Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. How best to use (or not use) ADP data. Is Zac Stacy a high-risk bust candidate? And poking around at some of the big-picture trends that have affected player values versus previous years.
Question 1
In my league, we have one starting QB plus a flex position at which we allow QBs, so many teams will end up starting their QB2. Further, owners in this league always tend to value QB's too highly. Several of my co-owners are coaches, and they live and die by the "QB is the most important position on the field" mantra, regardless of any magazine's scoring projections. By the end of the 3rd round, all of the top 10 QBs will likely be gone. Given these factors, should I adjust my draft strategy to place extra value on QB's?
Jacob Wilson (Crandall, TX)
I’m with your co-owners on this one. According to my projections, the top 26 point producers in your league will all be quarterbacks. Even guys like Jake Locker, E.J. Manuel, Sam Bradford, Matt Cassel and Eli Manning should finish with more total fantasy points than the franchise players at other positions like Calvin Johnson and LeSean McCoy. So heading into your draft, a primary goal should be to walk away with two quarterbacks who can really play. You’re going to want a quarterback in that flex position. I potentially would start with two quarterbacks, and I would be surprised if I ever didn’t select my second quarterback by the end of the fourth round. As for your question on an overall top 100, it’s available on the website. Click on “Your Stuff”. Then, instead of clicking on the pdf version of the product, click on the first link.
Question 2
Average Draft Position. Do you give much value in factoring in ADPs during a draft? Does your web site have (or where can I see?) the most recent ADP list?
peterw wohler (Minneapolis, MN)
If I know that I’m high on a guy, I’ll try to slip him down some. I’ve done that in a number of leagues with Julian Edelman. But in general, I don’t pay too much attention to ADP figures. I don’t trust them. For starters, it’s just a composite of what a bunch of other people are doing. It doesn’t necessarily forecast how the other 11 guys in your league will perform. If I think Edelman might be a top-10 overall player in the a PPR league and the ADP data at MyFantasyLeague.com suggests that he’s only the #65 player, that doesn’t guarantee that I’ll get him if I let him slide to pick 44 or pick 54. I see that Bishop Sankey is the #62 overall player on their current ADP chart. I’ve watched both of the Tennessee games, and my feeling is Shonn Greene will be better. Greene has started both of those games, and he’s been a lot better. Greene isn’t even in their top 200. That tells us there’s a chance we might be able to get Greene in the later rounds, but we don’t really know. If one of the other 11 owners in the league has watched the preseason games and drawn the same conclusions, then Greene will be snatch. When I’m drafting, I will sometimes let guys slide a little. But when it’s my turn to draft and the best-available player is rated way higher than everyone else, that’s almost always the guy I’ll draft.
Question 3
The prospect of drafting Zac Stacy or LeVeon Bell in the second round doesn't thrill me. I can easily see those guys being stuck in time-share situations. I know good running backs are scarce, but the second round seems like too high a price for both those backs. What do you think?
Paul Owers (West Palm Beach, FL)
I think Stacy will be fine. Tre Mason hasn’t done a damn thing yet. He didn’t play until the third quarter against Green Bay, and then he allowed two sacks in that quarter on blown pass protections. Mason isn’t even going to be their backup tailback. It’s Zac Stacy, then you’re down to Benny Cunningham.
Question 4
You have been a valuable talent scout for our organization for many years. We all here at appreciate it. I was crunching some numbers and looking at trends year to year in the auction values and I wanted your comments if you have time. I looked at the same scoring system from a data pull in late August last year (2013) and early August this year (2014). I ignored the names of the players, just listed the auction values side by side and I noticed the following trends. QBs are worth $3-$5 less in 2014 than 2013 at the top ranked guy all the way down to #16. The top 2 RBs are worth $5 more in 2014 than 2013. The rest seems fairly close. The WR are similar price at the top 7 spots but 2014 retain high value until #13. Spots #9 through #14 actually are $3 to $7 higher in 2014 than they were in 2013. The TE position is much higher valued than the past. $21 for #1 this year compared to $13 last year (for Graham each year). And the next ten TEs are worth $2-$4 more in 2014 than 2013. So to summarize, based on these numbers, QBs are worth less across the board, TE worth more across the board, the top couple RBs are much more highly prized, and the WR position seems to be deep with talent (at least to #12 or so) compared to last year. Is this an accurate summation, and if so, any ideas why this is trending this way?
