Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: How much of a decline should we expect from Nick Foles and the Eagles (with DeSean Jackson gone)? Do new head coaches tend to help offensive production? And should Andrew Luck be picked with the No. 1 choice overall in a dynasty format?
Question 1
Another superior magazine this year, guys. On the NFC East podcast last week, you were somewhat dismissive of Mark's uneasiness about Nick Foles playing his sophomore season without DeSean Jackson, and you have only have 5 QB's ahead of him on the cheat sheet. I feel like I'm getting some mixed signals on Foles. Looking at your Eagles team write-up on page 150, you point out that "this system gets players open", and use Riley Cooper's 18 ypc as an example, but then you suggest his success may have been largely due to Jackson's presence, and that Cooper on his own "struggles to gain separation". Jeremy Maclin "doesn't have that burst". Behind those two guys, nothing but rookies. I haven't forgotten his outstanding RBs and solid tight ends, and I'm not suggesting that Foles will turn into Danny Wuerffel overnight because of one less WR, but I'm curious why you're not more concerned about that situation. Thanks as always, you're a Great American.
Jacob Wilson (Crandall, TX)
On the podcast, with Mark Nulty, we’re just tossing around some ideas. I’m just answering what comes to mind, without carefully thinking things through. I don’t have all of my notes and charts in front of me. So let’s take a more careful look at the Eagles, who’ll be working without what was statistically the best receiver in football last year. DeSean Jackson not only caught 82 passes, but he also averaged 16.2 yards per catch. Including incompletions, he averaged 10.6 yards per pass attempt last year, which was the most of all players with at least 100 targets. He’s good, and it’s not realistic to expect Jeremy Maclin to step in and play at that level. The second rounder, Jordan Matthews, supposedly looks pretty good, but he’s just a rookie. So there’s some decline there. No doubt about that. There’s also perhaps some issues with defenses being better prepared for Nick Foles or more equipped to handle the wrinkles that Chip Kelly works into his offense. It’s also simply hard to repeat a great season. Factor all of that in, and I am projecting a decline for this offense. Philadelphia’s offense last year scored 51 touchdowns, 2nd-most in the league. I’ve got them down at 45.5 right now. I’m got them averaging 20 fewer passing yards per game and 10 fewer rushing yards. At the same time, we need to respect that Foles was really good last year, and that Kelly seems to be one of the offensive gurus in this league. The running game was great last year, and he does a good job of getting receivers open downfield. The Eagles’ wide receivers averaged a league-high 15.6 yards per catch last year. Their running backs averaged a league-high 10.7 yards per catch. And their tight ends averaged 14.1 yards per catch, which would have been No. 1 if not for Vernon Davis in San Francisco. So Jackson gets some credit there – he was their best receiver – but some of this can be attributed to Kelly. Also note with Foles that they use him as a runner. Not that he’s particularly mobile, but they catch defenses off guard with how they use him. He averaged 22 rushing yards in the 10 games he started last year, with 3 TDs. I worked through the numbers for all the quarterbacks and all the teams carefully. There may be some risk involved, but by my math, Foles is as good as any of the other quarterbacks in that second tier (behind Manning, Brees and Rodgers).
Question 2
With the continuing trend of large numbers of coaching changes each year, I was wondering what the impact of a coaching change has from a fantasy perspective. For example, Philip Rivers had a great rebound season last year under new head coach Mike McCoy and Carson Palmer had his best season in years under Bruce Arians. It seems like QBs would benefit the most from a coaching change, as their previous poor play is what most likely led to the change, but also interested if changes lead to improved (or worsened) performance for other positions as well. Would also be interested in how this year's retreads (Lovie + Caldwell) impacted their teams in their first go round.
