For the sleeper team of 2014, how about the Tennessee Titans? They looked pretty good in Week 1, winning comfortably at Kansas City, and they appear to have the easiest schedule the rest of the way.
They’re in the AFC South, recall, so four games against Houston and Jacksonville, and they also get to play everyone in the NFC East, and three of those teams look really soft (Dallas, Washington and New York).
For strength of schedule at this point, it’s best to forget about what happened in 2013. Too many teams have changed. And it’s too early to use 2014 data. So to get an idea of actual strength of schedule, you must assign power numbers to each of the 32 teams, then plug that data back into the schedule.
These, in ballpark terms, would be the win-loss records (I think) if each team played a typical schedule
| POWER RANKINGS (not projected win totals) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | T | Pct |
| Seattle | 14 | 2 | 0 | .875 |
| Denver | 13 | 3 | 0 | .813 |
| New Orleans | 11 | 4 | 1 | .719 |
| New England | 11 | 5 | 0 | .688 |
| San Francisco | 10 | 5 | 1 | .656 |
| Philadelphia | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 |
| Atlanta | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
| Cincinnati | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
| Green Bay | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
| Indianapolis | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
| Carolina | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
| Detroit | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
| San Diego | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
| Arizona | 8 | 7 | 1 | .531 |
| Baltimore | 8 | 7 | 1 | .531 |
| Chicago | 8 | 7 | 1 | .531 |
| Miami | 8 | 7 | 1 | .531 |
| Minnesota | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
| Pittsburgh | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
| Tennessee | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
| NY Jets | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 |
| Buffalo | 6 | 9 | 1 | .406 |
| Kansas City | 6 | 10 | 0 | .375 |
| Jacksonville | 5 | 10 | 1 | .344 |
| NY Giants | 5 | 10 | 1 | .344 |
| Dallas | 5 | 11 | 0 | .313 |
| Houston | 5 | 11 | 0 | .313 |
| Tampa Bay | 5 | 11 | 0 | .313 |
| Washington | 5 | 11 | 0 | .313 |
| St. Louis | 4 | 11 | 1 | .281 |
| Cleveland | 4 | 12 | 0 | .250 |
| Oakland | 4 | 12 | 0 | .250 |
If you take those above win-loss records and then plug them into the remaining 16 weeks of the season, it works out like this.
Titans project to play the easiest schedule in the league, followed by the other three teams in the AFC South and the Eagles. The next hardest schedule, by the way, goes to the Seahawks, who look really strong in the NFC West.
At the other end of the deal, it’s my belief that the Panthers, Jets, Bears and Kansas City will play the hardest schedules.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 2-17) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | T | Pct |
| Tennessee | 102 | 137 | 1 | .427 |
| Indianapolis | 103 | 136 | 1 | .431 |
| Houston | 107 | 133 | 0 | .446 |
| Jacksonville | 108 | 132 | 0 | .450 |
| Philadelphia | 109 | 130 | 1 | .456 |
| Seattle | 113 | 126 | 1 | .473 |
| Baltimore | 114 | 126 | 0 | .475 |
| Washington | 114 | 125 | 1 | .477 |
| NY Giants | 115 | 125 | 0 | .479 |
| Dallas | 116 | 124 | 0 | .483 |
| Pittsburgh | 116 | 124 | 0 | .483 |
| Cleveland | 117 | 122 | 1 | .490 |
| Denver | 118 | 122 | 0 | .492 |
| New Orleans | 118 | 122 | 0 | .492 |
| Atlanta | 118 | 121 | 1 | .494 |
| Miami | 119 | 121 | 0 | .496 |
| Cincinnati | 119 | 120 | 1 | .498 |
| Buffalo | 120 | 119 | 1 | .502 |
| New England | 121 | 118 | 1 | .506 |
| San Diego | 122 | 118 | 0 | .508 |
| Arizona | 125 | 115 | 0 | .521 |
| Tampa Bay | 125 | 114 | 1 | .523 |
| San Francisco | 126 | 113 | 1 | .527 |
| Minnesota | 127 | 113 | 0 | .529 |
| Detroit | 128 | 111 | 1 | .535 |
| Oakland | 128 | 111 | 1 | .535 |
| St. Louis | 128 | 111 | 1 | .535 |
| Green Bay | 129 | 111 | 0 | .538 |
| Chicago | 130 | 110 | 0 | .542 |
| Kansas City | 130 | 109 | 1 | .544 |
| NY Jets | 131 | 109 | 0 | .546 |
| Carolina | 136 | 104 | 0 | .567 |
Many of us are in fantasy leagues that are over before the start of Week 17. For those, here’s the same data, only with the final game for each team removed.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 2-16) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | T | Pct |
| Tennessee | 93 | 131 | 0 | .415 |
| Indianapolis | 95 | 128 | 1 | .426 |
| Houston | 101 | 122 | 1 | .453 |
| Jacksonville | 103 | 121 | 0 | .460 |
| Philadelphia | 104 | 120 | 0 | .464 |
| NY Giants | 105 | 119 | 0 | .469 |
| Pittsburgh | 106 | 117 | 1 | .475 |
| Cleveland | 109 | 115 | 0 | .487 |
| Seattle | 109 | 115 | 0 | .487 |
| Buffalo | 109 | 114 | 1 | .489 |
| Atlanta | 109 | 114 | 1 | .489 |
| Washington | 109 | 114 | 1 | .489 |
| Baltimore | 110 | 114 | 0 | .491 |
| Dallas | 111 | 113 | 0 | .496 |
| Cincinnati | 111 | 112 | 1 | .498 |
| Miami | 112 | 112 | 0 | .500 |
| New Orleans | 113 | 111 | 0 | .504 |
| Tampa Bay | 114 | 110 | 0 | .509 |
| Denver | 114 | 110 | 0 | .509 |
| Arizona | 114 | 109 | 1 | .511 |
| New England | 115 | 109 | 0 | .513 |
| Oakland | 115 | 108 | 1 | .516 |
| St. Louis | 115 | 108 | 1 | .516 |
| San Diego | 116 | 108 | 0 | .518 |
| San Francisco | 118 | 106 | 0 | .527 |
| Minnesota | 118 | 105 | 1 | .529 |
| Detroit | 119 | 105 | 0 | .531 |
| Green Bay | 120 | 104 | 0 | .536 |
| Kansas City | 121 | 102 | 1 | .542 |
| Chicago | 122 | 102 | 0 | .545 |
| NY Jets | 122 | 101 | 1 | .547 |
| Carolina | 126 | 97 | 1 | .565 |
—Ian Allan

