Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: A look at starters who also return kickers. Top rookies in a keeper draft. Projected team passing stats. And is it time for San Francisco fans to start worrying?
Question 1
Love your stuff - keep it up. My question is about the Thursday sheets that you provide. What, precisely, is up to date as of that day, and what is the same as the previous Monday? I noticed the last excel stat projection on 8/14 said "updated as of 8/14". But the previous week (8/7), was not as of that day. Just lookin to use the latest on my draft next Thursday!
DENNIS WALSH (Papillion, NE)
All of the rankings and stat projections get updated twice per week. (Actually, they get updated constantly, but they get published twice per week). Over the weekend, it’s read-and-react, tweaking guys based on news and what I’m seeing in the preseason games. Then, late on Wednesday and early on Thursday, I like to just look at each team and re-check the lay of the land. Make sure everyone’s put together properly. Then I’ll glance at the 1-100 lists at each position and tweak the rankings to make a few guys move up or down as I see fit. The draft board on Monday morning should be pretty final. Then I’ll play with it and make a few more changes that will come out on Thursday afternoon.
Question 2
Thanks for another great publication! Through two preseason games, the 49ers have been outscored 57-3 - are you worried?
Rob Dammers (Ringwood, NJ)
I wouldn’t worry about those games too much. They’re just messing around. They’ll get things turned around. But there are some holes to fill on that roster. Navorro Bowman is coming off the knee injury. Aldon Smith will be suspended. Alex Boone is holding out. I could see them slipping. As for preseason results, there’s only a loose correlation between it and real-game results. Since the move to the eight-division format, 26 teams have gone winless in the preseason. Seven of those teams have finished with double-digit wins in the real games. Seven have gone .500. And 12 have finished with losing records. The 49ers, of course, are only half way to being 0-4.
WINLESS IN THE PRESEASON | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | W | L | T |
2002 | Buffalo | 8 | 8 | 0 |
2002 | St. Louis | 7 | 9 | 0 |
2003 | Atlanta | 5 | 11 | 0 |
2003 | Houston | 5 | 11 | 0 |
2004 | San Francisco | 2 | 14 | 0 |
2005 | Indianapolis | 14 | 2 | 0 |
2005 | Kansas City | 10 | 6 | 0 |
2006 | Pittsburgh | 8 | 8 | 0 |
2006 | Washington | 5 | 11 | 0 |
2007 | Arizona | 8 | 8 | 0 |
2007 | Kansas City | 4 | 12 | 0 |
2008 | New England | 11 | 5 | 0 |
2008 | Cleveland | 4 | 12 | 0 |
2009 | Arizona | 10 | 6 | 0 |
2009 | Carolina | 8 | 8 | 0 |
2009 | Kansas City | 4 | 12 | 0 |
2010 | Chicago | 11 | 5 | 0 |
2010 | Indianapolis | 10 | 6 | 0 |
2011 | Atlanta | 10 | 6 | 0 |
2011 | Oakland | 8 | 8 | 0 |
2011 | Kansas City | 7 | 9 | 0 |
2012 | NY Jets | 8 | 8 | 0 |
2012 | Miami | 7 | 9 | 0 |
2012 | Buffalo | 6 | 10 | 0 |
2013 | Pittsburgh | 8 | 8 | 0 |
2013 | Atlanta | 4 | 12 | 0 |
Question 3
Ian, in our (12-team, non-ppr, 3-year contracts) keeper league, we have a 2-round rookie draft before the main auction, in which I have the 1st pick (#1 & #13.) Keeping in mind that I only get to keep these guys for 3 years, who would be your #1, and, assuming the picks go the way you envision, who would be a good grab at #13?
Scott Anderson (Lakewood, CO)
So I need to come up with 13 players for three years? No quarterbacks. There are about five tight ends that could be discussed, but none I would really want to take at 13. I think it’s backs and receivers. Brandin Cooks, Carlos Hyde, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Bishop Sankey, Kelvin Benjamin, Jordan Matthews, Devonta Freeman, Terrance West, Andre Williams, John Brown, Cody Latimer, Davante Adams. Something like that.
