Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this installment: special New England edition. How much do the Patriots lose without Logan Mankins? Where should fantasy leaguers be targeting Tom Brady? And why is Fantasy Index so much higher than everyone else on Julian Edelman?
Question 1
What is your take on the Mankins trade by the Pats and how that might effect Brady & Edelman. This combined with Gronk being a bit iffy have tempered my enthusiasm for those two. Do they by chance have a very capable replacement?
JOHN HARBAUGH (Cross Jnct, VA)
I wouldn’t worry too much about the Patriots. They’ve got some other guys – Dan Connolly, Josh Kline – and they’ve replaced players before. Deion Branch, Randy Moss, Asante Samuel. Bill Belichick knows what he’s doing. He wouldn’t have traded Mankins if he didn’t think they could get by without him. Mankins missed six games in 2012, and they scored 52, 29, 45, 59, 49 and 23 points in those games. That’s 43 points per game. They averaged 30 points in their other 10 games that year. When Mankins missed the half of the 2010 season, the Patriots scored 37.4 points with him and 27.4 points without him. So a 10-point difference there, but note that Mankins was down for the first half of that season. The Patriots typically get better as the season progresses. Why, I’m not sure. Their coaches apparently do a better job of developing their young guys into contributors. Maybe they do more with the film they get of the other games. But four years in a row, New England has averaged at least 4 more points in the second half of the season.
| LATE-SEASON PATRIOTS | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | G 1-8 | G 9-16 |
| 2010 | 27.4 | 37.4 |
| 2011 | 27.8 | 36.4 |
| 2012 | 32.8 | 36.9 |
| 2014 | 22.4 | 33.1 |
Question 2
Out of all the different sites that I’ve checked, you are the only one that has Edelman that high. On other sites, he’s between 46 and 53. Why do you have him this high?
daniel olsen (Jacksonville, FL)
I like the rapport between Edelman and Brady. It’s similar to what Brady had for years with Wes Welker. Now Edelman is in that role. The Patriots signed Danny Amendola last year with the idea that he’d be Welker, but that didn’t work. They finally elevated Edelman ahead of Amendola for that Sunday night game against the Broncos. From that point going forward, Edelman averaged 8.6 catches per game. He’s for real. That was not a case of a journeymen getting on a hot streak. Edelman caught 70 percent of the passes thrown his way, the highest catch rate of all 45 players who had at least 100 passes thrown his way. He’s going to be the same guy this year. In the first half of the exhibition game against Carolina, Edelman caught all 8 passes thrown his way. I’m not sure why so many other analysts don’t think he’s any good. I expect they’ll be backtracking and adjusting those rankings in the middle of September.
Question 3
I have a couple drafts coming up and need some advice. I want Tom Brady as my QB. I believe he will be a top 3 QB this year. It looks like he is being taken in most drafts I’ve seen in the late rounds (8th or later) . In a perfect world I would love to pick him up in the 10th—I’m in a PPR league. How deep in the draft do you think I can pick up Tom Brady?
Dustin Mason (Dallas, TX)
In the Fanex Leagues, which are experts leagues using a PPR format, Brady went in the 7th round in all three of them. (I selected him in two of those). Myfantasyleague.com has an ADP tracker page, and that data shows Brady going 63rd, on average, in drafts the last two weeks. In drafts the last few days, he’s gone 59th. It’s becoming more apparent to more people, I think that his poor start last year was an aberration. The Patriots are one of the top handful of teams. They’ll finish in the top 5 in touchdowns, and Brady probably will be a top 5 quarterback. I don’t think you can risk waiting until the 7th round anymore. If you want Brady, you’ll have to move in the 5th or 6th.
Question 4
Ian, been listening to the podcasts and you sound pretty high on Justin Hunter -- saying he has a skillset like Moss/AJ Green, and that sounds intriguing. Do you have concern about his drop rate? He dropped a lot of passes last year.
Sarah Clark (Sherman Oaks, CA)
I don’t recall seeing him drop any passes last year. He didn’t play a lot, of course; he had only 42 passes thrown his way. But the guys at STATS, Inc. track drops, and by however they measure them, Hunter didn’t drop any passes all year. He’s an intriguing guy, with the raw tools that are similar to the great ones. Not saying that he’s going to play the same kind of role as A.J. Green. Hunter won’t catch 70 passes. But I think he’s the best receiver there, and I think he’s going to blow up for some great games at times. A top-30 receiver, in my opinion.
Question 5
Hey Ian, as usual great work with the magazine and website. Wanted to get your thoughts on an auction I just completed. 12 teams, PPR, start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex, 1 TE. Only 5 bench spots. As I figured it would in a PPR league, the majority of my money went toward pass catchers and I'm obviously happy getting D.Thomas, A.Jeffery, and Julio Jones. I also spent pretty big on Gio Bernard so of course I'm fine with him as my top RB. R.Wilson at QB and Ertz at TE I think were good value as well. My concern is at my 2nd RB spot. I've got Ingram, J.Hill, J.Stewart, and J.Starks. How concerned should I be about that group? I'm leaning toward just keeping what I have for now and hoping my WR production makes up for any disadvantage I have at my RB2 spot. I could shop one of my WR's in hopes of getting an upgrade at RB along with a lesser WR as well. Thoughts?
