Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: updated team forecasts for all 32 offenses. An explanation of why Ian is low on Hakeem Nicks. And Ray Rice. And Knowshon Moreno. A pair of lesser offensive line that could submarine teams this year.
Question 1
Can you give us your updated TD totals per team after the second preseason games?
tavis medrano (San Gabriel, CA)
It’s a good question. It’s really something that should be worked into the regular product. I adjust player projections a few different ways. I can go after an individual player, changing his projected number of games (starts) or making him account for a bigger portion of his team’s production. For example, earlier I had tight ends Vernon Davis and Kyle Rudolph projected to account for over 30 percent of the TD catches by their teams. Both guys have been moved down in the last few weeks (with that production being shifted over mostly to Michael Crabtree and Cordarrelle Patterson). Or I can simply change the entire team forecast, which affects of those players. You move Minnesota up or down by 10 percent, and all of the Vikings players then have increased or decreased production. Anyway, here’s the expect numbers for each team – the feeder numbers. I’ve got Denver projected to score a league-high 52.6 TDs (offensive TDs) which is down almost 19 from last year. New England, Green Bay and New Orleans are the other three teams in that top tier. Five teams are in the bottom tier – all under 30 and at least 3 TDs behind everyone else. For each team, you see projected team passing yards (per game), TD passes (season total), rushing yards (per game) and rushing touchdowns (season total). Total touchdowns is simply the total of the rushing and passing scores.
| TEAM OFFENSIVE PROJECTIONS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | YdsP | TDP | YdsR | TDR | TDs |
| Denver | 313 | 37.6 | 112 | 15.0 | 52.6 |
| New England | 287 | 32.3 | 125 | 19.5 | 51.8 |
| Green Bay | 290 | 35.0 | 130 | 16.3 | 51.4 |
| New Orleans | 308 | 37.0 | 117 | 14.4 | 51.4 |
| Philadelphia | 252 | 28.2 | 148 | 16.8 | 45.0 |
| Chicago | 264 | 29.9 | 110 | 13.3 | 43.2 |
| Cincinnati | 253 | 28.0 | 119 | 14.9 | 42.9 |
| Seattle | 222 | 27.2 | 132 | 14.9 | 42.1 |
| Detroit | 290 | 29.3 | 103 | 11.8 | 41.1 |
| San Francisco | 225 | 24.2 | 142 | 16.8 | 41.0 |
| Dallas | 273 | 29.6 | 100 | 10.9 | 40.5 |
| Atlanta | 284 | 29.0 | 90 | 11.4 | 40.3 |
| Indianapolis | 260 | 26.7 | 110 | 13.3 | 40.0 |
| San Diego | 260 | 28.2 | 122 | 11.8 | 40.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 255 | 26.4 | 106 | 12.0 | 38.4 |
| Arizona | 272 | 27.2 | 90 | 10.9 | 38.1 |
| Washington | 250 | 24.8 | 125 | 12.8 | 37.6 |
| Minnesota | 238 | 23.0 | 123 | 14.4 | 37.4 |
| Kansas City | 222 | 22.4 | 123 | 14.1 | 36.5 |
| Carolina | 225 | 21.8 | 125 | 13.6 | 35.4 |
| Miami | 238 | 22.7 | 110 | 12.2 | 34.9 |
| St. Louis | 222 | 23.2 | 117 | 11.5 | 34.7 |
| Baltimore | 245 | 22.7 | 110 | 11.7 | 34.4 |
| NY Giants | 250 | 22.9 | 100 | 11.5 | 34.4 |
| Buffalo | 215 | 18.2 | 137 | 15.2 | 33.4 |
| Tennessee | 220 | 21.4 | 120 | 12.0 | 33.4 |
| NY Jets | 210 | 17.1 | 140 | 15.0 | 32.2 |
| Houston | 220 | 19.4 | 104 | 10.1 | 29.4 |
| Cleveland | 215 | 18.4 | 115 | 10.2 | 28.6 |
| Jacksonville | 225 | 19.2 | 95 | 9.4 | 28.6 |
| Oakland | 221 | 17.4 | 100 | 11.2 | 28.6 |
| Tampa Bay | 210 | 18.4 | 102 | 10.2 | 28.6 |
Question 2
Why not rank Hakeem Nicks on the Cheat Sheet? I think it makes sense to take a gamble on him for a 4th or 5th WR. I would much rather draft him over Stills, Miles Austin or Cole Beasley. Despite what has been reported on Nicks he has much upside explain please. I don't understand the support and rave review for Cutler but yet he is down ranked at 13? Rashad Jennings is ranked at 12? He will give up goal-line carries to Andre and has a poor offensive line in front of him. Williams looks to also take away maybe 30 or 40 percent of the work. Did you maybe over react to his big TD run last week. It was more about blocking and a bad defensive play more than anything.