Question 4
Struggling with a decision on DeMarco Murray vs Montee Ball in a PPR league. Murray is usually ranked lower, presumably because of durability concerns. Outside of that, he's a proven commodity locked in to the every-down-back role. Ball is not a lock to be in that sort of role, is he? Nor has he proven that he can handle it over 16 games. I don't want to get burned by another unproven Denver running back, similar situation, similar last name: Tatum Bell. P.S. Won that league last year, you had Charles ranked #1, I got him at #7!
Gregory Wells (Lake Forest Park, WA)
Nice to hear from somebody in the neighborhood. Ball hasn’t proven that he can play 16 games, but Murray has proven he can’t. He gets hurt every year. Every year at Dallas, and every year at Oklahoma. Setting aside the injuries, I still think it’s Ball. The team is a lot better. With Dallas, you could be talking about a 5-11 type team that’s firing coaches during the season.
Question 5
One of my leagues awards points for return yards (equal to rush/rec yards). Moving the kickoffs up seriously reduced the value of the Josh Cribbs type specialist, but starting WRs who also return get a nice bump. Besides the Percy and Cordarrelle, any decent WRs who also return kicks and/or punts? I don't have to settle for Tavon Austin, do I? Any RBs of note? Thanks.
Craig Rinne (Delray Beach, FL)
As of right now, I expect Harvin and Patterson will return kickoffs. They’re both listed as first-string kickoff guys on the depth charts supplied by their teams, and they’re both really good at it. There’s always a risk with having starting receivers returning kicks. That’s why you won’t see Randall Cobb or Antonio Brown doing it this year. They’re too valuable. And by the same argument, the Seahawks and Vikings could pull Harvin and Patterson. But it looks like they’ll do it. For punts, I see two starting receivers who’ll also return punts: Austin and Brandin Cooks. Jeremy Kerley should handle them at least for a while for the Jets. In regards to Harvin and Patterson, I would select Patterson a lot earlier. Minnesota’s defense is a lot worse, so he’ll get to handle a lot more of them.
Question 6
10 TD only league, 4 points for TD passing - Pick #2. Going by FFI cheat sheet summer updates, I would take Manning or Brees with my first round pick. I have never picked a QB in the 1st round in more than 25 years ... do I do it in a 10 team league, or is there justification for waiting to select a QB later?
David Allen (Lincoln, NE)
I play in a TD-only league. My original league, now in its 29th year, is a TD-only format. I have studied quarterbacks, running backs and receivers. It’s my belief that the NFL game has changed, and that the correct move is to select Peyton Manning with that 2nd pick if he’s there. In that kind of format, it’s a huge advantage to have a quarterback who might throw 40-plus touchdowns. That kind of guy can really carry you. And those three guys at the top – Manning, Brees, Rodgers – have that kind of potential. I mean, I don’t think it’s just possible that one of them might throw 40 touchdowns. I would bet that at least one of those guys will chuck 40. Another viable strategy, of course, is to kind of blow off the quarterback position and pick up maybe Carson Palmer and Jay Cutler in the middle/later rounds. With that combo, you might get a respectable 30 TDs. Let’s say you finish 10 TD passes behind the elite guy you could have taken at No. 2. That’s 40 points. So shifting to another position, can you draft or find a running back or wide receiver who’ll come within 6 TDs of LeSean McCoy or Adrian Peterson? I think you can. Stevan Ridley (if he isn’t fumbling) could punch in a bunch of scores for the Patriots. Justin Hunter could catch a bunch of touchdowns for the Titans. Because of injuries, some no-name running backs and wide receivers will step in and star. Particularly at running back. But you won’t have an off-the-bench guy come in and throw 34 touchdowns.
Question 7
The set up for our league this year follows. 1 QB, 1 TE and the next 5 positions can be any combination of TE, RB or R. What would your strategy be for putting together a team with this 10 team basic scoring format?
KENDALL HAYES (Spring Hill, TN)
I would treat them as just two different positions. You’ve got quarterbacks. That’s one position. And you’ve got “field players”, where you lump all the RB, WR and TE together. You just have to keep sort of an eye on things to make sure you pick up a tight end at some point. Once you have your two lists, decide how many at each position will be drafted. Then decide who the best guy is at each of these two positions that you would be able to select in about the 10th round. Those are your two baseline guys. Quarterback “value” is how much better they are than the guy you might get in the 10th round. Same with field players – key is the difference relative to that 10th-round benchmark (production above that level).
