Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition, he explains why he's got a low grade on Cleveland running back Ben Tate. His ideal scoring system. Changes to his rookie/dynasty board. And more.
Question 1
First of all thanks Ian for helping me to a 9-4 record last year. My question revolves around the Cleveland running game. You mentioned that Shanahan will implement a run heavy offense,yet Tate is ranked 33rd and not in a committee. You didn't seem to show West any respect either. I'm curious to what you're seeing that I'm missing?
James COSTELLO (Portland, ME)
Let’s see if the team’s any good. They’ve finished in last place in their division in five of the last six years, and I have little confidence they’ll be any better. And I’m not sure which guy is their better back. Ben Tate is the starter now, but Terrance West might muscle in for a portion of the carries before long. West had one damn nice ankle-breaker cut in the Detroit game; wouldn’t surprise me if he’s starting by November. Tate hasn’t been durable; four years in a row he’s had problems with injuries. He’s also a poor receiver. Over the last two years, he averages 4.2 yards per reception, last among all running backs. Tate also was one of the worst short-yardage runners in the league last year, successful on only 6 of 14 carries when the Texans needed 1 yard to either score or keep a drive alive. So while there’s some intrigue with a seemingly decent line and the move to the zone-blocking scheme, I’ve got Tate in the wait-and-see file.
Question 2
I'd like your opinion on the make-up of our league. 12 teams. PPR. 1 point every 10 yards receiving and rushing. 1 pt every 25 yds passing. Field goals 0-39 yds are 3 pts. 40-55 are 5 pts. 55 and above are 10 points. All special teams and defensive TDs are 6 pts. Shutouts are 10 pts. Roster: 2 QB, 3 RB, 3 WR, 2 TE, 2 K, 1 DEF. Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF. Snake draft. No keepers. When our defense has a bye week we just shelve them for a week and pick up a replacement defense who you can keep but it costs a waiver or just get your old defense back the next week. Besides the two kicker thing, is there anything that seems completely out of the ordinary or that you think we need to change?
Johnny Bazzano (Santa Rosa, CA)
I don’t like only 1 point for 25 passing yards. With quarterbacks, rushing production is already overvalued at the more popular 1 point for 20 passing yards. Why make it worse? You’ve got big tiers with the kickers, with a 54-yard field worth the same as a 40. The league’s being scored by a website anyway, so take advantage of the technology. Field goals are worth 3 points, plus .1 points for every yard outside 30. That is, 41-yard field goal is worth 4.1 and a 54 is worth 5.4. Same with defenses. You’ve got 10 points for shutouts, but nothing when a defense remarkably holds an opponent to 3 or 9 points. Think about how great Seattle, Carolina and San Francisco were defensively last year. As solid as those defenses were, the Seahawks and Panthers each had only one shutout. The 49ers didn’t have any. The other 29 teams combined had only one shutout. It hasn’t been much better in other recent years – 5-6 shutouts each year since 2010. So that scoring rule must be adjusted, I think. It makes more sense, I think, to make 24 points the even-water mark, and award a point for every 2 points of real-life NFL scoring. So shutouts now worth 12 points. You allow 10 NFL points and that defense gets 7 points. If you allow 30, then that unit comes up with a negative 3. If you go to this kind of scoring, then I think everyone will be a lot more interested in defenses. We all think we have a good idea of most of the teams that will rank in the top half-dozen in NFL scoring defense.
Question 3
When building the custom sheet is it formulating based on total points expected only or does it also take into consideration the supply and demand of the top tiers at each position? Just seems you are very down on the RB this year, even when the drop off after the top 14 or so. Secondly, picking 11th/12th in a 12 team standard league, what are your thoughts there.. Rb/rb rb/wr.. Qb/rb etc... Seems like a tough spot. Lastly, the Julian Edelman love. That is super high where you have him. I still think a healthy Amendola is better. Now, healthy is a big word for him but thats a pretty bold ranking of a poor mans wes welker.