Robert Taylor (Omaha, NE)
Quarterbacks are a little different, I think. They’re deeper. Last year I was a proponent of the idea that while passing production was up, it was really just the top third of quarterbacks that were a lot better. For the other two thirds of teams, the passing production was pretty similar to what we’ve seen in past years. That’s not the case this year. I find myself being more interested to the quarterbacks who are getting selected in the teens. Carson Palmer, I think, looks really good. Jay Cutler is a top-10 quarterbacks that I couldn’t get in my top 10. Ryan Tannehill and Ben Roethlisberger look like good Nos. 2. Watching Matt Cassel last week, I was even wondering if he might be an acceptable backup fantasy quarterback. More depth there. At tight end, on the other hand, there seems to be less depth. We know who the big tight ends are going to be Jimmy Graham is phenomenal, and Julius Thomas and Rob Gronkowski (if healthy) aren’t far behind. Kyle Rudolph looks very good. There will be some decent tight ends selected outside the top 10, but I don’t see any who’ll be hanging with the real difference-makers at the position. Wide receivers seem a little deeper, with that nice dozen at the top of the board.
Question 5
How hard (or beneficial) is it for you to calculate spending in your auction league to determine the percentage of money spent on maybe the 36 (equal to first three rounds) most expensive players? And maybe the percentage spent on minimum (or $3 and less) players as well. I am thinking that something like a 3 season sample (if closely related) should show if I can afford to wait until others "overspend" before I go after a team of say 4th/5th round talent. Thanks!
Kenneth Jones (APO, AE)
If you were to chart it out, using historical data from your league, I think you would fine that the most overpriced players will be the top 10-15 guys. You’re not going to sneak away from your auction with LeSean McCoy or Jamaal Charles at 80 percent of their actual value. The better deals will come in the middle rounds, then in the late rounds (with draft boards varying) you’ll be able to get some players that are maybe worth $4-7 on your board for pennies on the dollar – because others view them differently. But at the same time, you have to be sure to spend your money. You don’t want to get left holding money at the end. And you need to factor in that it’s more valuable to have your salaries in your starting lineup rather than on the bench. I just completed an auction and may have messed it up some. We have 18-man rosters, and I have by far the best bench players. But I didn’t by any of the superstars, and at some point (as things develop) I might have to cut some of those guys. Plus I got caught at the end with $10 extra dollars. It’s a modified PPR format, with .7 of a point for a wide receiver reception and .4 for a running back. Full PPR for tight ends. Start 3 wide receivers. I drafted three bargain quarterbacks (Cutler $5, Wilson $4 and Roethlisberger $4). I had all of those guys worth just a little more (Roethlisberger actually at market). Running backs I’ve got Vereen ($19), Mathews ($15), L.Miller ($13), A.Morris ($21) and S.Greene ($4). Collectively, I think those guys are worth $35 more than I paid, but I’ve got to pick two starters each week. Rudolph and Pitta at tight end for $9 each (I thought they were worth $22 and $20). Cobb ($32), Edelman ($20) and R.White ($23) are the starting receivers, worth $41 more than I paid. Wheaton ($4), J.Hunter ($3) and Cooper ($2) are the reserve receivers, with another $9 of value. It’s a good, balanced team, but in hindsight probably should have busted the bank more for somebody. Before October, I will likely have to cut one of these seemingly valuable guys like Wheaton, Greene or Hunter.
Question 6
Do you think DeSean Jackson has WR2 potential in a 12-team league this year? I see him going really late in mocks and always end up with him. Maybe I'm reaching, but I think he'll be pretty damn good in Washington.
Mike Koffski (CHICAGO, IL)
He’s explosive, but there are lots of other pass catchers there as well. Pierre Garcon and Jordan Reed will catch a lot of balls, and they’ve got reserve receivers who can rotate in and make some plays. Andre Roberts definitely. I’ve got Jackson just outside the top 20 wide receivers on my board. I’m not as high on him as you because I’ve selected seven teams, and he’s not on any of them.
