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Strength of schedule

Titans could be the sleeper team of 2014

For the sleeper team of 2014, how about the Tennessee Titans? They looked pretty good in Week 1, winning comfortably at Kansas City, and they appear to have the easiest schedule the rest of the way.

They’re in the AFC South, recall, so four games against Houston and Jacksonville, and they also get to play everyone in the NFC East, and three of those teams look really soft (Dallas, Washington and New York).

For strength of schedule at this point, it’s best to forget about what happened in 2013. Too many teams have changed. And it’s too early to use 2014 data. So to get an idea of actual strength of schedule, you must assign power numbers to each of the 32 teams, then plug that data back into the schedule.

These, in ballpark terms, would be the win-loss records (I think) if each team played a typical schedule

POWER RANKINGS (not projected win totals)
TeamWLTPct
Seattle1420.875
Denver1330.813
New Orleans1141.719
New England1150.688
San Francisco1051.656
Philadelphia1060.625
Atlanta961.594
Cincinnati961.594
Green Bay961.594
Indianapolis961.594
Carolina970.563
Detroit970.563
San Diego970.563
Arizona871.531
Baltimore871.531
Chicago871.531
Miami871.531
Minnesota880.500
Pittsburgh880.500
Tennessee880.500
NY Jets790.438
Buffalo691.406
Kansas City6100.375
Jacksonville5101.344
NY Giants5101.344
Dallas5110.313
Houston5110.313
Tampa Bay5110.313
Washington5110.313
St. Louis4111.281
Cleveland4120.250
Oakland4120.250

If you take those above win-loss records and then plug them into the remaining 16 weeks of the season, it works out like this.

Titans project to play the easiest schedule in the league, followed by the other three teams in the AFC South and the Eagles. The next hardest schedule, by the way, goes to the Seahawks, who look really strong in the NFC West.

At the other end of the deal, it’s my belief that the Panthers, Jets, Bears and Kansas City will play the hardest schedules.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 2-17)
TeamWLTPct
Tennessee1021371.427
Indianapolis1031361.431
Houston1071330.446
Jacksonville1081320.450
Philadelphia1091301.456
Seattle1131261.473
Baltimore1141260.475
Washington1141251.477
NY Giants1151250.479
Dallas1161240.483
Pittsburgh1161240.483
Cleveland1171221.490
Denver1181220.492
New Orleans1181220.492
Atlanta1181211.494
Miami1191210.496
Cincinnati1191201.498
Buffalo1201191.502
New England1211181.506
San Diego1221180.508
Arizona1251150.521
Tampa Bay1251141.523
San Francisco1261131.527
Minnesota1271130.529
Detroit1281111.535
Oakland1281111.535
St. Louis1281111.535
Green Bay1291110.538
Chicago1301100.542
Kansas City1301091.544
NY Jets1311090.546
Carolina1361040.567

Many of us are in fantasy leagues that are over before the start of Week 17. For those, here’s the same data, only with the final game for each team removed.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 2-16)
TeamWLTPct
Tennessee931310.415
Indianapolis951281.426
Houston1011221.453
Jacksonville1031210.460
Philadelphia1041200.464
NY Giants1051190.469
Pittsburgh1061171.475
Cleveland1091150.487
Seattle1091150.487
Buffalo1091141.489
Atlanta1091141.489
Washington1091141.489
Baltimore1101140.491
Dallas1111130.496
Cincinnati1111121.498
Miami1121120.500
New Orleans1131110.504
Tampa Bay1141100.509
Denver1141100.509
Arizona1141091.511
New England1151090.513
Oakland1151081.516
St. Louis1151081.516
San Diego1161080.518
San Francisco1181060.527
Minnesota1181051.529
Detroit1191050.531
Green Bay1201040.536
Kansas City1211021.542
Chicago1221020.545
NY Jets1221011.547
Carolina126971.565

—Ian Allan

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