Bill Petilli (Larchmont, NY)
In building an overall list, I think you pull out some subset and go from there. Maybe a few as 80-120 players. Then you can compare values when you pick early versus late. If you take a quarterback in the first, second or third round, this is what you can expect. If you wait until the 9th round until you get a quarterback, you’ll get this guy. Same with WR and RB. What is the difference in value between those guys you might select in the first, second or third round relative to that last acceptable guy you might settle for in the 9th or 10th round? You compare the values across positions, and that’s how you get your overall board. As for picking 11th or 12th, you’ll have to see what’s there. I think you’ll be looking at Jimmy Graham, franchise receivers and the very best quarterbacks. There probably won’t be a running back there worth selecting. I reached a little for Giovani Bernard in the Fanex Draft, choosing him at 2.02, but that’s a PPR format. Different animal. As for the idea that Danny Amendola might be better than Julian Edelman, that’s not one I’ve even considered. Edelman averaged almost 9 catches per game in his final eight games last year. He caught 70 percent of the passes thrown to him last year, best among all 45 players who had at least 100 pass attempts. To me, that’s Edelman’s role, and Amendola is just a guy trying to win a roster spot.
Question 4
Long time fanatic and fan of your site. Took advantage of the Draftkings deal this year for the free year-long fanatic package. Thanks for that. It’s the best deal in fantasy football! On to my question. Could you rank the top 10 rookies in a dynasty format? Also what are your thoughts about drafting for need versus long term value? I've got the second and ninth pick this year and could really use an RB but would hate to pass up on a long-term impact player at number two to draft a middling RB that may last a year or two. Another wrinkle is Gerhart is available to be drafted also. One other thing is will you be doing more weekly coverage this year? Love the podcast and love to hear what you guys think are the values each week. Thanks in advance.
Chris Krumenauer (Oshkosh, WI)
Thanks for the kind words. Three guys, I think, are in the mix for you at No. 2. Carlos Hyde, Brandin Cooks and Sammy Watkins. Definitely will be one of those guys. Gerhart definitely will be gone before No. 9, so I guess we need five more. Bishop Sankey, Terrance West and Mike Evans should be gone. You would love to get one of those guys. But I think you’re going to have to settle for somebody a notch down. Candidates include Eric Ebron, Jordan Matthews, Jeremy Hill, Tre Mason and Devonta Freeman. The values on these guys will change (and somebody else could emerge). If I’m picking right now, I’d take a chance on Jordan Matthews. I’m aware he dropped some balls in his first game, but I like the cut of his jib. I could see him being the best wide receiver on that team next year.
Question 5
My league gives credit to individual players for return yards, how much should I bump guys like Patterson, Austin, Cooks and others? The custom scoring profile has no option for leagues with return yards, appreciate any help. Love your product and advice is always top notch
roy ilkenhans (Pasadena, TX)
I’m not ready to get into a detailed discussion of kick returners. I’ve only seen each team play once. Stuff will change. Austin and Cooks definitely will return punts, but I’m not signing off on Patterson. He’s a starting wide receiver this year, and they’re featured guy. Are they going to be willing to risk using him on returns? He’s damn good – 3 TDs last year and over 1,300 yards on kickoff returns – but that’s a big risk. Check back with me in a couple of weeks. I will point out that kickoff returns are more valuable than punt returns. About three times as many yards. NFL teams averaged 941 yards on kickoff returns last year; they were down at 322 on punt returns. So for these kind of guys, that’s your ballpark starting point. If a player returns punts for all 16 games, he should finish with about 300 yards on punt returns. The same guy on kickoffs should be at maybe 900.
Question 6
In a ten team league, what draft positions/slots are most valuable in a typical snake format?
Paul Karrmann (West Chester, PA)
You want a top-4 spot. Looking at just the first 10 rounds (after that, I’ll assume everyone will get pretty much who they want based on personal preferences). So I’m looking only at players 1 thru 100, with the 100th guy being worth zero, and there other guys worth some amount above zero (after the positions have been balanced). Those first four spots are all worth 381-383 total points. Then a big drop to the other six, which are all worth 354-365. So if you don’t have a top-4 spot, that’s kind of a 20-point gap you have to make up. The very worst spots project to be Nos. 9 and 10, which grade out at 356 and 354.