Michael Kessler (MADISON, WI)
For whatever reason, when most fantasy owners see “2 RB, 2 WR and a flex” they go into the mode of wanting to get three running backs first, then a pair of wide receivers. Statistically it’s usually smarter to not worry so much about positions and just get good players. You’ve got one lead-pipe lock running back (Bernard) and three of the top 10 wide receivers. Then you’ve slid the second running back position down to 5th in priority. But I think you’ll be fine. Ingram looks like he’s going to be very good, and you’ve got time to find another body on the waiver wire. Go back and try to reverse engineer your draft. Try tossing back one of your big three receivers – Thomas-Jones-Jeffery – and seeing what would happen if you instead bought another high-profile running back for that money and set your sights lower at wide receiver. I don’t have the data in front of me, but I’m confident your team would then project to score fewer points.
Question 6
I was curious why you are so big on Julian Edelman. I know he was a PPR beast last year but that was because everyone else on the roster was hurt. What makes you so confident he can not only duplicate but improve on his numbers this year with everyone back in the lineup?
Jason Nielsen (West Palm Beach, FL)
I’ve never said he was going to improve on his numbers. In the final eight games of last year, he averaged 8.6 catches and 91 yards per game, with 5 TDs and a pair of 2-point conversions. That would put him in line for 138 catches, 1,456 yards and 11 touchdowns over a full 16-game season. I have never suggested he’s going to hit those kind of heights. Damn good player, though. Wes Welker with the Patriots five times finished with 111-123 catches, and I think that’s a realistic landing spot for Edelman.
Question 7
I had a standard 12-team snake draft (non-PPR, 4 pt pass TD) last night. Didn't go as planned; as the board shook out, I ended up with Megatron-Nelson-A. Brown as my WR/Flexs, Wilson as QB. Obviously happy with that. However, RB is a concern. Rice, C.Johnson, Tate, Ingram, F.Jackson, Sproles. Should I try to deal one of my WRs for a stud RB, or just endure the preseason smack talk and see how the RB situation plays out? Of course the hosting site has me predicted to go 1-13, to the delight of my co-workers.
Scott Anderson (Lakewood, CO)
I don’t see any reason to be concerned. You’ll make hay with those three receivers, and you’ve got enough depth at running back to hodge-podge together adequate play there. Ingram looks really good. Rice will be back soon. Johnson, Tate and Jackson can start. If McCoy misses any games, Sproles could be a real diamond for you.
Question 8
I find myself with a very difficult decision. I am the returning champ (so I pick last) in a 14-team dynasty league. We protect four veterans and two rookies every year. We start QB RB RB WR WR TE K and 4 IDPs. Score six for rushing TD, four for pass. and rec. TD, double everything over 45 yards. Two points for 100/300 yards. Also the ability to sub a one WR for a one RB in the lineup. Russell Wilson is gonna be my QB. I've got Alfred Morris, whose team looks bad, I've got Arian Foster who scares me and his team is worse. Moreno did well for me last year, but his TDs will be limited so he's probably gone. At WR I've got Antonio Brown and Alshon Jeffery, two young top guys who leave me tempted to buck the norm and keep in lieu of my second RB. Then I got to choose between Foster and Morris with slim pickings for another. Or... are Foster and Morris good enough that I let Jeffery go?
Joseph Verkamp (Cincinnati, OH)
I’d lock down on Wilson, Brown and Jeffery. Those are all young, building-block type guys. Then you’re down to picking between Morris and Foster. Both play on lesser teams. Foster is a better pass catcher. Morris is a lot more durable and a little younger. Foster has battled a hamstring issue all through camp. With Morris, I’ve at least seen him bang out some good runs in the preseason. I’d go Morris.
Question 9
Busy week for us all :) in a 12 team snake and 6 pts for passing td's. Picking 12th. If the first round really goes as it should what should my draft spot be looking at with the back to back picks. Finding it very difficult to come away with the right combo.
Bill Petilli (Larchmont, NY)
I would just go off the overall draft board. I expect you’ll probably get two wide receivers or a receiver and a quarterback with those picks, but you’ll have to wait and see what the other guys give you. It’s not really your choice what you take there. It will be determined by the other 11 owners.
Question 10
I am trying to use the customized scoring system for 2 QB (really a Superflex league) but I don't see anywhere to input the roster quantity/positions. Is there a way to do this so I can see the overall value of each player? Thanks as always!
MONTE MCDONALD (Las Vegas, NV)
It’s in there. Click on the “auction values” section of your scoring profile. Even if you don’t use a salary cap, there are valuable tools in there. Inside that area, it will ask you to define how many quarterbacks will be selected. That’s easy. Probably 30-34 for that kind of setup. Of that group, how many are actually important? How many do you care about? I mean, you could pick up Matt Schaub or Michael Vick in the last round of your draft, so who cares about those guys? For a one-quarterback league, you’d want to go with about 16 quarterbacks (this is a 12-team league, right?). Everyone is interested in getting a viable starter, and there are a few backups that would be really nice to own. Then you’re down to the lesser backup types – Tannehill, Griffin, Flacco, etc. In a 2-QB league, everybody would be interested in owning guys like Tannehill, Griffin and Flacco, so probably more like 24-26 as that baseline number.
Question 11
I'm in a 12-team 0.5 PPR keeper league where we start QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, Flex, TE, D/ST, K. It is a $200 auction league and we can keep up to 3 players for last year's salary +$5. My options are Bernard at $29, J. Bell at $5, Edelman at $5 and Victor Cruz at $15. Bernard at $29 and Edelman at $5 in this format are no brainers to me. I'm leaning towards J. Bell as my 3rd keeper at $5 since the Giants offense looks terrible and I think I'm more likely to land Cruz for $15 than J. Bell for $5. Also, top RBs will be gone and the ones that aren't tend to go for a lot ($50-$65) while more WRs are available and top ones tend to go for $40-$50. Thoughts?
Kyle Wells (Arlington, WA)
Agreed. Looks like you’ve got it figured out.