I have a final thought on Strength of Schedule before we head into our drafts. I am not a huge fan of this statistic, as we have discussed in the past many times. But it’s one of the factors that we look at it, and I think it can be used to power some key decisions in drafts this year.
Consider the following:
The NFC West is the best division in football: The Seahawks and 49ers played in the NFC Championship last year, the Cardinals went 10-6, and the Rams can be a tough out.
The AFC West is the 2nd-best divsion: Three teams went to the playoffs last year. The Raiders are weak, and there’s no getting around that.
The NFC East is the worst division: The Cowboys and Giants both look like last-place teams, and Washington might not be much better.
The AFC South is the next-worst division: The Colts are fine – a playoff team – but the other three (Houston, Tennessee, Jacksonville) don’t look any better than that trifecta at the bottom of the NFC East.
Now look at the schedule. The NFC West pairs up against the AFC West. Those two good divisions are going to beat up on each other. The Raiders, lord have mercy, have to play 10 games against those other seven teams.
The AFC South and NFC East, meanwhile, are paired up. That means the Colts and Eagles (the two runaway division winners there) get the benefit of playing nine games each against those lesser opponents.
We should be keeping this in mind at fantasy drafts. Colts and Eagles should go up. As in Nick Foles and Andrew Luck could be the quarterbacks you want. It’s another check in the Zach Ertz column. It’s maybe the factor that pushes LeSean McCoy ahead of those other franchise running backs at the top of the board. As for guys like Reggie Wayne, Hakeem Nicks and Trent Richardson, I will keep in mind that SOS isn’t a silver bullet. Wayne is still coming off ACL surgery, and Nicks and Richardson still look like turds. Maybe you move those guys up some, but you’re still hoping somebody else drafts them.
On the other side of the coin, these franchise-type guys in those two West divisions, I think you can think about discounting them a little. Five of those teams made the playoffs last year and the Cardinals won 10 games. That can’t happen again; some of those teams need to fall off. The 49ers, for one, took a lot of shots in the offseason.
Forget what the official numbers show. This is what I consider to be the real strength of schedule chart for 2014. Seven of the eight easiest schedules belong to teams in the NFC East and AFC South. (The one other easy schedule team sneaking in there is Pittsburgh.). The West teams have the four hardest schedules, and the other four aren’t far behind.
For the numbers below, they do not include Week 17 (I believe most of you are done before that last week).
| ADJUSTED STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | T |
| Tennessee | 108 | 131 | 1 |
| Houston | 110 | 130 | 0 |
| Pittsburgh | 112 | 128 | 0 |
| Indianapolis | 113 | 126 | 1 |
| NY Giants | 113 | 126 | 1 |
| Washington | 114 | 126 | 0 |
| Jacksonville | 115 | 124 | 1 |
| Philadelphia | 115 | 124 | 1 |
| Cleveland | 115 | 124 | 1 |
| Baltimore | 117 | 122 | 1 |
| Buffalo | 117 | 122 | 1 |
| New Orleans | 119 | 121 | 0 |
| Cincinnati | 119 | 121 | 0 |
| Atlanta | 120 | 120 | 0 |
| Detroit | 120 | 119 | 1 |
| New England | 121 | 118 | 1 |
| Chicago | 121 | 118 | 1 |
| Minnesota | 121 | 118 | 1 |
| St. Louis | 121 | 118 | 1 |
| Tampa Bay | 122 | 117 | 1 |
| Dallas | 123 | 117 | 0 |
| Arizona | 123 | 116 | 1 |
| Carolina | 124 | 116 | 0 |
| Miami | 124 | 116 | 0 |
| San Diego | 124 | 115 | 1 |
| Seattle | 125 | 115 | 0 |
| Green Bay | 125 | 115 | 0 |
| NY Jets | 125 | 115 | 0 |
| Oakland | 125 | 114 | 1 |
| Kansas City | 126 | 114 | 0 |
| Denver | 127 | 113 | 0 |
| San Francisco | 127 | 112 | 1 |
The chart above is built from “power ranking” win-loss numbers. That is, I guessed how many games each team would win if it were to play 16 against average opposition. I’ve got Seattle, Denver and New England as the league’s best three teams. I’ve got Houston, Tampa Bay, Cleveland and Oakland at the bottom.
These win-loss numbers are similar to what you might find posted as over-under betting lines at a casino.
| FEEDER RECORDS (Power Rankings) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | T |
| Seattle | 12 | 4 | 0 |
| Denver | 12 | 4 | 0 |
| New England | 11 | 4 | 1 |
| New Orleans | 10 | 5 | 1 |
| Philadelphia | 10 | 6 | 0 |
| Green Bay | 10 | 6 | 0 |
| Carolina | 10 | 6 | 0 |
| Cincinnati | 9 | 6 | 1 |
| San Francisco | 9 | 6 | 1 |
| Indianapolis | 9 | 6 | 1 |
| San Diego | 9 | 7 | 0 |
| Chicago | 9 | 7 | 0 |
| Baltimore | 9 | 7 | 0 |
| Pittsburgh | 9 | 7 | 0 |
| Arizona | 8 | 7 | 1 |
| Kansas City | 8 | 7 | 1 |
| Miami | 7 | 8 | 1 |
| Detroit | 7 | 8 | 1 |
| NY Jets | 7 | 8 | 1 |
| Tennessee | 7 | 9 | 0 |
| Atlanta | 7 | 9 | 0 |
| NY Giants | 6 | 9 | 1 |
| Washington | 6 | 9 | 1 |
| St. Louis | 6 | 9 | 1 |
| Minnesota | 6 | 9 | 1 |
| Buffalo | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| Jacksonville | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| Dallas | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| Houston | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Tampa Bay | 4 | 11 | 1 |
| Cleveland | 4 | 11 | 1 |
| Oakland | 4 | 12 | 0 |
—Ian Allan