Question 7
I am in a keeper / dynasty league... and wondering if you will be offering the customized scoring system option for your keeper league list from the magazine. Also, any chance of getting an updated keeper list around Labor Day?
TOD EGE (Bothell, WA)
For dynasty leagues, the math gets too complicated to set it up in an automated way (with us projecting all of the stats and creating career expectancies for the players). There are too many variables involved, particularly with 30 percent of the teams getting new coaches each year. We do the one dynasty sheet by hand for the magazine. That’s assuming traditional scoring. If you’re in a TD-only league or a PPR league, you then have to blend those rankings against what you see in our 2014-season cheat sheets (which give you an idea of which guys we feel are more valuable in different systems). In these upcoming editions of the August newsletters, we will try to work in revised rookie rankings. Right now, the quarterback and tight end rankings are holding. At running back, let’s move Carlos Hyde to the front. Hyde-Sankey-West, and then Andre Williams moving up to fourth. At wide receiver, let’s move Cooks ahead of Watkins and Evans.
Question 8
I'm in a 12-team keeper league, where you keep two offensive and one defensive player. My potential offensive keepers were Josh Gordon and LeVeon Bell. Well, with Gordon facing suspension I need to make a deal. I pick 8th and have been offered my 3rd round pick for either Jordy Nelson or Alshon Jeffery and his 6th round pick. I think I have to make this deal, as my only other potential keepers would be Luck and Ryan Matthews. The picking will be slim at 8 as most studs are being kept. What do you think I should do?
DANIEL LADORE (Summerfield, NC)
This is a keeper league. Leaving the defensive players out of it entirely, when you save you’re giving up a third round pick and receiving a sixth, I assume this is setting aside that 24 offensive players are already gone. So inside of pick 3.08 for pick 6.06, it’s really pick 5.08 for pick 8.06 – the 55th pick for the 92nd pick. On my board, Matt Ryan is the 55th player, worth 32 adjusted points. He would be the worst-case scenario for the third-round pick. More likely you’d get a guy about 10 spots higher on your board, and he’d be worth about 40 points. At pick No. 92, the worst-case guy would be Mike Wallace, at 11 adjusted points. But more likely you’d get a player ranked about 20 spots higher – a player worth about 22 points. So there would be a net loss of about 18 points moving down from pick 3.06 to 6.08. In exchange, you’re getting to protect Jordy Nelson (75 points) rather than Andrew Luck (47 points). That’s a gain of 28 points. So overall, you’d come out 10 points ahead if you did the trade. It’s a win-win trade because the other team also benefits. He trades away Nelson, but he wasn’t going to keep him anyway. So at no cost, he gets to move up from pick 6.08 to pick 3.06, picking up about 18 points of value. In my eyes, the only slight concern is that you’re giving away the future rights to Andrew Luck (unless you re-draft him). If you feel that Luck will develop into a Brady-Brees-Manning type of guy, you have to factor in the value of being able to protect him in 2015, 2016 and beyond.
Question 9
I am in a 12 team PPR/Flex league, and I draft 10th. I am thinking of going full tilt receiver, and based on A&P and some mock drafts, was thinking of shooting for the following: 1.10 Dez Bryant. 2.03 Randall Cobb. 3.10 Shane Vereen. 4.03 Julian Edelman. 5.10 Ray Rice or Frank Gore. 6.03 Greg Olsen or Luck or Brady. 7.10 Stevan Ridley, Jones-Drew, Lamar Miller, or Pierre Thomas. First question, do you think targeting these guys in those rounds makes sense? Second question, what are your thoughts on drafting Vereen AND Ridley and starting both on certain weeks? In theory, I ought to capture 75 percent or more of New England's running game, including most rushing TDs. New England runs the ball surprisingly well most years. Problem is that Ridley is fumble prone. I might look to snag Bolden at the end of the draft. Is it worth it to go all in on a particular offense?