James Wimmers (Lincolnton, NC)
I dumped the numbers into a database and looked at all of them – all 95 new coaches for the 14 seasons of this century. The exact ratio of 52-43 kept coming up. For points, 52 teams scored more points (while 43 scored fewer). For rushing (6 points for TDs, 1 for every 10 yards), 52 finished with better numbers (43 were worse). And the same for passing – 52-43. Lovie Smith is in that group. His first team in Chicago finished with worse numbers across the board. For Jim Caldwell (with the Colts) the numbers were better – 2 more wins, 39 more points, 10 more touchdowns and 645 more yards. But overall, the study was underwhelming. When a team fires its coach, that means it was probably pretty bad. And such teams really have hardly anywhere to go except up. So a 52-43 margin of improvement really isn’t very noteworthy. Teams putting up the same numbers but not replacing coaches probably would tend to improve by about the same amount.
Question 3
I am about to start and draft another dynasty league. Regardless of scoring system, I stated to a few of the owners that without question, Andrew Luck should be the #1 overall pick, and I don’t think its even a debate. They didn’t believe my philosophy. My question is do you agree or am I out of my mind? 24 years old, about to become a superstar in the most important position. Thank you.
SEBASTIAN FALSONE (Philadelphia, PA)
It’s a quarterback-driven league. That’s the most important position. And Luck seems to have all of the qualities you’re looking for. If you could back up the clock and select Manning, Brady or Brees back as they were just moving into their prime, would you do so? Luck looks like he’s going to be one of those kind of guys. So in that regard, it makes a lot of sense. On the flip side, if you know that everybody else in your league is going to be gunning for backs and pass catchers, you might be willing to slip Luck to the second round. I don’t think he’ll help you win your league this year. For 2014, he’ll probably be pretty average among starting fantasy quarterbacks.
Question 4
I'm a long-time customer who loves your product. I always feel well prepared. However, I have been in an auction league the last few years, and while I've felt that your online tool helped me greatly with an idea of the real worth of various players, I don't think I've managed my budget very well. Basically, I think I avoid overpaying for the guys at the top that the other owners overspend to get, and then I get a deep team with guys who are good value, often at significant discount. But, by doing this, both the last two years I filled my roster without using my whole budget, and the leftover $$ is of no use to me during the season. So, I've been wondering if I should go into the auction this year with a dozen or so names of guys "worth" overspending for, fully expecting to overpay for 2 or 3, since I know that I can fill out my roster with guys I'll value more highly than everyone else because my sheet is based on your data. Does that make sense? And if so, any thoughts on players or positions worth targeting in my overpayment scheme?
L.B. Graham (Wildwood, MO)
I don’t you need to make any big changes in your approach. You just need to remember to spend the money. As much as we all like to get players for 60-70 percent of what they’re worth, you have to make sure you use up all of your money. You may need to buy a few guys at 80-90 percent of their value or even overspend a player here or there. Finishing with $15 at the end is the same as forgetting to draft a starting wide receiver.
Question 5
In a dynasty league with standard scoring and positional values, where present value is of no importance, which young players with cloudy futures (Josh Gordon, Justin Blackmon, David Wilson) are most valuable and how do they compare with this year's crop of rookies (who inherently have cloudy futures)?
SEAN MCGUIRE (Minneapolis, MN)
I think Josh Gordon is the best of those veterans. He’s shown he can do it. At the very best, maybe he plays 6-8 games this year, but there’s a reasonable chance he’ll return as a full-time guy in 2015. With the extensive off-field problems, however, I wouldn’t taken Gordon before any of the wide receivers selected in the first round this year. Definitely not before Watkins, Cooks or Evans.
Question 6
Our commish has come up with a new side game for us to play. Its non-draft, just pick ONE player from each eight divisions to fill the eight team spots (QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, K, Def). My best example so far is P. Manning, Peterson, Foster, Bryant, A.J. Green, Graham, Gostkowski and SEA. Think on it and let me know who you'd choose. No drops or adds all year.
Derek King ()
The AFC South seems to be the problem division. There’s no home-run player in that division. Using my projections, I could strengthen your entry by replacing Arian Foster with LeSean McCoy. That would pick up 43 points. While you’d give away 31 by moving from Dez Bryant to Andre Johnson. Net gain of 12.
