Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. How many yards should we expect out of a No. 1 receiver (and are all No. 1 receivers created equal). How to find an overall top 50 list. Is the NFL handing out too many marijuana suspensions? And what's the ideal draft position in a Third-Round Reversal format?
Question 1
When putting your forecasts together, I assume you allocate percentages to each team’s players with an eye on which position on the depth chart (e.g. WR1 gets 40% of yards, WR2, 25%, etc.) Do you have actual scoring by depth chart ranking for each team for the prior year's actuals? For example, in Atlanta last year, WR1 was filled by multiple players, but it would be interesting to know how the WR1 position scored each week of the year and in total regardless of who was starting in that position.
Chris Masters (Toronto, ON)
Percentages are part of my system, but I don’t treat all No. 1 wide receivers the same, and it’s the same with the rest of the guys. The No. 2 receivers in Chicago, Atlanta and Tampa Bay will account for a lot more of the production than the No. 2 receivers in Seattle, Detroit and San Diego. And I’ve actually got multiple layers of projections for some players. For the two rookie receivers in Jacksonville, for example (Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson) I’ve got one set of numbers for where they are right now, and another where I think we will be once it’s clear which one of them is starting opposite Cecil Shorts III. As for pass catchers, I’ve got six projecting to account for at least 30 percent of their teams’ receiving yards – Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green, Antonio Brown, Vincent Jackson and Dez Bryant. I’ve got nine projecting to account for at least 30 percent of their teams’ touchdown catches – Calvin Johnson, Bryant, Vernon Davis, Brandon Marshall, Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald, Green, Jimmy Graham and Kyle Rudolph.
Question 2
Love the fact that I can log in and see our custom predictions based on our scoring system. Super handy. One thing that would help even more is if I could see the overall top 35 players from all positions based on our scoring system: PPR, 1 pt per reception, 6 points for all touchdowns, 1 pt for every 25 yards passing, 1 pt for every 10 yards receiving and rushing. I suspect based on this the quarterbacks will move up from the overall top 35 listed in the magazine. Thanks for your help every year!
Johnny Bazzano (Santa Rosa, CA)
It’s there. Click on “Your Stuff” in the upper right hand corner. Then click on “Fantasy Index Cheat Sheet rankings and auction values”. Then you have the option of a bunch of different scoring systems to choose from (including your own customized systems). Click on any one of them. Initially you see QB, RB and WR, in three columns. But there’s a blue box up there that reads “View Auction Values”. Click on that one, and you’ll see the overall top 50. If the top 50 doesn’t seem quite right (QBs are way too high or way too low, for example) go into the auction preferences to make sure the setup is correct – right number of teams, right number of starters, etc.
Question 3
Your thoughts on Rice receiving a two-game suspension for knocking out his fiancee and then dragging her unconscious body outside a casino elevator. If an NFL player uses a gay slur, he won’t play for a year. If Rice would have gotten free tattoos while in college then the NFL sits him for five games like they did to Terrelle Pryor. I guess Rice could have knocked out two women and only missed four games. Smoke weed like Josh Gordon and miss a entire season. You get my point! You can be a thug and no problem but smoke a joint on your own time in Denver or Seattle where it is completely legal and get hanged. I am really confused.
BEN HOGEVOLL (Siletz, OR)
It does seem a little out of whack, doesn’t it? The marijuana rules are the ones that really bug me. I don’t see pot smoking as all that different from a guy drinking a beer. I don’t think it’s that big of a deal. I don’t think the NFL should be testing and suspending guys for smoking marijuana. (I can’t recall the NFL handing out any lengthy suspensions for players using slurs.)
Question 4
I play in a contest that incorporates 3RR. I am currently mulling whether to pick from the top or bottom (1-12). Which of these looks like a better start, McCoy-Cobb-R.White or pick later and go Julio-Bernard-A.Rodgers?
David Kennedy (Steamburg, NY)
Results can vary based on scoring system, but it’s my belief that the third round reversal draft format is more equitable than a usual snake draft. Using standard scoring (no PPR) and my draft projections, the best draft position is No. 5, followed by No. 2 and 1, which project to be a point behind after the first seven rounds. The three worst picks, I think, are Nos. 8-12, which project to be 15-18 points back.
| 3RR, FIRST SEVEN ROUNDS | |
|---|---|
| Draft position | Pts back |
| 5th pick | -- |
| 2nd pick | 1 |
| 1st pick | 1 |
| 4th pick | 2 |
| 7th pick | 3 |
| 6th pick | 3 |
| 3rd pick | 4 |
| 9th pick | 15 |
| 8th pick | 15 |
| 10th pick | 15 |
| 12th pick | 16 |
| 11th pick | 18 |
As for the two packages of players you specifically mentioned, I think you’ll be 37 points ahead if you go with McCoy-Cobb-White.