Question 7
With the change in Rules regarding defensive backs prohibiting the making contact with wide receivers, do you feel that some wide receivers will be helped more than others because of their style of play by the rule change? If so, which ones?
ERIC FROMME (East Rockaway, NY)
The preseason has been sickening. Way too many flags. It’s like an NBA game, where guys drive the lane, throw their hands up in the air and head to the free-throw line. The penalties are playing too big of a role in the outcome of drives. I don’t think fans or players will stand for it, so I expect the officials will dial it back once the real games start. Whether this will tend to benefit small, quick receivers or the bigger, more physical ones, I’m not sure.
Question 8
In a league where Def/ST score 3 points for TO and 2 points for sacks along with 6 points for TDs. One owner despises this scoring saying it overweighs defenses which is bad because defenses can score in the 20s and win a game for a team but it's only by dumb luck. I like the fact that a defense is more on par with other positions. I also don't think the owner's point above holds water especially considering that TEs have pretty much the same story, i.e, with a couple of exceptions like Jimmy Graham, TEs have pretty random outbursts in the season that can win a game for a team. Can you share some thoughts on 3 points for TOs and 2 points for sacks? Does it make luck too much of a factor?
MARK BORCHERT (Saint Charles, MO)
If you want to make defenses a relevant position, it makes sense to jack up the scoring. For me, what would be frustrating is that there will be weeks that a defense plays great, holding some opponent to 6-9 points, but doesn’t happen to get any sacks or takeaways. Think Seattle or Carolina. So I have become more of a fan of giving defenses meaningful points for keeping opponents off the scoreboard. Start them with 12 points. If they get a shutout, they keep all 12. Then subtract a point for every 2 NFL points allowed. If a defense allows 6 points, it would receive 9 fantasy points. If a team allows 17 points, it would receiver 3.5 fantasy points.
Question 9
What are your thoughts on taking an elite RB and WR from the same team? I'm drafting 4th in a 12 team league and figure Forte will by my Rd 1 pick. I have a strong feeling Brandon Marshall will be staring me in the face in Rd 2. I like Marshall a lot this year, but should I go with a similar ranked WR instead (depending on who falls to me)?
Jeff Noordhoff (Indialantic, FL)
I wouldn’t worry about it too much. If Marshall is the highest-rated player on the board when it’s your turn to choose, I suggest you pick him. Your scores might tend to be a little more balanced, in that if Forte runs for 240 yards and 4 TDs, Marshall would tend to be a little down that week, and versa vice.
Question 10
Great job, as always, Ian. I have to choose between keeping Cobb or Jeffery, which I think is a coin flip IF everything goes as expected. Reports from camp locally here make it sound like Cobb is looking fairly pedestrian coming off his injury. And we know Rodgers is going to spread it around, so I feel Cobb has limited upside. The Chicago passing game won't be as lucrative but the WR production will go through Marshall and Jeffery. However, nothing is more frustrating than watching Cutler force every red zone ball to Marshall. Jeffery had much better TD production with McCown. After all the pros and cons, who do you think is the safer choice?
L DALE GANDER (Sun Prairie, WI)
I think they’re both fine. They’re in the same tier. My gut tells me that Cobb probably will a little better. I think he’ll definitely catch a few more passes. Jeffery is a better downfield threat. With Cobb, I like that in the St. Louis exhibition game, Rodgers rolled out and had an easy touchdown to Richard Rodgers just inside the end zone. The rookie tight end was wide open. But he instead made a much more difficult throw to Cobb in the back of the end zone for a touchdown. Cobb was standing almost directly behind Richard Rodgers, so Aaron Rodgers really had to ignore the tight end to get it to his receiver (the guys were close enough that Richard Rodgers tried to make a play on the ball and came very close to deflecting it before it got to Cobb.
