Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Deciding how much weight to give ADP on draft day. Pondering whether Fantasy Index has overrated Brandin Cooks and Alshon Jeffery. And exploring the play-calling tendencies of the league's new offensive coordinators?
Question 1
I've been listening to the Podcast over the last few weeks, and you have repeatedly mentioned that you think Brandin Cooks is going to catch 80-plus balls in New Orleans. While I agree he's a talented young player, and capable of big things, what makes you so sure of him posting 80 or more receptions? We haven't even seen how the Saints are going to use him yet. One of the things that I like about your analysis is that you often put things in a historical context. For example, you might say something like, "No rookie TE has ever gone over XXX amount of yards in a season, so don't bet on Player Y being that productive right away." Well in this case, history is not on Cooks' side. From what I could discover, only 3 WRs in the history of the NFL have caught 80+ passes in their rookie season (Anquan Boldin, Eddie Royal and Terry Glenn). Furthermore, in Drew Brees' eight seasons in New Orleans, only 1 WR has caught 80+ passes in a season (Marques Colston). The Saints have gotten big reception totals out of Jimmy Graham, Darren Sproles and Reggie Bush in the Brees era, but he likes to spread things around, especially to his WRs. I am very interested in Cooks this year, but I would love to hear more on why you think he's going to be such a reception monster in his rookie season.
Don Goss (Wakefield, MA)
It’s a fair criticism. I’ve gotten pretty excited about Cooks, and it’s still early. Sometimes this happens. I start to zero in on an outcome. You may remember that a year ago, I was very high on Tavon Austin. Then the preseason games started, and it became clear he wasn’t going to be nearly as good as I expected. In hindsight, it would have been smarter to put a cool, wait-and-see ranking on Austin. But Cooks, I think, is the real deal. The Saints really wanted him; they traded up seven spots to get him. This wasn’t a deal where they were holding the 20th pick of the draft, and when they were on the clock said, “well, gee, there’s Brandin Cooks; he doesn’t really fit our scheme, but I guess we could develop him, and maybe he’d help us in 2015.” The intention with Cooks, I think, is to add an explosive element. Darren Sproles averaged 5.3 catches per game in that offense over the last three years (5.3 x 16 games = 85 catches per 16-game season); he’s gone, and I believe they’re plugging Cooks into that kind of a role. They’ll throw him short balls and let him create. Sproles was a running back, of course, while Cooks is a wide receiver, but I think they can use him in the same kind of way. He runs a 4.33, so they can also sneak him deep at times, but I think the intention is to throw him short balls and let him raise hell. New Orleans doesn’t have a running back now with that kind of skill set. The Saints also have Kenny Stills and Robert Meachem and Joseph Morgan, of course, but think about how they use those guys. They tend to rotate them through and have them run vertical routes, pulling guys away from the line of scrimmage (clearing space so they can pass to Cooks, running backs and Jimmy Graham). They’ve also got Marques Colston, but he’s an old, slow guy with bad knees; I’m not sure he’ll even be on the team in 2015. Cooks is the new, key part to that passing offense. This is all just theory, of course. It hasn’t been field tested. But I keep reading that Cooks has been the star of the team’s camp. Assuming this all checks out, I think we have to think about the possibility that Cooks will catch 80 passes and score some damn nice touchdowns. I might be a little bit early in starting to think of him as a top-20 receiver. The more logical progression would be to leave him buried around No. 35 for another two weeks and say that, “hey, this guy looks like he might be pretty good.” But my hunch is that come late August, most everyone who’s paying attention will have Cooks ranked up around where I have him right now.
Question 2
Which teams have new offensive coordinators and of them which ones think run first vs. pass first.
DARRELL PRESTELLA (Carson City, NV)
A dozen teams have new guys calling the plays. In alphabetical order by team: Gary Kubiak takes over in Baltimore; will impement a zone-blocking run scheme and tends to heavily utilize tight ends. Hue Jackson is running Cincinnati’s offense. Running is the word. In his two years in Oakland, Jackson’s offenses ranked 2nd and 7th in rushington. Kyle Shanahan takes over in Cleveland. That was a pass-crazy offense last year; it should be more of a run-dominated scheme now, with a zone-blocking system. Scott Linehan isn’t the offensive coordinator in Dallas, but he’ll call the plays this year. He’s talking about more rushing, but we’ll see; that hasn’t been his history during his lengthy career. Joe Lombardi is calling the plays in Detroit; he was with New Orleans last year and is implementing the same kind of system. Bill O’Brien will run Houston’s offense. At Penn State, he did a good job of getting the ball in his featured receiver’s hands. Bill Lazor takes over Miami’s offense. He’s trying to implement some of the hurry-up and spread techniques they used in Philadelphia. Norv Turner is the offensive coordinator in Minnesota. He’s known for doing nice things with tailbacks, but each of his last two offenses (San Diego, Cleveland) have thrown 26 TDs while running for only 4 touchdons. Ben McAdoo is putting in a Packers-style offense with the Giants. In their preseason opener, they used exclusively three-receiver sets, with the ball coming out really quick. Jeff Tedford will run the Tampa Bay offense. He’s a sleeper-type guy, who’s done some really good things at the college level and the CFL but hasn’t ever worked in the NFL. He always rotated his tailbacks at Cal. He was good enough in college to get four lesser quarterbacks drafted in the first rond – Trent Dilfer, Akili Smith, Joey Harrington and Kyle Boller. Ken Whisenhunt will make the key calls in Tennessee. He got San Diego’s running game rolling in the second half of last year. Was more of a pass guy when he was coaching Arizona. And finally, Jay Gruden takes over in Washington, where he’s got lots of weapons to work with. Gruden was pretty balanced in Cincinnati.