Question 8
14 Team PPR league where we start 1 RB, 1 WR, and 3 Flex. I have the number one pick, and I'm tempted to go WR over RB, given that I would fill my flex slots with WRs, and there are ample RBBC to put at RB. Your thoughts? Also, can you put out your annual list of Team QBs?
DANIEL FORD (Rochester, NY)
With three flex players, you can simply forget about RBs and WRs and just call them “players”. Jamaal Charles projects to score a lot more points than Calvin Johnson, so he’s the guy. Not even close. As for team quarterbacks, here’s what I have for team passing production right now (do not include rushing). Fantasy points here built around 1 point for every 20 yards and 4 for each TD pass.
PASSING STATS PROJECTIONS | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TD | Points |
Denver | 5008 | 37.8 | 401.4 |
New Orleans | 4928 | 37.1 | 394.9 |
Green Bay | 4688 | 34.9 | 373.9 |
New England | 4592 | 32.6 | 360.2 |
Detroit | 4656 | 30.2 | 353.8 |
Atlanta | 4512 | 28.6 | 340.2 |
Dallas | 4432 | 29.4 | 339.4 |
Arizona | 4368 | 27.2 | 327.2 |
Chicago | 4160 | 29.8 | 327.0 |
Cincinnati | 4160 | 28.3 | 321.3 |
San Diego | 4160 | 28.0 | 320.0 |
Philadelphia | 4080 | 28.6 | 318.6 |
Indianapolis | 4160 | 26.4 | 313.6 |
Pittsburgh | 4112 | 26.6 | 311.8 |
Washington | 4000 | 24.0 | 296.0 |
Seattle | 3648 | 28.2 | 295.0 |
Minnesota | 3856 | 24.0 | 288.8 |
Baltimore | 3872 | 22.4 | 283.2 |
NY Giants | 3920 | 21.6 | 282.4 |
Miami | 3792 | 22.2 | 278.6 |
San Francisco | 3552 | 23.7 | 272.3 |
Carolina | 3600 | 22.2 | 269.0 |
Tennessee | 3600 | 22.2 | 269.0 |
Kansas City | 3552 | 22.2 | 266.6 |
St. Louis | 3552 | 22.2 | 266.6 |
Jacksonville | 3616 | 20.5 | 262.7 |
Houston | 3472 | 19.2 | 250.4 |
Tampa Bay | 3440 | 18.4 | 245.6 |
Oakland | 3440 | 16.8 | 239.2 |
Buffalo | 3360 | 17.1 | 236.5 |
NY Jets | 3360 | 17.0 | 235.8 |
Cleveland | 3280 | 17.0 | 232.0 |
Question 9
I have a dynasty draft coming soon where I pick very late, On most other dynasty sites, they still seem to be fairly high on Crowell. I see he had 1 carry on Monday for a few yards. Do you think he has any real value? Also, I am looking for a late-round steal – someone who has super upside potential – think Alf Morris - is Blue in Houston or Juwan Thompson this years Alf? How about Cadet in NO or Taliaferro in Bal? Thoughts?
MONTE MCDONALD (Las Vegas, NV)
Crowell isn’t a guy I’m even tracking. When I first saw his name, I did a doubletake. Germane Crowell (the former Detroit receiver) came to mind. Then I remembered that you were talking about Isaiah Crowell, who showed some potential at Georgia and then wound up at Alabama State. I remember seeing his first carry at Washington and thinking that he slammed it into the middle pretty hard. But not a guy that I imagine would be selected in any fantasy league anywhere. How many guys are you drafting? I mean, he’s just trying to make that team. So far in the preseason, he’s carried twice for 3 yards. I have been looking at Alfred Blue in Houston, trying to figure if it’s going to be him of Jonathan Grimes (or somebody else) who winds up as the No. 2 behind Arian Foster. I think Blue looks a little better than Grimes via the eyeball test. Juwan Thompson had the nice game against Seattle a few weeks back, but has physical limitations. Not really an NFL player. If it’s a PPR format, you could look at Travaris Cadet eventually replacing Pierre Thomas and catching a bunch of passes. As I like to point out, Cadet caught an NFL-record 30 passes in the preseason a few years back. (I checked the last eight years or so and nobody else is even close, so I’m going to just say it’s a record). Of the guys you’ve listed, I’ll go with Lorenzo Taliaferro of Baltimore; he’s a fourth-round pick, so presumably has some talent, and may move up at some point. Thus far, the most impressive undrafted rookie (I think) has been Allen Hurns, who’s started both of Jacksonville’s games. In Washington, their fifth-round receiver Ryan Grant looks like a keeper. You see him catching balls and think, “I could see that guy being a starter some day.”
