24.8	33.5
29.	Jacksonville	3,958	23.4	33.5
30.	Pittsburgh	3,863	24.7	33.4
31.	Cleveland	3,839	24.3	33.1
32.	Baltimore	3,836	23.5	32.8

—Ian Allan

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