Question 3
Could I get your opinion again on utilizing some of the customized Cheat Sheets? Using the FFPC spreadsheet as an example, it projects a guy like Julian Edelman extremely high. I was able to select him in the 6th round and felt very good about that and clearly I didn't need to select him as early as perhaps your projections suggest. I know these sheets are more of a guide than anything, but would you recommend taking this Cheat Sheet and compare it to some ADP numbers for the FFPC leagues to get an idea on strategy? In an early draft I just completed, I felt like I was almost making it harder on myself bouncing around the sheet taking guys that were farther down the list and holding out hope that the guys projected higher would fall if they seemed a little off the radar and still focus on building a complete team. Sometimes it worked, sometimes it bit me.
WILL SAYRE (Sacramento, CA)
I don’t give much weight to ADP numbers. Where do they come from? How accurate are they? If they’re culled from drafts over the last few months, they can be hopelessly outdated. Right now at MyFantasyLeague.com, for example, Knowshon Moreno has a better ADP number than Lamar Miller. But so what? Miller is going to be the starter there, and he’s a lot better than Moreno. So what does ADP tell us? Well, if you want to assume the other 11 guys in your league are dummies who’d take Moreno before Miller, then have at it, I guess. But if one of those 11 guys gets it right and has Miller higher, then you lose out on a nice mid-round value. More notably, are these ADP numbers even from a matching scoring system? Julian Edelman, for example, is a lot more valuable in a PPR format. Ultimately, most of this ADP data is pretty useless. The only value, I think, is using it to perhaps help you hold off on a player for a round or two. I’ve run into that issue a couple of times, where I’ve wanted to pick Edelman in the second round but have held off, believing he’d be there in the third. This is also an issue right now with Brandin Cooks. I’ve got him well up on my draft board, so when he comes up, you have to decide whether you can wait for another round or two.
Question 4
Why all the love for Alshon Jeffery? 2013 - 89 rec-1421 yds - 7 td.... nice numbers. But, in weeks 5 and 13, Jeffery totaled 22 of those 89 receptions (25% of season total), 467 yards (33%) and 3 td (43%). You take away those 2 monster outings and Jeffery drops at least a tier, or two, IMO. In addition, Cutler. Pretty good QB when he is on the field. But, last year he missed all, or for the most part, 7 games. In 2011, he appeared in only 10 games. For whatever reason, 2 out of the last 3 years, Cutler has been off the field a considerable amount and that makes Jeffery a risky investment if you are considering a top 10 WR return.
JASON MATTERN (Wintersville, OH)
Calvin Johnson caught 29 passes for 662 yards and 5 TDs in his three biggest games. Is he also being moved down your draft board? Demaryius Thomas caught 12 passes for 268 and 5 TDs in his two biggest games. One of the reasons we select these franchise-type receivers like Jeffery, Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson and A.J. Green is because we know that at some point during the year, they’re going to have that monster game that lifts the fantasy franchise to a victory.
Question 5
Please rank your top backup RBs that could end up starting along with their ADP.
STEVE WEBER (Paso Robles, CA)
I like to zero in on the guys who could be really special if they get a chance. Either they’re really good, or the teams around them are great (and tend to use just one back). Leagues and formats vary, but these guys should be on fantasy rosters: Bernard Pierce, Jeremy Hill, Terrance West, LeGarrette Blount, Andre Brown, Ahmad Bradshaw, Shonn Greene, Ronnie Hillman, Knile Davis, Donald Brown, Andre Williams, Chris Polk, KaDeem Carey, James Starks, Jerick McKinnon, Devonta Freeman, Tre Mason, Christine Michael and Carlos Hyde.
Question 6
In a 10-team league (normal scoring), I can hold over one of these 3 player for a 7-round pick: Edelman, Crabtree or E. Sanders. Are any worth holding over?
Paul Karrmann (West Chester, PA)
Sign me up for Edelman. I think he’ll catch 100-plus balls.