Question 10
I've been a FantasyIndex subscriber for 20+ years now, and your advice has led me to more than my share of league trophies. I've plugged in our custom league scoring for our drauction (4-round, $100 auction, followed by draft) and it spits out Peyton Manning as worthy of an $80 bid (mind you I only have $100 to spread amongst 4 players). No player in the history of our league has ever gone for more than $55, and I don't see that changing this season. I've run the different mock scenarios, and in each case, taking Manning does indeed seem to give me a decided advantage. But I can't just wrap my head around what using all that money on 1 player would leave me with for RB or WR. For example, I'm thinking if I take Manning, I might be able to sneak in Eddie Lacy as well, but #2 and #3 RBs will have to be sleepers, and my WRs will look, at best, something like Floyd, Hilton, Cooks... I'm a WR guy and having a hard time getting excited about that. Please convince me to stop worrying about having a "sexy" roster and just trust your numbers!
Matt Tinker (Orleans, VT)
Those aren’t the numbers I get. I did it a little differently. First, separate out the 48 players you feel should be purchased in the drauction. On my board, I get 7 QB, 22 RB, 4 TE and 15 WR. Then decide how many of those guys you’d be willing to pay more than $1.00 for. I mean, everyone’s board will be different, so even if you were to simply bid $97 on your No. 1 guy, you still might get three other players in your top 40. In my eyes, I’m willing to pay more than $1.00 for only 27 of the 48 players. At quarterback, I’m only willing to pay more than $1.00 for the top three. After that, my hunch is I might get somebody like Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford or Nick Foles for a dollar. So a really high baseline there (bringing down the big number on Manning). At running back, I’m going over $1.00 for only 10 backs; not willing to pay more for guys like Alfred Morris or DeMarco Murray. At tight end, only paying for the big three. And just 11 wide receivers, with Roddy White being the last money guy. When you do it that way, three running backs project to be worth over $75. Six other guys are worth over $55, and then you get down to Manning at $54.51. These numbers are just a starting point, but to me it seems like you should be targeting those high-priced guys. Whatever combination you can land where you get the most value (between your price and these listed values), that’s the way to go. If, for example, you could somehow buy McCoy and Lacy (and two $1.00 players) that would be about $160 worth of talent for your $100, which would be outstanding. If nobody in your league is paying more than $55 for a player, my guess is their haggling too much over the less-important mid-range guys.
TINKER'S DRAUCTION VALUES | ||
---|---|---|
Pos | Player | Value |
RB | LeSean McCoy | $94.72 |
RB | Jamaal Charles | $82.76 |
RB | Adrian Peterson | $77.03 |
TE | Jimmy Graham | $68.84 |
WR | Calvin Johnson | $68.65 |
RB | Matt Forte | $65.95 |
RB | Eddie Lacy | $64.59 |
WR | Demaryius Thomas | $60.97 |
RB | Marshawn Lynch | $55.20 |
QB | Peyton Manning | $54.51 |
WR | Dez Bryant | $47.44 |
QB | Drew Brees | $46.36 |
QB | Aaron Rodgers | $44.93 |
WR | A.J. Green | $43.77 |
WR | Jordy Nelson | $43.33 |
RB | Giovani Bernard | $42.87 |
RB | Montee Ball | $33.45 |
WR | Brandon Marshall | $29.93 |
WR | Randall Cobb | $27.58 |
WR | Julio Jones | $22.63 |
WR | Antonio Brown | $21.16 |
WR | Alshon Jeffery | $19.45 |
RB | Zac Stacy | $17.35 |
TE | Julius Thomas | $13.77 |
WR | Roddy White | $13.63 |
TE | Rob Gronkowski | $11.07 |
RB | Doug Martin | $7.05 |
Question 11
I'm the 9th pick in a 12 team PPR league where passing TD's are worth 6 points. How do your PPR rankings change with passing TD's worth 6 instead of 4?
