Ian Allan answers your fantasy football question. In this edition: is it Miller Time in Miami? Or have the Dolphins landed a Moreno who'll make a Marino-type impact for them? Has Pittsburgh's backfield gone up in smoke? And will the penalty madness extend into the regular season? That and much, much more in what's unofficially the longest mailbag of the season.
Question 1
I ended up taking Lamar Miller as my 3rd RB in a TD-heavy league behind Arian Foster and Frank Gore. I also have Brees at QB, Brandon Marshall, Cordarrelle Patterson, Eric Decker, Marques Colston at WR (start2) and then Zach Ertz at TE (must start 1, no flex position). Should I look to make a trade to updrage my 3rd RB (Miller in this case) or do you think he will be fine as a fill in for bye weeks/possible injuries? After seeing Moreno in last week's game, I've lost confidence in his hold on the top RB position in Miami. Also, who would get goal-line carries in that offense?
Benjamin MacLeod (Manchester, NH)
Moreno is proving to be kind of the Lazarus Back. Last year nobody was even thinking about him as Ronnie Hillman and Montee Ball seemingly battled for the tailback job in Denver. Moreno stepped in and swiped it at the end. This time, Moreno showed up out of shape in the spring and underwent knee surgery, while Lamar Miller got all the reps with the first-team offense and supposedly was fitting into the new offense great and all that. But Moreno finally got on the field Saturday, and he looked a lot better than Miller. I think it will be a one-two punch, and Moreno will definitely be the much larger part of the tandem.
Question 2
You've got to tell us what is likely (or best guess) to happen to the Doobie Brothers on Pittsburgh.
MATT LACAPRA (Cold Spg Hbr, NY)
Dwayne Bowe was involved in a similar incident and there was no punishment until almost a year later. It could be the same with Bell and Blount. The case first must move through the legal system. At the end of that process, which should come after the end of the season, the NFL will move in with its sanctions. The greater danger, I think, is that the Steelers will take action against them, as they did a few years back with Santonio Holmes. On our board, I’ve reduced both Bell and Blount by one game.
Question 3
In watching all the preseason games, the number of penalties downfield on defensive backs trying to defend wide receivers is amazing. If this continues into the regular season, do you think the new illegal contact rules will result in a lot more short touchdowns as penalties in the end zone or close to the goal line will give teams more 1-, 2-, and 3-yard shots? And who will be the primary beneficiaries (e.g. teams that throw downfield a lot and also have a stud goal-line back)?
Geoff Maleman (Los Angeles, CA)
I expect it will settle down. The league is trying to send a message – trying to reduce contact by defensive backs. But it’s really hard to stop receivers without some contact and hand fighting (especially when the pass catcher is often the guy who initiates the contact). I don’t think teams and fans will settle for 20 penalties per game. Everyone will get pissed and stop watching. So I expect teams will adjust some and the referees will slide back towards calling games like they have in recent years, and we’ll all kind of forget about it in October. I find it kind of amusing, by the way, that it was the Seahawks who got this whole thing rolling. Some teams didn’t like the amount of contact their defensive backs got away with downfield last year. Yet in the preseason, I heard during a broadcast that Seattle hasn’t been whistled yet for one of the 5-yards-downfield penalties.
Question 4
I have been doing fantasy football for a while now and have always been in a league that is standard scoring non-ppr. This year I am joining a league that is still 12-team non-ppr but is rewarding 6 points for passing TD (which I think is ridiculous). I have always been against picking a QB early, especially not in the first round. With the QB dominance last year and all the rules changes on defense am I crazy for thinking about taking a top QB with the 3rd pick?