David Kennedy (Steamburg, NY)
Fair criticism. I’ve been low on Nicks all along because I don’t think he’s got it anymore. I think he’s lost speed and playmaking ability. And the team that signed him is the same one that last year traded for Trent Richardson and signed Darrius Heyward-Bey. So I’ve been ranking Nicks as if maybe they just quietly demote him or waive him at some point. But I will concede that it seems like he’s going to be a starter. And with that apparently being the case, maybe he surprises me and finishes the year as a top-40 receiver. I’d rather have T.Y. Hilton or Reggie Wayne. With Jennings, your observations are valid. I also have concerns there about the offensive line. But Jenning (I think) will catch a lot of passes in that offense, and that really helps his fantasy value.
Question 3
After three 8-8 finishes in a row, the Cowboys look like a team ready to implode this year. That defense can't stop anyone, which could force Tony Romo into weekly shootouts. But I don't trust Romo's back. I think the wheels fall off, and Dallas goes something like 5-11. I find myself hoping somebody else will draft Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray. Am I just overthinking this?
Paul Owers (West Palm Beach, FL)
I was thinking the same thing earlier today. Suppose somebody came back from the future and told you that Dallas finished 5-11. Would you want to pick Romo, Murray and Bryant? That whole thing could fall apart. But that’s kind of how I’ve had them slotted all along. I’ve drafted six fantasy teams now, and skimming over the rosters, I don’t believe there’s a Dallas player on any of them.
Question 4
I see you are high on Lamar Miller and have him on more than one of your fantasy teams. I think a huge worry for Miller owners including yourself is Moreno. He showed up in camp out of shape but may take over the #1 R.B. soon. He finished 7th overall RBs in our league last season. I think you might want to move him up on your rankings. Teams who picked up Miller better grab Moreno if he is available, in my opinion. He may very will be the starter in Miami this season as he was in Denver last year.
BEN HOGEVOLL (Siletz, OR)
Miami signed Moreno with the intention that he’d come in and start, but I don’t think it’s playing out that way. Miller is simply a better back, I think, and he’s had the No. 1 job all along. Those would draft Miller, I agree, can fortify that investment by also selecting Moreno if possible. But that becomes a decision dictated by how the other owners in your league value Moreno. If one of the other owners thinks that Moreno will be a starter, his pricetag then becomes too high.
Question 5
Do you agree that offensive line play is a strong indicator of a team’s offensive potential? Have you seen enough to have a good feel of which offensive lines are the strongest/weakest?
Paul Karrmann (West Chester, PA)
I moved a few offenses down last week because of poor offensive line play – the Giants and Bucs. (And the way I’ve got this thing set up, when I alter a team projection, it changes all of the affected individual players, since they’re projected to account for a percentage of that projection). Tampa Bay’s line was simply atrocious against Jacksonville, with Josh McCown getting hit on every play.
Question 6
I'm curious. If Chicago has two of the best receivers in the league, why isn't Jay Cutler ranked in your top 10?
Chuck Penza (Hammonton, NJ)
Cutler is close. I have the Bears projected to averaged 264 passing yards, with 30 TD passes. So straight off my numbers, Chicago projects to rank 8th in passing (using 6 points for TD passes and 1 for every 10 passing yards). But Cutler hasn’t been as durable as a lot of the other quarterbacks, so I have him projected to play about a half game fewer than the other top quarterbacks. This drops Cutler down to 12th.