Question 11
Hi Ian! I am a long time reader/subscriber. I think I still have the 1993 FantasyFootball magazine with Dan Marino on the cover, and I have been a "Fanatics" subscriber for the last 10 years. Anyway, I am considering signing up for the FFPC contest which has a salty $1700 entry fee. I noticed that your custom rankings have an FFPC scoring profile as one of the default profiles. How much data is behind this scoring profile? Does is take into account the TE getting 1.5 PPR into the totals and minimum bid information? Are the number of players going for more than the league minimum based on actual FFPC historical information? I would like to use Fantasy Football Index as my main resource for information for this draft-- I just want to make sure that I am using the best possible data if I pony up the $1700.
Sean Salamander (Martinsville, IN)
With the FFPC rankings, those are how I would rank the players. I have done no studies of past FFPC leagues – who guys picked, and what kind of strategies were the best. With the scoring in that league, there are the two important wrinkles. There’s the 1.5 points for tight end receptions, and there’s the double-flex rule, in which two float starters can be either a RB, WR or TE. So you can start three tight ends, for example. For this reason, in building that draft board, I just ignore the RB-WR-TE position and threat that as if you’re starting seven “field” players. The overall slotting is based off (I think) about the top 120-130 players. That is, any body selected outside the top 125, you assume that you’ll be able to get what you want, based on people’s board being different. The top 125, you get credit for how much better the player is than the group from 125+.
Question 12
We have a auction keeper league where we can keep two players from the previous years draft that you paid less than ten dollars for and less than two dollars for and they remained on your team all season. Alshon Jeffery ($1.00) is one of mine and I have a choice for the other one of either Woodhead ($1.00) or Josh Gordon ($1.00). I am thinking that if Gordon gets only an 8-game suspension that I have no choice but to keep him if for no other reason than to keep one of the other owners from snagging him off the waiver wire. What do you think?
thomas johnson (Anaheim, CA)
Agreed. But watching Gordon last night, I’m convinced he’s not going to be a top-15 receiver even if and when he’s playing this year. The quarterback play isn’t good enough, and they’re not going to pass as often. If Gordon were playing 16 games, no way would he be up in that top tier with guys like Antonio Brown, Randall Cobb and Julio Jones. I would definitely select Roddy White before a 16-game Josh Gordon. That’s a dysfunctional offense.
Question 13
Ian, I've read enough of your stuff and heard enough of your podcasts to know you like to fill the end of your bench with RB's with the potential to be special if the guy ahead of them goes down. In my auction league, I estimate I'll have 3 roster spots where I can do the same. So, who are your top three lottery tickets, those $1 or $2 boom or bust guys who may not do anything but if they get their shot, could be top 15 or top 20 RB's? (Feel free to organize your list either purely by their potential or by the likelihood the guy ahead of them breaks down or both).
L.B. Graham (Maryland Heights, MO)
Knile Davis, James Starks and Carlos Hyde.
Question 14
Hey Ian. My league does a fractional PPR and not a full PPR. (.25ppr for rb and .5ppr for wr/te) That being said, would you lean more towards your yardage+TD rankings or more of the PPR rankings?
Greg Hodur (Philadelphia, PA)
Use custom scoring. You can go in there and change the PPR from 1 point down to a half point. I don’t believe it’s set up yet to handle different PPR for different positions, and that’s something we need to update. If you’re good with excel, you can do that yourself using the stat download file in the “Your Stuff” area.
Question 15
Love your mailbag, keep the great analysis coming! I am in a 12-team, standard scoring auction keeper league. I get two keepers at 150% of last years value. I am keeping Bernard at $20 but am torn on my second keeper. I can keep Russell Wilson for the second year in a row at $3 ($14 of savings based on my cheat sheet) or I can keep Antonio Brown at $21 ($12 savings). When thinking about keepers in an auction league, is it worth foregoing a few more dollars of savings to get an overall higher ranked player? Or do you want the low-cost keepers such as Wilson to free up max $$ in the draft and to keep around for potential future years at a low cost?
Bret K (Cincinnati, OH)
I’d keep Brown. I think it will be easier to find value at quarterback than at wide receiver.
Question 16
You have a TD only league to draft yet? I hope you will share the results with us, when you can. I have a TD only to do myself next week. Thank you for all the help.
CRAIG LEEDY (Sacramento, CA)
The DFL is holding its 29th annual Player Selection Meeting tonight. That’s a TD-only league, and it’s a completely different animal. Almost all of the teams, however, work off draft boards that are heavily influenced by my rankings, so it’s not it’s probably not the best test flight for where I have guys ranked.