Anthony Giomundo (Tonawanda, NY)
The way the league is structure nowadays, it seems like a couple of quarterbacks throw over 40 touchdowns every year. And those aren’t sleeper guys. They’re the franchise-type ballers like Manning and Brees. And if you’re sure that any one of those guys are going to throw 42, then the logical conclusion after doing the math is to ask, “where do I sign up?”. On my board, I believe Manning, Brees and Rodgers all should be selected in the top 10 overall. But it’s a delicate dance trying to put one in the top 3 (which I do not). Where is Tom Brady, for example, being selected? I think he’s the No. 18 player overall. Can you get him in the fourth round? What about Russell Wilson and Nick Foles? And my favorite, most-undervalued quarterback of all is Carson Palmer, who’d I’d very much like to couple with one of those Wilson-Foles-Ryan type guys. Palmer played like a big pile of dog doo on Sunday night, but I think he’s going to be good in the real games. So when you start looking at where those guys will be selected, I’m not thinking about a quarterback with a top 3 pick overall. It’s not a crazy dumb thing to do – if Manning throws 40 touchdowns, you’ll be fine – but I’d go with the running back there.
Question 5
New subscriber here, love the product. I wanted to get your thoughts on one of my drafts. 12-team standard scoring where you start a QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, D/ST and Kicker. I had 12th pick overall and we did the 3RR for the first time. In order: D. Thomas, D. Bryant, R. Cobb, A. Ellington, R. Rice, S. Vereen, S. Ridley, M. Ryan, J. Hunter, P. Thomas, H. Miller, L. Green, S. Gostkowski and Cleveland D/ST. I had to choose between Cobb and Morris in the 3rd round (I had 1st pick of 3rd round with 3RR draft) and went Cobb. Ended up working out perfectly with Ellington falling all the way to the end of the 4th round, I was pretty excited about that pick and Demaryius falling to pick 12. I'm finding Matty Ice and Ray Rice all over my teams because they are falling so far. People seem to forget that Ryan played without Julio Jones and had a one legged Roddy White most of last season.
Kyle Wells (Arlington, WA)
A lot of guys are scared of not selecting a running back in the first two rounds. Here’s a guy who didn’t select his first running back until 48th overall. He’s got Ellington, Rice, Vereen, Ridley and Pierre Thomas at running back (plus the potential to make waiver adjustments during the season). I think he’ll be fine there, and he’s got that tough trifecta of wide receivers crushing teams at those positions.
Question 6
The Falcons play at home 3 times in the first 11 weeks. Should I (or you) be moving their players down on my draft board?
Jose Montana (ROSEMEAD, CA)
It’s not as if they’re playing 8 of their first 11 on the road. There’s a bye in there. There’s also a neutral-field game in London. But I agree with your overall point: the Falcons have a road-heavy schedule, making it essentially a must-win game when they try to hold serve against the Saints in Week 1. Makes sense to drop them just a little on fantasy boards.
Question 7
12-team PPR that allows rookie keepers from the previous season to be redrafted in the same round. Eddie Lacy, Giovani Bernard, Montee Ball, and LeVeon Bell are all off the board. I draft 10th and have Bell as my 6th round keeper. I've been debating what to do with my 1st and 2nd picks. With the RB position depleted, should I try to grab a top 10 guy with one of those early picks in addition to a top WR...or should I grab two stud WRs and look to find RB value at picks 3, 4, or 5 to go with Bell? It might also be worth noting that the owners having picks 11 and 12 in our draft have Lacy and Bernard as their respective keepers (both 5th round). Thanks.
Chris George (McDonald, PA)
I want ballers. I am not interested in selecting lesser guys I don’t really want just because they happen to play the running back position. If you select two crappy running backs with your first two picks, I can almost guarantee you will misfire on at least one of those choices. The smarter route, no doubt about it, is to invest in a pair of lead-pipe lock franchise receivers with those choices. Building blocks. Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Antonio Brown, Julio Jones. Nobody is going to regret picking any of those guys in late September.
Question 8
Per our league rules, we can replace any drafted players that get hurt/cut with any available players not drafted. I have Welker and obviously am concerned with his health, that being said, I can pick up E. Sanders and drop Welker (even though I am a little reluctant to do so). Good idea?