Question 7
Hearing you breaking down the Counting Crows concert on the podcast was good stuff, funny. So our draft will take place next Saturday 8/23, which means even if Montee Ball does suit up for a few carries, we won't see it before it matters (Denver plays late Saturday night). I sit at pick 6 in a 12 team .5 ppr league and let’s say top 5 picks go McCoy, AP, Charles, Lacy and Forte which is how it will likely go. For whatever reason I want to pass on Lynch and Calvin Johnson. I was pretty much set on Ball before the appendectomy. I know you dropped him slightly, but would he creep right back up to consideration there if in fact he doesn't suit up? What if he doesn't play but they say he's back to 100% for the opener? Really need to know how to play this, pivotal player and scenario particularly right there in the middle of Round 1. Thanks.
Russell Ditnes (Jamison, PA)
Not a guy who’d be in the mix for me at all. In that kind of format, he’s just the 25th player on my board. I’d be looking to get Ball in the early third round. If you like him the correct course is probably to get a big-time pass catcher in the first round – one of the two Georgia Tech guys – then select Ball at 2.07. If you really think Ball is the next big thing and you have to have him, then a trade down could be in order. Swap first- and second-round picks with the team picking 9th, 10th, 11th or 12th.
Question 8
I'm not sure if there's something wrong with the custom auction values regarding tight ends, or if you just value them differently than I do. Despite entering in the profile that TEs are separate from WRs, the auction values come out exactly as if they are wideouts. Graham is predicted to score less than Randall Cobb and his auction value is below Cobb. Julius Thomas comes out worth less than TY Hilton. Graham comes out as 19th in the top 50, making him a low second rounder at best. That just seems really off to me. The supply/demand at TE is completely different at TE than at WR; shouldn't the auction values reflect that? Or do you really feel they're not worth any more?
BILL REHOR (Culver City, CA)
The “value” of each guy is contingent on what you can get later. Suppose you feel that you want to get both a WR and a TE by about the 9th or 10th round. Then you can measure the relative values of those guys by what you’ll get later. Suppose you feel you can get one of the Pennsylvania tight ends in the 10th round – Heath Miller Zach Ertz. Those guys project to score about 91 points. If you wait on a tight end, that’s what you’ll end up with. If you instead take Jimmy Graham in the first or second round, you’ll get 164 points. Some Graham’s relative value is 73 points. He’s 73 points better than the option of waiting until late to get a tight end. At wide receiver, I will guess that if you wait until the 9th or 10th round, you will get somebody like Dwayne Bowe, Golden Tate or Anquan Boldin. These guys are worth 106 points. That’s the “what if I wait until late” level at wide receiver. So if you’re selecting a wide receiver early, he had better be worth at least 179 points (making him 73 points better). On the current board in front of me, I see three wide receivers worth at least 179 – Jordy Nelson and the two Georgia Tech guys. This is how it works. You can get in and tweak the numbers (that is, adjust where that baseline is (8th, 9th, 10th, 12th round, etc.) by going into the custom scoring settings. There’s an “auction values” box. Click on it. There are some questions you answer, and think about them carefully. The ones asking about “how many will be selected” are easy enough – there just the total number that will be selected. But the numbers that drive the thing are the “how many will go for more than $1.00 minimum”). Those are the numbers that drive the overall player list. If you have only 60 players (all positions) there, you’re asking the computer to set rankings based on only the first five rounds of the draft. If you have 120 players there, you’re telling the computer that you think the first 10 rounds are all important. I want you to have 100-120 measurable players in those categories. I don’t care so much what happens once we get into the 12th, 13th rounds and beyond.
Question 9
I am wondering why you ranked Ray Rice as high as 13th running back and now have dropped him 10 spots. Is there reasoning behind this besides the fact he has a two-game suspension?
Michael Holmburg (Glenolden, PA)
The two-game suspension was a plus. I thought he was going to be down for at least four. Rice moved down on my board because of growing concerns that it will be more of a one-two punch situation in Baltimore, with Bernard Pierce getting almost as many carries. I thought they both looked pretty good in the opener against the 49ers.
