If a running back looks awesome (or terrible) in his first preseason game, does that accurate indicate what we might expect when the real games start?
Carlos Hyde and Andre Williams have looked very good so far. The way they’re running, they definitely look like NFL running backs.
Then there’s a pack of rookie runners that seem to be just OK. Not bad, but they haven’t set the world on fire. They either haven’t been that productive, or they’re no working with the first-unit offense. They’re good runs have tended to come late in games against the deep backups. That group includes Bishop Sankey, Devonta Freeman, Tre Mason, Jeremy Hill and Terrance West.
Then there’s the group that simply hasn’t been impressive. We’re just one game in, of course, but in that group I’m putting Charles Sims, KaDeem Carey and James White.
But does any of this matter? How much weight should be putting in these initial preseason games. Backing up, has there been any correlation in the past between debut preseason games and ultimate NFL success?
Well, here’s the list of all running backs selected in the first two rounds of the draft the last two years, along with how they played in their first preseason games:
Trent Richardson
Impressive. Ran for 33 yards on 6 carries at Detroit. Looked like probably Rookie of the Year and maybe an instant-impact franchise back like Adrian Peterson. Went on to run for almost 1,000 yards as a rookie before Year Two disaster.
Doug Martin
Carried 7 times for 21 yards and a touchdown at Miami. I don’t remember the game well. I see via paperwork that LeGarrette Blount started. I don’t remember if it was clear at this time that Martin would be a starter. He had a very good rookie year.
David Wilson
Very explosive, with 7 carries for 43 yards at Jacksonville and 2 receptions for another 26. I thought he might be an explosive complement in that backfield. Eventually got in Tom Coughlin’s doghouse. Had a huge game late in the year when they let him start.
Isaiah Pead
Second round pick by the Rams. I don’t remember exactly how it played out, but he never really got in the mix to start for him. Carried 10 times for 33 games at Indianapolis in his first game.
LaMichael James
Carried 4 times for 17 yards against Minnesota. Explosive, but he’s really small. Wasn’t in contention to knock Frank Gore out of the lineup but instead was trying to get change-of-pace carries away from Kendall Hunter, which didn’t happen.
Giovani Bernard
Carried 10 times for 28 yards and a touchdown at Atlanta. Also caught 3 passes for 16 yards. Looked pretty clear that he’d be sharing time with BenJarvus Green-Ellis, which is how it played out.
Eddie Lacy
Banged for 40 yards on 8 carries at St. Louis, consistently picking up yards after contact. Very clear that the rest of the league made a mistake letting him slide to the end of the second round, which is exactly how it played out.
LeVeon Bell
Just OK at Washington, running for 9 yards on 4 carries before leaving with an injury that sidelined him for the first month of the season.
Montee Ball
Non-descript 5 carries for 9 yards at San Francisco, where the reality was sinking in that he wouldn’t necessarily be a Day One starter for Denver (which was what I expected before camp opened).
Christine Michael
Ran for 89 yards on 16 carries at San Diego. Looked good, but everyone knew he’d have to wait for his turn behind Marshawn Lynch.
And here are four other backs from the last two years. None were selected in the first two rounds, but each had fantasy value in his first year.
Vick Ballard
Carried 6 times for 28 yards against the Rams. Showed some potential, and was a productive starter in the second half of the year.
Alfred Morris
Banged out 54 yards on 15 carries against Buffalo. He was just a sixth-round pick, but I remember him catching my eye. I remember him being a guy where we we’re saying, “let’s see what this guy does next week.” He played well enough in his second game that we thought he would start. He played well enough in his third that I knew he would start for sure and would be productive.
Zac Stacy
Carried 7 times for 23 yards at Cleveland. I thought Daryl Richardson had that starting job sewn up and didn’t have a lot of confidence that Stacy would even be their backup tailback.
Andre Ellington
He carried 10 times for 24 yards against Dallas, along with 2 catches. At this time, I didn’t suspect he’d have a really good rookie year. Ellington wasn’t even the first running back the team drafted that year (they chosen Stepfan Taylor a round earlier).
—Ian Allan