Tod Denison (Bakersfield, CA)
I think so. If I were walking into a draft today, I would select Sanders a lot earlier than Welker.
Question 9
I'm in a new redraft 12 team ppr with standard yardage bonuses and 6 points for all td's. The starting lineup is QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, Flex (wr/te), Flex (wr/rb), Flex (wr/rb/te), K, D, and 7 bench spots. I feel like the best approach to this draft might be a modified zero RB strategy. Since I can start 5 WR each week, I'm tempted to draft 5 WR's in the first 5 or 6 rounds, then go for 4-5 ugly RB's, hoping a couple of them end up being startable. The problem is that there's nowhere to do a mock draft for a league like this, so I have no idea how it will actually work out. Please share your thoughts on how to draft for this league. I feel that a league like this can be won in rounds 14-18 by somebody who's prepared to draft that deep.
Robert Grazioso (East Weymouth, MA)
In that kind of format, you have enough flexibility that you can just disregard positions. You’re starting one quarterback, one kicker, one defense and eight “players”. Just lump the running backs, tight ends and wide receiver into one position and go by expected production. There’s a tendency by many to considering running back the most important, but I think you’ll fair better if you’re open to the idea that those two running backs might end up being the least important of your eight field position starters. Just by how many points the guys are going to score and you’re team will wind up being better.
Question 10
I have manually entered in my league’s scoring system so I use the customized feature on the site. The question I have is related to the drafting. Should we be using the overall player rankings as the guide or does that serve as a different purpose. Reason why I ask I see you now have Peyton and Demaryius Thomas in top 4 which is different than people advocating top 4 running backs but I wanted to make sure I was using and reading the stuff properly.
Lance Reiss (Tarzana, CA)
Here’s how the custom scoring feature works in a nutshell – how it generates an overall player list. You separate out the players who’ll be selected in the first 10 rounds. (After that, we don’t care so much about what’s left). In a 12-team league, maybe 16 quarterbacks, 40 running backs, 45 wide receivers, 14 tight ends and a few kickers and defenses. About 110-125 overall players. Then, using our projected stats, it calculates everyone’s value relative to the best player at their position who won’t be selected in the first 10 rounds. (If you want to expand it to 12, 13 rounds or more, you go in and expand the number of players in the sample.) So that’s an accurate and meaning overall list. The computer is logically arguing that you should consider Manning and Thomas in the top 4 overall for your system. You can then take that info and balance it with your own horse sense to plot out your draft strategy.
Question 11
Long-time follower. I'm assisting my father in his office league where he was dead money last year, and they've invited him back. They have several strange scoring rules, but one in particular I'd like your input on. Two points per reception, across the board. How much would that inflate WRs values in your opinion? Who would your top 15 pass catchers be in number of receptions by season's end?
Jeff Carter (Franklin, TN)
You can plug in the exact scoring system into the custom scoring area and it will print an exact draft list for that system. I see the leaders in receptions being Edelman, A.Brown, Marshall, Cobb, Demaryius Thomas, A.J. Green, Roddy White, Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, Larry Fitzgerald, Jimmy Graham, Jordy Nelson, Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson and Alshon Jeffery.
Question 12
Need your expertise. I have the 3rd overall pick in 12-team PPR keeper league. Do I keep Brady and give up a 6th round pick or Stacy and give up 10th round?
DJ Lapic ()
Stacy is the much better value. You might be able to draft Brady in the sixth round. There’s no way, however, that you’d ever get Stacy in the 10th. He very likely will be a top-10 running back, and the quarterback injury could help him. When Bradford got hurt last year, the Rams reworked their offense and started relying on the run a lot more.