Question 10
I'm in several dynasty leagues that keep 12 players so your Dynasty League Cheat Sheet is my part of the magazine. You've helped me win 20 Super Bowls in a total of 88 fantasy seasons. As we move through the preseason, please share which players you would move up or down significantly, as well as add or drop altogether.
JOHN BENNETT (Chino, CA)
With the rookies, I’m comfortable with the quarterback rankings. With running backs, let’s more Carlos Hyde to No. 1, maybe around 13th among running backs. Not a ton of difference between the next four rookie runners: Bishop Sankey, Terrance West, Devonta Freeman and Andre Williams. A drop down to Jeremy Hill, Tre Mason, Charles Sims, KaDeem Carey and Jerick McKinnon. At tight end, I think Eric Ebron, Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Jace Amaro are all going to be 2015 guys. Looks like Richard Rodgers is becoming the guy in Green Bay, so he’d now be up with those guys. With wide receivers, I think Brandin Cooks and Sammy Watkins are the big two, with maybe no others in the top 30 as dynasty receivers. Mike Evans, Jordan Matthews, Odell Beckham and Kelvin Benjamin (in that order) would be the next ones I would consider.
Question 11
I am in a 10-team, PPR for rb only, 2 keeper league(1 qb,2 rb, 3 wr, 1 te). 6 pts for all tds. We lose the round that the player was picked the previous year. I'm choosing out of Nelson for a 7th, Luck (11th), Ellington, & Rashad Jennings for 13th...I'd lose 13 & 14 for both. I'm leaning towards Ellington and Jennings for 13 & 14. Seems like the no-brainers. I guess I can add that I have Charles but I'm comfortable dumping him instead of losing my 1st. Any argument for the others on my list?
Troy Smith (Mobile, AL)
I think you can think some about Jordy Nelson. Look at how productive he is and weigh that against the wide receiver you would select in the seventh round. Nelson will be a top-5 receiver. Then look at the value of Ellington and Jennings relative to what you can select in 13th and 14th. I think the numbers are pretty similar. So why are we letting this franchise guy (Nelson) go? But I it’s a tough call. Strictly off the numbers, the correct move is to go with Ellington and Jennings.
Question 12
Could you rank the offensive line for all teams?
MIKE MCPHERSON (Chico, CA)
We’ve got the rankings on page 91 of the magazine, and after we get a slightly longer look at each of the first-unit offenses this weekend, it will be time to take another look at those. We’ll get that posted next week. For me, the weakest two offensive lines appear to belong the Bucs and the Giants.
Question 13
I don't see the IDP rankings in "my stuff". Are you guys not producing an IDP list this year?
Jeff Carter (Franklin, TN)
There are two areas you can see IDP rankings. There’s an Excel file titled “2014 stat projections”. Open that and look at the fourth tab. In there, you’ll see defensive stat projections crafted by Andy Richardson. Tackles, Assists, Sacks, Interceptions, Fumbles and Touchdowns for each player. Rankings for those IDP are at the end of the PDF file. Individual Defensive Players are not in the customizable rankings at this time.
Question 14
Long time FFI subscriber & fan of your info & analysis. I have the #1 pick this year, and keep going back & forth between Charles, McCoy, Forte & somewhat Peterson. You currently have Charles #1. Do you keep keep track of how your pre-draft #1s have fared over the years?
MARK STROMBERG (Denver, CO)
I’ve been going back and forth myself. This early, I haven’t spent a lot of time mulling between those three. When you start looking at it in terms of age, it’s really Charles and McCoy (Peterson and Forte are getting a little older). Scoring system can affect it. Let me see those teams in the second and third preseason games, then I’ll lock down on either Charles or McCoy. Right now, I think I’m going McCoy in a standard format and Charles in a PPR. Charles definitely will catch more passes.
Question 15
With NFL’s new emphasis on rules, defensive backs can’t touch receivers past five yards. That means defenses must take men out of the box to stay with fast receivers. So that gives running backs more room to run. What are your thoughts? Been with Fantasy Index since 1991. Keep up the fine work.
CRAIG LEEDY (Sacramento, CA)
I expect we might see half of the teams in the league finish with at least 25 TD passes and average over 250 passing yards. Even more of what we saw last year. The only hope for defenses nowadays seems to be based around getting to the quarterback even faster. Sack numbers were way up last year.