Question 5
I read in the magazine's mailbag that you included the defensive depth charts in lieu of in-depth defensive analysis taking up so much space in the publication. The depth charts have 2013 stats with them, though. I understand your reasoning for trimming back, but some statistical projection for the defensive starters would keep me from having to hunt it down on another site. Do you have any plans to do any projections for IDPs at all this year?
Shaun Hawkins (Albany, GA)
Andy Richardson does the IDP projections, and I believe he does forecasts for way more players than you would ever dream of selecting. His updated defensive numbers will be coming out as part of the Monday supplement.
Question 6
I'm in a 12 team points-only league that awards a full 6 for passing TDs. It's also an unusual keeper league. You can keep up to 3 players (not at the same position) from last year's roster by surrendering your highest available draft pick for each, but you can't keep any player two years in a row (though you can re-draft him if he's available). Our draft is non-serpentine; worst drafts first (all rounds) with the league champ drafting 12th. I'm the only owner who doesn't draft a QB in the first round, and in 17 years I've never won the league. However, I'm always in the playoffs, and traditionally end up drafting anywhere from 7th to 10th. I am considering keeping Marshawn Lynch, Dez Bryant and Jimmy Graham, and going for a QB in Round 4. But as I said, all 11 of my fellow owners will take QBs first, and in my draft position none of the top 5 or 6 scorers (no yardage, remember) will be available. I usually end up with guys like Jay Cutler and Alex Smith this way, and the results have thus far left something to be desired. Is it time to change strategies?
Philip Haines (Seattle, WA)
I think you stay the course. You’re getting good results. You just need the planets to align properly in the postseason. Quarterbacks are more valuable in that format, of course, but it’s still a deep position. You can draft a could of guys in the teens – Cutler, Roethlisberger, Griffin, Eli Manning – and hope one of them hits it big. Heading into this August, I think you’re sitting on three of the top 15 overall players in Lynch, Bryant and Graham. The correct play is to protect those three, and worry about the quarterbacking later.
Question 7
I am in a 14 team PPR league. We drew for picks last night and I have the 10th pick. The team with the number 2 pick offered me his number 2 for my 10 and my third round pick. Our league alternates draft orders every 2 rounds. So rounds 1-2 go picks 1-14, 14-1, then 3-4 goes 14-1, 1-14. I would end up with 2 of the top 16 players in a 14 team league. Can I afford to not pick for close to 30 picks?
Dave Collins (Newark, DE)
Pass. In a PPR format, I believe the No. 2 pick is only about 25 points better than the No. 10 slot. All of that extra value and a lot more would disappear if you also gave up the No. 33 pick overall. Not even in the ballpark where I would even make a counter-offer. There’s no deal to be had there. In general, it’s easier to come out ahead when you’re the guy who’s trading down in those kind of situations.
Question 8
Keeper Question: I am thinking of trading Forte who would be a first-round keeper (9th pick overall) for Montee Ball who would be eighth-round keeper. Is it worth it? Thinking of asking for his third-round pick (32nd pick overall) for my fourth-round pick (42nd pick overall). Is this enough or a lot?
Marco Tavares (Billerica, MA)
I would much rather have Montee Ball (losing an eighth-round pick) than Matt Forte (if he cost me my first). That’s what we’re talking about, right? If the draft picks have already been triggered (that is, you’ve lost your first-round pick and the other guy has lost his eight-rounder), then I would have no interest in swapping Forte for Ball.
Question 9
I'm in a 12 team league with RBs, WRs and TEs getting 1 point for the 1st 50 yards and 1 point every 25 yards thereafter. Points for scores are based on distance. I can keep up to three players entering the draft. We start 1 QB, 3RB, 3WR and 1TE. Which of the following would you suggest I keep: Matt Forte, LeVeon Bell, A.J. Green, Keenan Allen, Jimmy Graham. I'm torn between keeping Forte, Bell and Graham and Forte, Green and Graham.
Bill Ashe ()
I think I’d go with Forte, Green and Graham. I like Green’s ability to strike on touchdowns from longer range.