Question 13
I am in a 10-team PPR league that starts 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE. Because of the extra starting WE (and no third RB option), the elite WRs go off the board quickly. As a result, some of the RBs that normally go in the early 2nd round might slide to the late 2nd/early 3rd round. I have the #1 pick and with the new defensive rules, I am actually thinking about taking Calvin Johnson. Am I nuts?
Jeff Schwarze (Carol Stream, IL)
I can’t call it nuts because I think I had Megatron as the No. 1 overall player a few weeks back. Makes some sense in that format. But I see two fundamental flaws. There is still more scarcity at running back, so it would be nice to nail down that spot first, then select wide receivers with your next two weeks. And the other issue that bugs me is you’re not sure you’re even getting the best wide receiver. What about Demaryius Thomas and A.J. Green? Those guys are pretty good.
Question 14
Can you think of any special considerations for big leagues? I'm in one that has 18 teams! Do QBs get a boost because not every team will have a starter on their bench? Thanks for all the great work.
Tatum Bell's Ghost (Dewitt, MI)
It definitely would be nice to have two functional quarterbacks. About 22 players in, that position really starts to dry up. So only a few teams will have a pair of viable quarterbacks. But the talent also will be drying up pretty quickly at the other positions as well. You could be one of the last teams to select a quarterback and still potentially land Tony Romo, Carson Palmer or Jay Cutler. Compare that to what the last guys to select running backs and tight ends are left with.
Question 15
Hey Ian...Great publication as I've used it for years. Here's my question: In a standard 10-team Keeper League, I have the option to keep two players which would coincide with my first two picks. I have Eddie Lacy so no brainer there, but I also have Alshon Jeffery. Is he worthy of second round? I'm thinking of just keeping Lacy and seeing what’s available as there will probably be better talent to grab.
John Mulyk (Romeoville, IL)
Jeffery’s pretty good, but in a 10-team league I think he’ll be picked in the late second or early third round. The correct move, I think, is to leave him unprotected. You’re more likely to land someone slightly better than to have to settle for someone slightly worse.
Question 16
Sunday will be our 24th draft of THE LEAGUE, a TD-only league. Enjoyed your magazine since 1993. Just for fun at my other draft this past weekend, I started to get a side game going. When everyone named their pick, you tried to be the first to yell out that player’s college. It didn't last long, but others might enjoy trying it. Especially that one guy in each league who knows the obscure ones. Take care.
Mike Craig (Kokomo, IN)
Skimming down the draft list, I think the first names that will throw guys will be Julius Thomas (Portland State) and Vincent Jackson (Northern Colorado).
Question 17
Ian, Sunday will be our 24th draft of THE LEAGUE, a TD only league. Enjoyed your magazine since 1993. Just for fun at my other draft this past weekend, I started to get a side game going. When everyone named their pick, you tried to be the first to yell out that players college. It didn't last long, but others might enjoy trying it. Especially that one guy in each league who always knows the obscure ones. Take care.
Mike Craig (Kokomo, IN)
Skimming down the draft list, I think the first names that will throw guys will be Julius Thomas (Portland State) and Vincent Jackson (Northern Colorado).
Question 18
I can't find the starting line ups for week 3 preseason games. Last year I could find them on NFL.com. Not now. Important info I need. Do you have a site to get them? Keep up the great work.
CRAIG LEEDY (Sacramento, CA)
They’re still at NFL.com. Click on the “gamebook” to download a pdf file. They’re in there.
Question 19
Playing in a 10-team league this year that features 2 QB 3 RB 3 WR 2 TE 1 RB/WR 2 K and 2 DEF. What do you think is the best strategy for drafting in this league? We also have 9 bench spots. Thanks!