Question 16
Congrats on another great magazine. Been a reader for a decade. Wanted to ask your advice on a keeper for my league: 10-team, re-draft with 1 keeper, PPR, Start 2 RB, 4 receivers, 2 flex, no distinctions made between TE and WR. Keep 1: Julius Thomas for an 8th round pick, Keenan Allen for an 8th round pick, Gio Bernard for a 6th round pick. Thoughts?
pete cliento (Pt Pleasant, NJ)
I’ll take Bernard. He’s a second-round pick, and you’re getting him at the cost of a sixth. That’s better than getting a fourth-round value (Allen or Thomas) for an eighth-rounder.
Question 17
I am in a 16-team league QBs get 6 pts passing TD and all rushing and receiving TDs are worth 6 as well. Quarterbacks get 1 pt for 20 yards passing. Running backs get and 1 pt for every 10 yards rushing/receiving. In any event I can't format custom scoring for a 16 team league. Clearly qb's are at a premium especially the upper echelon, any thoughts on rankings given these parameters?
Mike Conway (Nanuet, NY)
So you’re saying you have different scoring systems for different players, and you want that handled, correct? Looks like we’re not set up to handle that, but that’s one we should add in there. I know there are leagues that give more credit for catches when they go to tight ends than wide receivers or running backs. We’ll get that added. For now, just create two different scoring profiles. One for quarterbacks. One for the other guys. For relative value, use the 8th-round rule. What quarterback can you get in the 8th round? The other guys get credit for production above and beyond that mark. Example: maybe Carson Palmer or Ryan Tannehill might be available in the 8th round. They’ll give you about 300 points. So the quarterbacks who’ll score about 400 (Brees, Manning) would be “worth” 100 points (400 minus 300). Then do the same thing with your RB, WR and TE (who can be set up in a different scoring profile).
Question 18
16 team ppr league 6 pts all yds. You can start 1 rb and 3 wr plus te or 2 and 2 , I have 15th pick and Crabtree and Harvin as keepers. I think big 3 qbs , top 5 rbs , top 4 wrs and Jimmy Graham are all off board. Originally I wanted to go wr wr and get some combination of Marshall , Green, Jones, Nelson depending on who's left and target a Vereen , Jennings , Ingram , Gerhart with the next pick. But it would force me to not take a wr in rounds 2-5 and possibly miss out on a wr I like that dropped. I think wr we gets me the most points with those 2 picks but would a better option be to take Murray, Bell, Bernard or Ball along with one of the receivers above based on my keepers. Also with tds bring 6 pts and 16 teans would you take a qb like Luck, Brady, Ryan, Stafford with the 3rd or 4th rd pick (all won't be there but one should) or roll the dice on a Cutler, Palmer, Dalton maybe even RG3 a couple rounds later? With 16 teams you can't wait too long like they do in all the expert leagues or you end up with Flacco as your qb.
Vernon Jones (Rockville, MD)
With 6 points for all touchdowns, that increases the value of quarterbacks, but you’re not going to get Manning-Brees-Rodgers with the 15th pick. Definitely one of those picks – 15 and 18 – must be a good pass-catching receiver. One of the 90-catch guys. If you were starting from scratch, I’d say two wide receivers with those picks. But you’re apparently keeping Crabtree and Harvin, so you’ve kind of hitched your wagon to those guys (although I don’t like Harvin in that format). So probably best to get a running. Maybe you get lucky and have access to Bernard or Ball. With the depth at quarterback, I think you can wait until round three, four or maybe even five.
Question 19
I entered a scoring system for my league but all I get is ff index scoring cheat sheets. How do I get a draft/weekly cheat sheet with my scoring system?
VAL LUKOWSKI (Rhinelander, WI)
Go to “Your Stuff”. Click on “Your Scoring Profiles”. Click on “Create a new Scoring System”. Click on “Continue”. Fill out the specs of your scoring system and give it a name. Then it will be appear as one of the options you can look at each week. It will stay there for the rest of the season (and for future years) and you’ll always be able to use that system to interface with the scoring projections we upload.