Katie Rhodes ()
Increasing the value of TD passes by 50 percent increases the value of quarterbacks, but it’s the catches that are still the driver in that format. On my board, the first quarterback doesn’t show up until 18th overall. I’ve got Manning, Brees and Rodgers going in the second half of the second round. The first 17 choices should be (in my opinion) six running backs, 10 wide receivers and Jimmy Graham. To see exact rankings, using the custom rankings feature in the “Your Stuff” area of the website.
Question 12
I'm in an auction league that gives a point for 10 receiving yards and 15 rushing yards. It also gives a point per 40 return yards. Generally speaking, how much does the return yardage boost the value of Cordarrelle Patterson, and how certain can I be that Patterson will be the Vikings' kickoff returner all year?
Jason Embry (Cedar Park, TX)
Teams don’t generally use starting wide receivers for kickoff returns. Last year he wasn’t a starter – he was a No. 3 guy. So I think it’s fair to speculate that they could pull him from returns at some point. Same deal with Percy Harvin. They’re both damn good at kickoff returns, though, so what are you to do. Especially with Harvin, I could see the Seahawks saving him for only the big games (for kickoff returns). Patterson is younger and doesn’t have the history of injuries, so he’s more likely to just handle them all year. He had almost 1,400 yards on returns last year, and the Vikings are playing outdoors, which might make a few more kickoffs returnable. If I were in your league, I’d project him for 800-1000 yards on kickoff returns. At a point per 40, that’s an extra 20-25 points (not counting the 6 or 12 he might get for scoring a touchdown or two).
Question 13
I struggle with the custom values every year. The league is 12 teams..stnd snake. qb/rb/rb/wr/wr/flex/te/d/k and 7 reserves. For the amount of rb's and wr's that would be picked I went with a total of 60 each with 48 going for more than the minimum bid. I assumed that beside the starters at each position (2) that there would be 3 reserves of each, which would make a total of 5/team = 60. Is this an inaccurate number or should this be scaled back?
Bill Petilli (Larchmont, NY)
You have last year’s rosters available, right? If waiver moves are allowed, I would assume most teams would carry just one kicker and one defense. Maybe 24 QBs (16 more than the min), 12 kickers (4), 12 defenses (3), 20 tight ends (11), 58 running backs (40) and 66 wide receivers (43).
Question 14
I have a question regarding Frank Gore. I like the 49ers O line, and the young guys drafted behind him have by all reports really motivated him. I was thinking of getting one more year out of the old bell cow. but I was looking at his stats from last year and 5 of his 9 TDs came from the 1 yard line. since he is virtually non existent in the passing game and I’m in a PPR league, I just thought that it would be nearly imposible to get set up that way again this year. some of those drives just wont wind up on the one yard line right? even if he holds his yards per carry average steady with last year, im just scared that he wont get those short yardage opportunities again. thoughts?
tavis medrano (San Gabriel, CA)
PPR league. He doesn’t catch passes – just 16 receptions all of last year. So why are we having this discussion? Nice enough power runner, but just doesn’t fit the format and invariably will get selected at least a couple of rounds too early by some Niner fan or somebody who just doesn’t understand the nature of the scoring system.
Question 15
I've done nothing but 1 QB starter leagues since I began playing many years ago. I just agreed to join a 2 QB starter league (otherwise very Standard). How does that change my draft strategy, and what should I do differently when customizing my Scoring Profile/ Rankings Generator / Auction Values? With 1 QB, I go with 22 QBs drafted with 16 above the minimum in a 10 team league.
DOOGIE D (Palm Beach Gardens, FL)
It makes quarterbacks a lot more valuable. I suggest you go with 30 now being selected, and 24 being worth more than the $1.00 minimum. Numerically, it looks like quarterbacks are now worth 40 more relative points. The baseline has shifted.