Will Carpenter (Rockingham, NC)
Use the custom scoring feature. You’ll find it under “Your Stuff”. In there, click on the “I use an auction or salary cap” feature. You need to isolate the top 120 or so players. (After the 12th round, you don’t care so much about those guys). In that top 120, let’s put 24 quarterbacks, with 19 of them being important (the question on the site, I think, is “how many are worth more than $1). At running back, let’s put 48, with 38 of them being viable. At wide receiver, please including 53, with 42 of them triggering interest. Maybe 18 tight ends, with 12 good ones. Maybe 2-3 defenses and 2-3 kickers get into that group. That will give you a good overall list of about the top 120 players. That should guide you through about the first 15 rounds. Then you fill it out with kickers, defenses and extra backups from there.
Question 20
I'm joining a 12-team PPR league where teams may elect to keep 1 player from previous year's roster at last year's draft round minus three rounds (4th rounder becomes 1st rounder). I inherited a pretty rancid team and my only real options as keepers are Vereen kept @ Rd 3, Lafell @ 9, Heath Miller @ 13. Vereen will probably be a 3rd rounder if he were not kept, Lafell may not be drafted at all, and I could potentially get Miller anywhere from the 13th thru the 16th rounds. None of them jump out at me as a clear keeper in those rounds - although it would be nice to have Vereen, I just don't think I need to limit my options in round 3. Is Miller worth keeping in round 13? Frankly, I think I can get equal or better in that or later rounds.
Eric Goetz (Seattle, WA)
If it’s a PPR format, I’d probably keep Vereen. I’d be inclined to keep Miller. I think there’s a good chance he’ll be a top-10 tight end, and I’d be happy to select him in the 13th round. Not saying you might not be able to get him in the 14th or 15th, but my guess is he might be the highest-ranked player on your board in the 12th or 13th round, and you’d just end up drafting him anyway. That’s late enough that he could potentially be a backup, leaving you free to select Kyle Rudolph or Julius Thomas earlier if you like where you’d be picking them. No interest in protecting LaFell.
Question 21
Keeper league question: I can keep two players and give up the draft pick where there were selected last year, and I've narrowed it down to three. They are Lacy (3rd round), Bernard (6th) and Jeffrey (15). I'm leaning towards Bernard and Jeffrey as the best value choices. However, McCoy, Charles, Peterson and Forte will most likely be protected, and probably Lynch. I have the second pick, so there is a chance Lacy will be available if I throw him back. What do you think?
TOM HICKS (Durham, NC)
Sounds good. Would be nice to draft Lacy, but for keeping purposes, Bernard and Jeffery make more sense.
Question 22
Thanks for a great product. You helped me win another league championship last year. Question for a 10 team standard scoring league (4pts for QB TDs). $200 auction and I can keep Peyton Manning for $39 or Julius Thomas for $2. I feel like Thomas is the better value but feel like I can't pass on Manning. Brees and Rodgers will be in the auction (can only keep a player 1 season) but will likely go well above $39 based on knuckleheads in my draft. Thoughts?
Jim Karlis (Arlington Hts, IL)
Use the custom-scoring feature to run the auction prices for your league. (I’ve got too many letters this week to be able to do it myself.) Then you look at what Manning and Thomas are “worth” according to our player values. Then you compare those numbers to those keeper figures. I think they’ll both be worth more. Manning is a top-10 player on our board, so he should be worth a good deal more than $39, which is less than 20 percent of the cap. Thomas is about the 40th player on our board, but he’ll definitely be worth a lot more than $2. My guess is that Thomas will be the guy you keep.
Question 23
Hello and thanks for your spot on expertise each year. I'm in a pickle I haven't been in before and thought you could give me perspective. For the first time in my league (due to schedule conflicts) we are holding our draft before your 3rd preseason game analysis comes out. Any tips for how to use the August 18th cheat sheet to better my chances with my draft since I cannot watch and analyze all the preseason games. My thought is that with your Aug. 18th cheat sheet, I'll still have a leg up on my opponents since they will be in the same pickle. Thanks
EARL WEINMANN (Northfield, MN)
Sorry, I’m just seeing this now. Hope you assembled a decent-enough collection of guys. Thanks for the kind words, and best of luck to you this season.