Question 17
Picking 9th in a 12-team standard snake. Not sure if that’s good or bad. Knowing the other owners I'm going to have a shot at two out of Graham, Lynch (why people are so down on Lynch is beyond me) or Demaryius. Thomas. If that’s the case do you pass on Graham there or you cant? The come around pick in 2 becomes a challenge because I would not pick for a while. I don’t want to box myself into any specific strategy, but it would be tough sledding to have no RB up until the 33rd pick. Also, I believe if you did pick a TE early you probably have to wait on the QB late. Trying to find the right combo of guys at 9 and 16. Thoughts? Secondly, based on the sheet you have Jordy Nelson above most of that top flight group of WR's. Not disagreeing, but just trying to understand the analysis part of that. That's the kind of gutsy move that we all subscribe with you for.
Bill Petilli (Larchmont, NY)
I ran some numbers on Jimmy Graham a week or so ago, calculating that it made sense to select him late in the first round – statistically, it works better than the other positions. So he’s in the mix. But I think Kyle Rudolph will be really good and one of the great values of your draft a few rounds later. If you select Graham, you take yourself out of the mix to possibly select Rudolph a little later. Picking 9th, if Demaryius Thomas is available, I’d probably run the card to the podium. As for Nelson, I think the Packers will put up huge passing numbers, and he seems to be their top receiver.
Question 18
Hi Ian 16 team league as noted I have the 3 pick and realy like AP . QBs get 6 pts passing TD and all rushing and receiving TDs are worth 6 as well. Quarterbacks get 1 pt for 20 yards passing. Running backs get and 1 pt for every 10 yards rushing/receiving. rb's get .25 per reception, wr's get .5. You can also play 2rb's 2 wr's or go 1rb and 3 wr's. Wo do you like at the 3 pick in this format.
Mike Conway (Nanuet, NY)
With quarterbacks getting 6 points for touchdown passes, tough to pass on one of those few guys who might jack up 40 touchdown passes. On the flip side, there’s nice depth at quarterback, so if you pick up the scarce talent at running back and wide receiver, maybe toss in my boy Kyle Rudolph, you might still get Carson Palmer in a later round and be fine at quarterback. Vikings look credible, so Peterson definitely is in the mix. He seems to have an adequate group around him.
Question 19
I read that Gronk still has a noticeable limp. If he isn't playing does the value of all other Patriots increase with the exception of Brady?
James COSTELLO (Portland, ME)
He’s supposedly going to be ready for their first game. If he misses any time, that would help New England’s other pass catchers. Gronkowski is a monster in the red zone. If he’s out, they’d have to look for other guys more often.
Question 20
In a snake style draft, where do you prefer drafting? In our league (8 teams), we don't draw names for the draft order. We draw names to determine the order for selecting a draft position. Most of the guys in our league seem to shy away from the #1 overall pick when they have the first choice in selecting their draft position.
Roy Sherman (Columbia, TN)
I think I’d like to be early and get one of those franchise running backs – LeSean McCoy or Jamaal Charles. I think you’ll be pleased with what’s there late in the second round, and early in the third will get a better player than what maybe lasts until late in that round.
Question 21
I'm going to buy your update before my draft on Sept. 6 but I wanted to follow up my last question you answered on last weeks mailbag. With the 15th pick in a ppr 16-team league I would like to go WR-WR because I feel that will get me the most points. I can keep Crabtree with my 9th pick and Harvin with my 6th and even though I agree with you that Harvin is not going to be great in a PPR , the 6th pick in a 16-team league draft is wayyyyyy later than I am seeing him go in mock drafts. We can start 3 WR and only one RB so should I even consider not keeping him? The logical move is to take Murray, Ball, Lynch or Bernard and then come back and take Green, Marshall or Nelson (Jones' foot still scares me. )
Vernon Jones (Rockville, MD)
Agree that the math in a 16-team league works differently. Harvin is the #63 player on my PPR board. That would make him a sixth-round pick in a 12-team league, but he would be an early fifth-round pick choice when you go to 16 games.