Question 7
My first question after being a super fanatic for the past 5-years or so! I'm in a 12-person PPR league with teams able to keep one player drafted last year after round 3 and give up this year’s pick 2-rounds earlier. Would you keep bernard by giving up a 5th or alshon jeffrey by giving up a 8th round pick? Also a new silly rule is i get to pick my draft slot, i'm on the clock and thus far, 1-3 is gone, as well as 11. which draft slot should I select? thanks so much for your guidance over the years, and helping me with these particular questions.
DENNIS SPRINGER (Philadelphia, PA)
I’ve got Bernard higher than Jeffery on my board, but Jeffery is kind of in the same ballpark. So I think the correct move is to protect the wide receiver and keep that fifth-round draft pick. With a wide receiver in your back pocket, it probably would work pretty well to select a running back in the first round, then follow that with a fair of franchise-type receivers in the second and third rounds. Pick No. 4 probably would be the best for this kind of approach. Hopefully, you’d get either McCoy, Charles, Peterson, Forte or Lacy with that first-round pick, and I think there would be good wide receivers available in the next two rounds. Antonio Brown, Randall Cobb, Julian Edelman – guys like that.
Question 8
Can you go ahead and add "Redskins" to the team name, instead of just "Washington?"
Ryan Peterson (Phoenix, AZ)
I look forward to this issue being resolved, whether it’s a year or two or three down the line. It’s an annoying distraction. If an expansion team was joining the league and announced that it would be naming its team the Redskins, they would be laughed out of the building. The owners wouldn’t allow it. I liked Keith Olbermann’s suggestion: leave the uniform, logo and colors in place, but change the name to the Washington Americans.
Question 9
First thank you for all the great work you do all year, I am in a big money league , where we start 2 QBs (10 teams). I am picking 8th. I always take QB in first round and am in love with Foles and Stafford this year. Where would you rank both QBs in a 2-QB league, (3 starting RBs and 3 WRs) and would you take the them with 8th and 14th pick? Scoring is 7 for passing TDs and 10 for rushing and receiving.
ORLA KRISTENSEN (Larkspur, CA)
You don’t mention yards. I’ll assume 1 for 10 yards rushing and 1 for 20 yards passing, but I don’t think it matters either way. In that kind of format, I think Manning-Brees-Rodgers are the first three picks. After that, I think it’s probably five running backs who should follow. In addition to starting double quarterbacks, you’re also starting three running backs, and that offsets the increase some. The running backs also will run out. So I think you’re looking at a running back with that 8th pick, probably followed by a passer at No. 14. All of this can be set up in the custom cheat sheet area at the website. You put in your league’s scoring system, and set up the baseline values in the auction values section (say you’re in an auction league, even if you’re not).
Question 10
I got lucky and got the first pick of our draft. It is a 10-team keeper league starting 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1RB/WR, 1WR/TE. I will effectively have the 1st and 7th picks and will be keeping Lacy, Bernard, Vereen, and Julius Thomas. I expect the following players to be available at the start of the draft. D. Thomas, Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Arian Foster, Brandon Marshall, Randall Cobb and Jimmy Graham. Lacy and Bernard cost me my 3rd and 4th picks so these first two picks are pretty critical. What would be your strategy especially regarding Jimmy Graham. If I take him I could start him at the Wr/TE spot and use Julius at TE but with so many really good WRs available that can also play at WR/TE I am not sure that is the right move. Of course by selecting Graham and in essence making him a WR I take away any advantage one of my league mates may get in having a big advantage at the TE position and effectively make Julius the #1 TE in our league. Thoughts?
Chris Holland ()
No, no, no. Such a strategy hurts one other team in the league – the team that would have selected Jimmy Graham. But it helps the other eight, because you’re sacrificing points by carrying two elite tight ends. When Graham plays as a WR-TE, he must be compared to the available wide receivers. Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant should be about 25 points better than Graham, so they make a lot more sense.
Question 11
My oldest league (18th year) has added a starting lineup spot this year; I was hoping you could help me set up the "# of players taken" part of the custom scoring profile on the website. 12 teams, 20 player rosters, non-PPR, all TDs 6 pts. Starting lineups QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, Flex, K, DST. Thanks for all the help!
Scott Anderson (Lakewood, CO)
Waiver moves are allowed, right? So no need to select more than one kicker or defense? I’d go with 32 quarterbacks, 75 running backs, 85 wide receivers, 22 tight ends, 13 kickers and 13 defenses.
Question 12
Actually had another question. Any thoughts on drafting early? Stay away from them? Change strategy at all? I did one on 'August 4th and it just felt really early. I recall last year, many of the early drafts, a guy like Julius Thomas didn't even get drafted and was on waivers for week 1. I guess it could go the other way as well with injuries or perhaps you get a guy very late that moves up the draft board as the preseason goes on.
WILL SAYRE (Sacramento, CA)
Agree that later is better. Ideal is after the third week of the preseason.