Question 7
I just traded Lacy and a future #1 for Rice, K Allen and T Williams in a 12 team PPR Dynasty league since I was in desperate need for a no. 2 & 3 receiver and am in Championship contention! I have a gut feeling that Lacy will be hurt a lot with foot, shoulder and concussion issues with his style of play and won't be a top 10 back three yrs from now! Now that Rice has only a 2 game suspension, where do you rank Rice? Do you think he still has 3 good years left? Do you think this was an equitable trade?
MONTE MCDONALD (Las Vegas, NV)
It’s a gutsy trade, and I see where you’re coming from. Lacy is a great back, and it’s tough to give guys like that away, but Rice might be almost as good for the next two years, and you picked up two solid receivers. Neither Allen nor Williams, however, is a can’t-miss, leap-pipe lock. For PPR, I’ve got Allen at 18th on my board, while Williams is 32nd (that’s among wide receivers). You may wind up regretting that you didn’t hang onto Lacy and try to find receivers elsewhere. We’ll see. I’m not sure who’ll be the winner on that trade.
Question 8
$200 auction budget 12 tm league; 2 keepers/squad minus cost of keepers. Start 2QB 2RB 2WR 1RB/WR. I have Gio B locked in as a for sure at $11. Leaning towards Rivers for $6, but also have Z Stacy for $18, T Brady for $29, and M Floyd (AZ) for $5. Rivers was drafted in 2013 as 27th ranked QB according to price, whereas 14th ranked QB (Rivers 2014 proj rank) went for $18. Although, Z Stacy is $18 and the 12th ranked RB in 2013 went for $33 last year. I feel like Rivers is a safer bet than Stacy and will allow me to pursue a Big 3 QB. Alternatively, 2 solid RB's for $29 would give some spending room for 2 QBs.
Jake Wells (Chicago, IL)
Two quarterbacks. That’s the key. You start two of them, so they become a coveted commodity. You have to have two good ones. Right now, I would keep Rivers. He looks like a nice, safe investment. If, after seeing a few preseason games, you have a good feeling about Zac Stacy’s ability to hold off Tre Mason, you could switch to him. Agreed that Giovani Bernard is No. 1.
Question 9
My friends and I are considering a league where everyone drafts a deep team and is unable to add players during the season. Each week, you determine your starting roster AFTER the games are played. Have you heard of such a league? What suggestions do you have in choosing a roster? Do you know a web site that would allow this?My friends and I are considering a league where everyone drafts a deep team and is unable to add players during the season. Each week, you determine your starting roster AFTER the games are played. Have you heard of such a league? What suggestions do you have in choosing a roster? Do you know a web site that would allow this?
BILL YATES (Churchville, NY)
I think all of the regular websites will be able to run that kind of league. That kind of scoring is typically called a “best ball format”. We’ve been using best ball for the Mock Draft (our of our magazine) for over 10 years.
Question 10
With what pick do fantasy players enter the “Megatron Zone” this year? That’s the point at which you really wanted a running back in the first round but none of the “studs” are left, so in lieu of taking Lamar Miller too early you throw back the rest of your beer and say, “I’ll take Megatron.” Sixteen picks later and your RB1 is a guy you’ve never seen play in college, you are already drunk, and everyone is calling you “Mr. Sankey.” It appears to me that the Megatron Zone is earlier this year, maybe at around pick six, where it would normally be at about pick nine. If you were in that 5-9 area would you take a stud quarterback, best running back available, or Jimmy Graham before Megatron this year, thus delaying entry into the Megatron Zone? The league I’m in is 14 teams; 6pts for any TD; and half a point per reception regardless of position. A lot of our running backs will be taken in those first four spots or be kept, hence the question.
Tru Livaudais (Tuscaloosa, AL)
I’m more willing than most to select something other than a running back in the first round. I’ve got Calvin Johnson as the 6th player on my board right now (3rd in a PPR format, and 13th in TD-only). Now you’re in a league giving 6 points for touchdown passes, and that changes it a little bit. In that kind of format, you have to think about putting those top 3 quarterbacks in the top 5, pushing Johnson down to around 9th.