Andrew Napoli (Springfield, VA)
Ridley doesn’t catch any passes, making it tough for him to excel in that format. PPR. Think about two years ago, when everything went right for Ridley. He ran for 1,263 yards and 12 touchdowns. With limited receiving production that year, Ridley was still only the 15th-best running back in PPR. I selected Stevan Ridley in the Fanex FAD draft, but I got him at choice 8.10 – 94th overall (after 35 other running backs had been chosen). Lamar Miller makes a lot more sense in the seventh round.
Question 10
1st overall pick in 12 team standard point system (1QB, 2RB, 3WR) league. Who is your first pick or is it too early too tell. With the next two picks I am looking to go WR/RB or WR/WR. My only concern is if I wait till round 4 for my second RB most of the top 15-20 will be gone. Or does having two top 10 WRs outweigh and hopefully getting a Edelman to fill the final WR spot? What would be your strategy in rounds 2,3,4,5? Thank you so much, helped me win two leagues last year.
Grant Markgraf (Elmhurst, IL)
I’d take a running back with the top spot. One of those top 4. I haven’t spent a lot of time recently mulling the pros and cons of those guys. Forte is a little older and a little less talented, so he’ll probably wind up 4th on my personal board. LeSean McCoy or Jamaal Charles, most likely. They’re younger. But Peterson is a talented dude, and Minnesota’s offense might be a notch better this year. I would expect to select a pair of wide receivers with 2.12 and 3.01, and I’d probably hope to slip Julian Edelman to pick 4.12 (he might project out higher than the guys you select at 2.12 and 3.01). As for pick 5.01, you’ll have to see who’s there. Could be any position.
Question 11
I'm in a keeper league (10 Team PPR). The following people are being kept at TE: Gronkowski, J.Thomas, Cameron, and Pitta. Also someone is debating keeping Greg Olsen. Does this mean I should go all in for Jimmy Graham or settle for an underrated Rudolph at much less cost?
David Dunlap (Naperville, IL)
I don’t think you need to go “all in” for anybody. It’s a draft (or auction). Your job is to collect the best deals. Graham is worth a top-10 pick in that format, so he’s definitely an option. Rudolph is the 7th-best tight end on the board. He’s another guy who’d be nice to have at the right price.
Question 12
I'm in a keeper league that allows us to carry over one player each year. Have to give up a 5th round pick to keep them (unless they were drafted before round 6, then you give up a pick in the round before that). This year, I am getting Bernard as a 5th rounder, since I drafted him in the 6th last year. Prior year, I had Morris as a 5th rounder who I drafted in the 8th the prior year (but that didn't work out like I hoped). Given that league rule, are there some good running backs or receivers that you are projecting to go in the 6th round or later that you think have the potential to be a first/second rounder like Bernard this year? I don't want to sell out this years season and let this influence my draft too much - but am looking for some ideas for a good WR3 or RB3 that you think might put up RB1/WR1 numbers next year.
Charles Mobraten (Woodside, CA)
At running back, I think Carlos Hyde, Bishop Sankey and Terrance West are your most likely targets, in that order. At wide receiver, Brandin Cooks and Sammy Watkins are the two guys to potentially go after.
Question 13
Follow-up to my last question (help with custom rankings): Sorry, I should have specified that I was also looking for the " # for more than the minimum." 12-team, non-PPR, 20 man rosters. QB, 2RB, 3 WR, TE, Flex, K, D/ST. I really rely on the Top 300 list for drafting; it is one awesome feature! And yes, waiver moves are allowed. For what it's worth, in this league almost everybody selects 2 defenses due to the deep rosters. Thanks again!
Scott Anderson (Lakewood, CO)
I put the numbers in the other answer, and those are the ones to go with. When building an overall board, it may seem nice to have an overall top 300 board. But ultimately you don’t want players 150-300 having any role in determining who you’re taking in the first six rounds. To map out your strategy for the first 5-10 rounds, better to pull out the top 100 or 120 players to set those baselines. Create that list. Then (if you’ve got the time and if you have some computer ability) expand the numbers to create a top 200 or 300 (are there even 300 players?). On draft day, use your first list until those players are all gone, then switch over to the other list.